The Dislocation Is So Widespread It’s Almost Like The Entire Country’s For Sale Right Now
A report from Forbes. "What surprised Brian Carberry, Apartmentguide’s managing editor who crunched the numbers was, 'some of the areas with significant rent decreases were located near more expensive major cities.' Apartmentguide looked at annual average price declines on one-bedroom nationwide. Cities included in the top 25 rankings are Virginia Beach, Virginia, West Hartford, Connecticut, Santa Rosa, California, Huntington Beach, California, and Montgomery, Alabama. Take the Boston suburb of Peabody. Located 13 miles north of Boston, Peabody saw an 18 percent decline to an average monthly rent of $2,276. That was a $512 price drop."
"Heading west to California it is surprising to see five cities made the top 25. Santa Rosa, about an hour drive north of San Francisco, posted a 19 percent decrease with the average rent at $1,980. Consider West Sacramento one of California's fastest-growing cities was at number one with a hefty rent decrease of almost 44 percent. The average price for a one-bedroom there fell by $1,628 to $2,115. In Southern California, Huntington Beach long known for surfing and casual living saw a 22 percent decline with the average one-bedroom renting for $2,194."
"The east bay city of Berkeley also saw a dip in rental prices. Berkeley ranked number twelve with a 22 percent decrease. Oceanside, California a beachside city about 38 miles north of San Diego is at number six. A hefty 26 percent rent decline brings the average one-bedroom down to $1,958."
"Carberry’s advice for renters, 'Even some higher-priced areas are seeing declines and becoming more affordable. There was a construction boom in luxury rental properties around the country. Today they might have trouble filling those units. You may be able to negotiate a better rent because of that.'"
"Well, that's good news for renters and not so good for multi-family owners."
The Seattle Times in Washington. "The coronavirus pandemic has caused most rents in the Seattle area to stagnate, though they’re falling for the least-expensive apartments, according to data from RealPage. One neighborhood — West Seattle — is seeing especially sharp cuts, according to landlords and property managers, though not just from the pandemic. Essex Property Trust, which owns 10,343 apartments in the Seattle metro area, is offering two to four weeks of free rent across its properties."
"Equity Residential, which owns 8,442 apartments around Seattle, saw traffic and leads fall 50% in March and 20% in April, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. Equity is offering $99 security deposits and is allowing new tenants to end leases in the first three months without penalty if they lose their jobs. The amount tenants actually pay could be even less than the advertised deals. Average rents on newly-executed leases around Seattle fell 4.5% in May from a year earlier, as apartment managers offered unadvertised concessions and negotiated down rents to fill vacancies, according to RealPage."
"In West Seattle, landlords and tenants say the biggest pressure on rents isn’t the pandemic, but a concurrent crisis: The closure of the West Seattle bridge. 'In my 30 years of owning buildings, I’ve never experienced what I’m experiencing in West Seattle,' said landlord Morris Groberman, who owns four buildings in West Seattle and several dozen other apartments across the region. 'It’s absolutely bleak.'"
From Real Estate Business Online. "Unfortunately, Dallas multifamily investors aren’t out of the woods yet. The RED Research team expects 2020 job losses to exceed 100,000. Enhanced unemployment benefits notwithstanding, net absorption is likely to be deeply negative, with net move-outs totaling 10,000 units, perhaps more, from April to September, according to our historically specified models. At the same time, supply will be substantial. Currently, approximately 45,000 units are under construction, and about 12,000 to 15,000 units are likely to be delivered between April and December."
"Consequently, metro occupancy rates will decline materially, perhaps testing the 90 percent level before year end, using the Reis baseline, from about 94 percent in March. Rents will come under a degree of pressure as well. Investment returns will suffer accordingly. After enjoying average annual unlevered returns of about 14 percent over the course of the last five years, total returns may be deeply negative this year. Property values could plunge 10 percent or more unless cap rates on current income decrease commensurately."
