A Cascade Of Loss Upon Loss
A report from the Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. "Economic uncertainty during the pandemic has led banks to tighten their lending standards. The supply of mortgage credit has fallen by more than 30% from February to June, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s measure of how easy it is to get a home loan. Darlene Meekins, a Realtor based in Montgomery County, said the raising of minimum credit scores by 100 points — a move she’s seen some lenders make — 'really makes a difference as far as someone in the low to moderate range qualifying. Because of the [stricter] qualifications, some people are struggling to meet those,' said Meekins."
"Affordable Housing Centers of Pennsylvania, which aims to increase housing opportunities for low- and moderate-income households and communities of color, is warning clients about the tighter credit requirements. Before the pandemic, several lenders required a minimum score of 580 for Federal Housing Administration loans with down payments of 3.5%, said Kenneth Bigos, the nonprofit’s executive director. Those same lenders are now requiring a minimum of 640, he said."
"Jeff Ruben, president of WSFS Mortgage, said lenders have to be cautious in the face of economic uncertainty, which is why outside of government-sponsored loans, 'the loans that we’re making today are subject to a much tighter standard' than ever before. In addition to raising minimum credit scores, WSFS and other lenders have less tolerance for debt relative to a buyer’s income."
"'As an industry, we just start tightening to make sure we’re only capturing the very, very best, and the most likely to succeed,' Ruben said. Thirty years 'is a long time to be in partnership with someone, and you’re not sure they’re going to have the same income earnings as they do today.'"
"Lenders want to reduce their risks and keep hold of their cash, which means both tightening credit standards for lower-income borrowers and restricting the lending of 'jumbo' loans for wealthy borrowers, said Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at the Mortgage Bankers Association."
From KTNV in Nevada. "COVID-19 hasn't exactly been kind to real estate agents. 'What we found is we roughly had about 15,000 licensed realtors in Southern Nevada pre-Covid. I was hoping to have an updated accurate number for today, but I'm going to say we have right around 10,000 licensed realtors right now just a few short months later,' said Mark Wiley a real estate broker."
"There is a cautionary note. Wiley says the market in the valley has seen about a 30% decrease each week in homes being listed for sale. He indicates there are a number of reasons why including potential sellers who either lost their jobs or fear losing their jobs and are concerned they won't qualify for a new mortgage after selling their existing home."
From KSL in Utah. "After being among the hottest metro housing markets in the nation prior to the coronavirus outbreak, the Salt Lake City area became one of the areas most hurt by the pandemic. Results showed Salt Lake City as having the second worst decline in housing demand into June. 'We found that Salt Lake City was one of the cities that kind of dropped off and then kind of had steady buyer demand throughout the initial coronavirus lockdown, and then we’ve seen a pretty sharp decrease just since May in buyer demand overall,' according to Clever Real Estate data scientist Francesca Ortegren."
"Ortegren said demand in many of the 50 metros has been affected by numerous factors, including the stability of property values and individual employment. 'A lot of people’s biggest concerns are with the value of their homes. If they own a home now, they’re worried that prices are going to drop and they’re going to lose equity in their home,' she said. 'People who are purchasing or planning to purchase a home, they’re worried about job security and continued income.'"
The Union Tribune in California. "Mortgage interest rates have plummeted in recent days but it is an open question if many San Diegans will be able to buy a home as unemployment remains at historic highs. Q: In San Diego County, will low mortgage interest rates increase the homeownership rate? Gary London, London Moeder Advisors, NO: Not here. While trending lower, interest rates have been low for some time. The problem now is that underwriting is very restrictive. So while interest payments are low, maybe the down payment is high, and buyers mostly need a very clean credit record. Couple that with San Diego’s notoriously low delivery rate of housing, and even lower rate of delivering affordable housing to middle income families, there is likely to be no impact."
"Reginald Jones, Jacobs Center for Neighborhood Innovation, NO: The historically low mortgage rate is not likely to increase San Diego County’s homeownership rate. The uncertainty of COVID-19 is a major inhibitor. The area unemployment is hovering high — around 14 percent — hitting the middle market hard. Given an uncertain economy, families that might meet the down payment hurdle are hoarding their cash. Though the pandemic yielded some price drop, San Diego area housing prices remain high, keeping affordability an issue."
"Bob Rauch, R.A. Rauch & Associates, NO: The combination of unemployment and an unstable market due to the pandemic will prevent many from entering the home buying market. Interest rates are low but may go lower due to the economy. In San Diego, there is no new construction housing and limited inventory. Ergo, no real movement will occur. If pricing softens and interest rates go down even further, we may hit a tipping point where risk and reward is in balance."
