To Walk Away And Not Make Anything, It’s Devastating
A report from Mortgage Professional America. "A new study by Clever Real Estate surveyed homeowners, renters, and prospective buyers to get a sense of their financial situation, and their plans to sell or buy. The findings suggest that the economic downturn will be longer, and maybe deeper, than experts currently project, and that a disproportionate amount of the pain may hit mortgage servicers. 27% of sellers had dropped the price of their listing in March, in hopes of attracting a quick buyer; in April, only 11% had bothered to cut their price, possibly because there simply aren’t any buyers out there to attract."
"However, only 53% of renters were worried about their future ability to afford a house. On the other side of the coin, 63% of homeowners were worried about the value of their investments."
"The problem is, the government didn’t make any accommodations for the loan servicers who are no longer receiving payments. It’s the domino effect; just as rent-striking tenants endangered landlords who had to make mortgage payments, suspending homeowner mortgage payments has endangered the mortgage servicers who process those payments."
"A huge portion of the market could be impacted by widespread forbearance; in 2019, two-thirds of mortgages were originated by non-bank lenders like Quicken Loans or Freedom Mortgage, up from less than 40% in 2013. Since these nonbank lenders are, well, not banks, they don’t have deposits to draw on to pay investors, and they aren’t required to keep as much capital on hand to make their payments. That means that they could be seriously cash strapped, just as their cash flow dries up. It’s the equivalent to someone living paycheck-to-paycheck—but on a billion-dollar scale."
"But some government officials think the industry is exaggerating. FHFA chief Mark Calabria told Housing Wire that industry estimates of forbearance 'just don’t match anything we’re seeing at all,' and said industry calls for help were just a way to avoid selling assets at low prices to generate liquidity. Even more worrisome, he added that the federal government doesn’t consider any nonbank lender 'too big to fail,' and implied that a bailout might not come if one of them began to go under."
The Commercial Observer on New York. "Tavros Holdings founder Nicholas Silver has waited more than four years to finish The Dime, a 23-story tower in the heart of Williamsburg’s lively south side neighborhood. Before the coronavirus pandemic swept across the region, a multifamily complex with a massive retail space in Brooklyn’s hottest neighborhood was considered a lucrative asset. But some amenities that were must-haves in luxury housing complexes as little as two month ago have suddenly become passé."
"The glut of housing supply could benefit tenants who may find their landlord is more willing to offer concessions or renegotiate a lease than risk keeping the unit vacant in the coming months. 'People will be making downwardly mobile decisions,' architect Gene Kaufman told CO. 'They’re pairing up, moving to smaller places, and moving out of the city or moving to a more distant location that’s less expensive. And the impact of people who did not pay their rent is still unknown.'"
The Los Angeles Times in California. "'Landlords are always going to try to keep their rent roll looking good,' said Evan Raciti, executive vice president of RentHop. 'So they won’t want to drop the prices right away.' Instead, the prevalence of 'concession offers' — such as a lower security deposit or free first month’s rent — has increased, especially in dense metropolitan areas. 'But if that doesn’t do the trick,' Raciti said, 'you’re going to see a glut of supply the next couple months, and I would imagine we’re going to start seeing actual gross rent start dropping, along with the incentives increasing.'"
From Patch Brentwood in California. "Consolidation is hitting the market for short-term home rentals as the coronavirus pandemic has curtailed travel dramatically this year. Small landlords and venture-backed companies that collected properties to rent out as short-term vacation rentals are offloading them in an effort to cut their losses. Sandra Jones has been in the short-term rental business for six years, renting her properties in Los Angeles , California. After the coronavirus hit in March, Jones said she lost most of her bookings. That made things particularly difficult for the Venice Beach property, which gets most of its business in the summer."
From CNBC. "Lynn Prehm has been in the short-term rental business for six years, renting her properties in Cave Creek, Arizona, and La Porte, Indiana. After the coronavirus hit in March, Prehm said she lost most of her bookings. Facing uncertainty as to when the vacation market would resume, and with looming mortgage, utilities and maintenance payments, Prehm and her husband decided to put the property up for sale. The home was sold within a week, along with the furniture Prehm used to house guests. Though the sale was quick, Prehm and her husband lost money on the sale."
"'We put a lot of work into making it perfect,' Prehm said. 'To walk away and not make anything, it’s devastating, but at some point you have to be happy that you’re walking away and not losing a ton.'"