From Community Impact in Texas. "Houston-area apartments saw another month of declining average rents in May, a month that is usually in the midst of an annual upswing in the industry, driven by an exodus of renters. 'The months of March-April-May and into July, those are the months where we see more demand. And so rents rise year after year, but this is a drastic change from that and understandably so,' said Bruce McClenny, president of ApartmentData."
"One key factor is that for the first time in over a decade, more people are leaving apartments than signing up for new leases, leading to negative absorption, an indicator of supply and demand. In May, Houston typically sees around 1,800 net leases; this May it was minus 200. Occupancy rates dipped below 89% as well, according to ApartmentData. 'More people moving out than moving in, so there’s less people living in apartments,' he said."
The Real Deal on California. "The average asking rent in Los Angeles County declined 3.3 percent in May year-over-year, the first major drop in rent since the Great Recession a decade ago. The drop followed April’s 0.8 percent year-over-year decline, the first since 2010. The coronavirus pandemic resulted in a 'big dropoff in overall demand,' according to RealPage chief economist Greg Willett."
"Some landlords may also be offering concessions such as free months of rent in lieu of dropping rents, allowing them to maintain higher asking rents on paper. That was already happening before the pandemic in Downtown L.A. where demand didn’t keep up with supply. The 4.5 percent decline in the Class B segment was the largest decline among the three segments. The company projects that rents will continue to fall on a year-over-year basis throughout the year and could reach 5.6 percent in the first quarter of 2021."
The Los Angeles Business Journal. "'This is returning to our roots. We started out by buying distressed opportunities,' said Reuben Berman, founder of Entrada Partners. Today, Berman added, Entrada is looking at buying defaulting loans and unsold properties that were on the market before the pandemic 'with a pricing adjustment post-Covid.' The company has a $300 million portfolio, largely in Texas. Berman said Covid-driven market dislocation is creating 'opportunities across the country, and we are interested in areas outside of Texas.'"
"'The dislocation is so widespread it’s almost like the entire country’s for sale right now. The opportunities are everywhere,' he added."
"Berman said one of the biggest challenges is making sure not to buy too soon, before prices bottom out. So far, he said, prices are down about 5% to 10%, but buyers want a 10% to 20% reduction in multifamily, industrial and office properties, and even more for retail and hotel properties."
"MJW Investments has created a $500 million fund to invest in value-add multifamily and student housing, joint ventures, and distressed debt and note sales. Mark Weinstein, MJW’s founder and president, said the company was 'making lots of offers, but nothing is really in escrow.' 'We’re finding there’s a lack of realization on part of the sellers that their income stream is diminishing, rents are declining and vacancies are increasing,' he said."
The Commercial Observer on New York. "The $272 million CMBS loan originated by Credit Suisse and backed by Ceruzzi Properties’ ground lease at the 34-story Lipstick Building at 885 Third Avenue in Midtown Manhattan has been sent to special servicing, according to servicer data from this month compiled by Trepp. According to remittance commentary from the first week of this month, the loan’s special servicer Aegon USA Realty Advisors — a division of Aegon Asset Management — wrote that the borrower had reached out for relief and that 'the ground lease tenant has defaulted in the payment of rent under the terms of the ground lease.'"
The Miami Herald in Florida. "How has COVID affected the local commercial market? One transaction tells the market story. Pre-pandemic, Chicago-based First American Bank agreed to buy a former City National Bank location at SW 97th Avenue and Bird Road for $4.2 million. After coronavirus arrived, the buyer re-negotiated. The deal on the 4,278-square-foot former City National Bank location on the 24,650-square-foot corner lot closed at $3.2 million in May, said Bill Kerdyk, Jr., chief executive officer of Kerdyk Real Estate, who brokered the transaction. It was an all-cash deal."
"'Cash is a big plus to get deals done quickly. At that time, there were not a lot of buyers looking,' Kerdyk said. 'It’s important to the seller that they have a viable buyer.' The building last sold in 2018 for $3.5 million. 'There are buyers out there. The question is the pricing. Buyers are looking for a good opportunity,' Kerdyk said."