"Norm Miller, University of San Diego, YES: But only for a nanosecond, as underwriting will likely be harder, and as benefits and PPP funding runs out, and government layoffs kick in gear, we will see many more foreclosures which will take us in the opposite direction. Keep in mind many businesses are shut down once again, and many will not be able to hang on nor keep employees. Homeownership rates in the fourth quarter of this year will likely dip."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Forbearance programs, which allow borrowers to delay mortgage payments, might also be playing a role in keeping prices high and inventory low. Experts say home sales usually decline before prices do in a market downturn because sellers are reluctant to drop their price until they have to. Under the federal CARES Act, borrowers with a federally backed mortgage can delay payments for up to a year if they have a financial setback stemming from the coronavirus."
"That means many struggling homeowners aren’t entering foreclosure or being forced to sell rapidly to stave off that credit-ruining prospect. Forbearance, however, eventually ends, and borrowers may lose their homes if they can’t afford to make up the missed payments. The resurgent coronavirus also threatens to throw more people out of work, and expanded unemployment benefits under the CARES Act will expire soon."
"For her part, San Fernando Valley agent Dolle is bracing for a slowdown, believing the market is topping out. Mark Perez, a real estate agent in the Los Angeles area, agreed. 'It can’t continue at this pace with record unemployment and small businesses going belly up,' he said. 'It’s just not sustainable.'"
From Realtor.com on Florida. "It’s been over a year since the estate of George Steinbrenner, the late owner of the New York Yankees, went on the market. In May 2019, the Boss's massive, 13,500-square-foot home was listed for sale with a price of $5.75 million. The months have flown by, and the baseball mogul’s family home still hasn’t budged. This isn’t for lack of offers, according to the listing agent, Toni Everett. She told the Tampa Bay Times that offers have been coming through, but they just haven’t been quite right."
"In an attempt to coax out an acceptable offer, a hefty $1.3 million was slashed from the price in mid-July, and the mansion is now listed at $4.4 million."
The New York Times. "Editors and account managers at the Time & Life Building in Midtown Manhattan could once walk out through the modernist lobby and into a thriving ecosystem that existed in support of the offices above. To approach this block today is like visiting a relative in the hospital. The building, rebranded a few years ago and renovated to fit 8,000 workers, now has just 500 a day showing up. The steakhouse dining rooms are dark."
"On a sidewalk once lined with food carts, a lone hot-dog vendor stood one recent Friday on a corner below the building. His name is Ahmed Ahmed, and he said he used to sell 400 hot dogs a day. How many now? 'Maybe 10.'"
"Midtown Manhattan, the muscular power center of New York City for a century, faces an economic catastrophe, a cascade of loss upon loss that threatens to alter the very identity of the city’s corporate base. The coronavirus’s toll of lost professions, lost professionals and untold billions of lost income and tax revenue may take years to understand and resolve."
"Midtown remains stuck in a purgatorial Phase Zero, its very purpose — to bring as many human beings together as possible — strangling most hope of a convincing comeback in the foreseeable future and offering a sign of what may lie in store for business districts across the country. Upstairs, floors are mostly empty, as companies reassess their need for office space, raising serious questions about the future of the city’s commercial real estate market."
"Downstairs, streets were lined with the creature comforts that made working in Midtown not only bearable, but even fun. They are vanishing, and with them, the men and women who fed, clothed, poured drinks for and drove the people in those tall buildings. The Men’s Wearhouse below the former Time & Life Building, now named 1271 Avenue of the Americas (its address), remained boarded up for months. The store reopened early this month, its role in offering and tailoring custom business and formal attire perhaps never less relevant."
"The staffs of the steakhouses were furloughed months ago. Mr. Ahmed, the hot dog vendor, looking over what should be prime real estate outside Radio City Music Hall at West 50th Street, said he was thinking of cutting back to every other day. Last year on June 24, a Monday, there were 62,312 MetroCard turnstile swipes as riders entered the station. On the comparable Monday this year, June 22, the number of swipes was 8,032, a staggering 87 percent decrease."
"Daniel A. Biederman, executive director of the Bryant Park Business Improvement District, said that for the sake of the neighborhood’s very identity, Midtown executives who fled the city to work remotely should feel a moral purpose to come back as soon as safely possible. 'They’ve almost made the unpatriotic decision for Midtown Manhattan,' he said. 'We need them back.'"