From WTVF in Tennessee. "Thousands of Nashville short-term rentals have sat empty for month as COVID-19 has put the city on pause, forcing some rental owners to sell their properties. 'It has been tough, I guess, I don't know how else to sum it up,' Megan McCrea, the president of the Nashville Area Short-Term Rental Association (NASTRA), said. McCrea said her five rental units have only had a handful of guests since stay-at-home orders first went into effect in mid-March. While she decided to keep her properties, she said other NASTRA members have had to sell."
"'On some of my properties my property tax would be far more than my mortgage,' McCrea said. 'This isn't like its impacting out of state people, 80 percent are within the state, these are your neighbors, these are your friends.'"
From My Panhandle in Florida. "Companies like Airbnb and VRBO have changed the short-term rental game. Real estate attorney Brandon Burg said that a lot of individuals rely on revenue from their rental properties in a major way. 'They rely on fitting people in those homes and they paid premium prices for those homes to be able to rent them out to a lot of people,' Burg said."
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Houston’s apartment market, which would normally be thriving this time of year, is in a pandemic-induced slump. Apartment occupancy has dipped to about 89 percent, falling about a half percentage point in May, according to new estimates from Houston-based ApartmentData. 'We would normally see bumps in April, May and possibly June, and it’s just not there,' Bruce McClenny, president of the apartment data firm, said. 'We’re seeing this same situation in every market we cover.'"
"In the Class-A apartment category, generally considered to be the newest properties with high-end amenities, the average rent has fallen 3 percent since the end of March to $1,497, the biggest decline among all classes of buildings. A bumper crop of new units could exacerbate the slowdown. Seeking to avoid a flood of empty units, some landlords have waived late fees on rents and offered payment plans to their tenants."
The Post and Courier. "The coronavirus plunged the economy into what many consider a recession as more than 30 million people are out of work, a level not seen since the Great Depression. Property information service CoreLogic predicts the delinquency rate will soar by next year unless government intervention occurs."
"'The pandemic-induced closure of nonessential businesses caused the April unemployment rate to spike to its highest level in 80 years and will lead to a rise in delinquency and foreclosure,' said CoreLogic’s chief economist Frank Nothaft. 'By the second half of 2021, we estimate a four-fold increase in the serious delinquency rate, barring additional policy efforts to assist borrowers in financial distress.'"
"States with already high negative equity share, including Louisiana, Connecticut, Maryland and Illinois, are most at risk for increases in delinquencies. 'After a long period of decline, we are likely to see steady waves of delinquencies throughout the rest of 2020 and into 2021. The pandemic and its impact on national employment is unfolding on a scale and at a speed never before experienced and without historical precedent,' said Frank Martell, CEO of CoreLogic."
The Wall Street Journal. "Andy Posner was standing smack in the middle of the great decimation of Americans’ household finances. His tiny nonprofit lender was flooded with loan applications from the out of work and out of money. Hundreds of other borrowers had stopped making their monthly loan payments. Many Americans have spent years barely getting by—going deep into debt to afford their homes, cars and other necessities. Nearly one-quarter of Americans had no money socked away for a rainy day heading into the coronavirus pandemic, and less than half had more emergency savings than credit-card debt, according to surveys from Bankrate.com."
"For Mr. Posner, the crisis has exposed a weakness in the U.S. financial system: the overextended U.S. consumer. A debt burden that seemed manageable when everyone had a job became unbearable in a matter of weeks. Many of those obligations are on hold for now. In the meantime, jobless Americans are falling further behind. 'Americans don’t want to admit how tenuous their financial position is,' he said."
"The crisis was a rude awakening for Kevin Smith’s family of seven, which moved to the U.S. from Africa in 2016. In good times, his steady income made it possible to cover the loans on three cars—including a BMW X5—and the occasional Friday dinner out. Now, groceries would have to come from Target or Walmart instead of Whole Foods. Mr. Smith put some of his bicycle equipment for sale on eBay and listed his son’s leather jackets on Poshmark to raise cash. He maxed out his credit card to cover the bills, bringing his credit score down to about 590 from 640."
"'I said, ‘This is where we are at,’ he said. 'You build a lifestyle around an income.'"
"Michele Hamed contacted the firm in early April after her adult son came across the loan program online. Her income dried up in March when the restaurant where she waited tables closed its dining room. Her son, a cook at the same restaurant, wasn’t working, either."
"With two young children also living in their Jacksonville, Fla., home, their finances immediately hit the skids. They ate ramen noodles and picked up canned goods and cereal at food banks. They drove as little as possible. They loaded up on toilet paper from the restaurant. 'We are not even middle class,' Ms. Hamed said. 'We basically live check to check.'"