A Fear Of Overpaying For A Depreciating Asset
Two reports from the Globe and Mail in Canada. "This two-bedroom, two-bathroom 811-square-foot unit is in a 21-year-old building in South Vancouver, overlooking the Fraser River. The seller was moving out of town and the property was originally listed for $550,000. The buyer made an offer just as the lockdown had begun, but did not remove the conditions of sale. There were few in-person showings, according to listing agent Keith Roy. 'When no offers came in, the seller lowered the price and the buyer came back with a reduced price and only one day of conditions and a quick close,' Mr. Roy said. 'In the midst of COVID, home sellers had to take reduced prices.'"
"Agent Clare Packer expected developers would flock to this ageing two-storey residence for its irregular, 82-by 144-foot lot in a prime neighbourhood near the North Saskatchewan River. But listed last winter with an ambitious asking price of $1.5-million, only one lowball offer was registered and quickly rejected. In recognition of the harsh market conditions, the home was relisted in April priced at $1.185-million."
"'St Georges Crescent has some of the most coveted real estate in the entire city,' said Ms. Packer."
The Motley Fool. "The coronavirus put a dead stop on anyone hoping to easily sell their homes. In some cases, with job loss reaching sky-high levels, that meant selling your home for a fraction of its worth. I don’t think Canadians will suddenly stop having kids. The main focus tends to be on immigration. In April, immigrants coming to Canada dropped by 80% since the same period in 2019. Canada’s largest cities of Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Calgary could be the worst hit, with immigration being cut in half and unemployment expected to increase and remain high through 2022."
The Western Investor. "Reverberations from COVID-19 are shaking up the Metro Vancouver’s rental-home market, where the tourism downturn has forced some landlords to stop renting homes via sites such as Airbnb and instead seek long-term tenants. 'My general belief is that a long slowdown would be bad for rents and home prices,' said Tom Davidoff, director of the University of British Columbia’s Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate. 'When I say bad for the market, I mean the price goes down, not that it is bad from a social welfare perspective.'"
"Davidoff agreed with Real Estate Investment Network senior adviser Don Campbell, who recently told Business in Vancouver that the pandemic could be a 'psychological shock' to over-leveraged homeowners and investors, who may decide to scale back large mortgages and exposure to real estate investments. Small-business owners hammered with forced business disruptions may also decide to sell their homes to provide capital for their businesses, Davidoff suggested."
From Blog TO. "Rent prices continue to fall in the City of Toronto this month, even as pandemic restrictions gradually lift and life bounces back to ('a new') normal. The July 2020 report from rentals.ca and Bullpen Research & Consulting puts the average monthly price of a one-bedroom apartment in Toronto at just $2,063 — down 9.3 per cent, year over year, and 1.9 per cent from the month previous."
"'There has been much discussion over the last three months regarding how the influx of units that were previously being used as short-term rentals has impacted rental rates in Toronto,' writes Bullpen Research president Ben Myers in the report, referring to a recent flood of Airbnb units being transformed into long-term rental housing and upping supply levels."
"'There is a significant number of apartments under construction in Toronto, which start to add even more supply to the market and potentially put more downward pressure on rental rates,' the firm notes."
"Condo rents are still plummeting. 'This type of monthly rent volatility is rarely observed,' notes rentals.ca. 'But keep in mind many landlords are offering incentives, with a number of new purpose-built rental apartments offering two months free rent.'"
From Mortgage Broker News. "Online marketplace Real Estate Wire (REW.ca) has announced the addition of more than 10,000 rental listings to its platform. The 10,000 new additions are located in BC, Alberta, and Ontario. Data from analytics firm AirDNA showed that long-term residential supply has noticeably improved as Airbnb and similar services have scaled back because of the COVID-19 pandemic."
"'We are seeing an incredible new amount of inventory of furnished units come onto the long-term rental market over the last few months,' said Andrew Harrild, co-founder of Condos.ca."
From Castanet. "Residents of a ritzy West Kelowna neighbourhood say they are are being driven out of their million dollar homes by short-term 'party houses.' Sabine Zerwes says things began to go wrong in the Pinot Noir Drive neighbourhood above Mission Hill Winery about three years ago when a Vancouver man purchased a home and began renting it out as a weekly short-term rental."
"She says the homeowner purchased the home next to her, put in a pool, and began renting it out last month. 'He just bought another home on Pinot Gris,' says Zerwes. 'He put a big pool in there, and plans to start advertising that home next week. Three homes, four to five bedrooms each that are being rented out on a weekly basis. This is illegal - we all know it.'"
"Zerwes says people are constantly coming and going, and the noise is, at times, unbearable with six to eight adults and kids running around at all hours. Some people, she says, have become fed up, and moved away. '(It's a) Very lovely neighbourhood… we're all retirees. We spent a lot of money on our million dollar homes to live in a quiet, beautiful, quaint neighbourhood and, trust me, these party homes are not adding value to our street at all.'"
From CBC News. "A real estate agent who has managed several Airbnb listings in an East Vancouver building for years has been ordered to stop using his condos as short-term rentals. According to a recent decision from the B.C. Civil Resolution Tribunal, condo owner Zulkider Jiwa argued the rentals should be allowed because they were for stays 30 days or longer and therefore complied with city bylaws. Ulrike Rodrigues, a strata council member who has fought against Jiwa's Airbnb listings for the last five years, says she and the rest of the strata were relieved to hear the tribunal's decision."
"She first voiced her opposition to Jiwa's Airbnb listings in 2015, well before the City of Vancouver instated stricter laws in 2018 to regulate rentals shorter than 30 days. 'When you move into a building and you're surrounded by neighbours and you're in a nice neighbourhood, you don't expect to be hearing rolling suitcases all hours of the night,' she said. 'You don't expect to see strangers in the hallways.'"
The Recorder and Times. "Potential short-term accommodation (STA) hosts in Gananoque are frustrated with what they see as the town’s refusal to engage with them before coming up with a new bylaw, last December, that appears to prohibit them from operating within the town. All of the Airbnb/Homestay/Vacation Rental hosts interviewed said they felt the town was doing everything in its power to shut them down. 'I received a letter saying I was operating illegally, though they really shouldn’t have known how to reach me,' said Andrew Lunman, an Airbnb host."
From News 1130. "The same week B.C.’s finance minister said housing sales dropped a whopping 45 per cent because of the pandemic, some real estate watchers say the situation isn’t so bad, but others are convinced it will take several months for the Metro Vancouver market to rebound. Carole James says prices fell four per cent between February and May, but Michael Ferreira who is the managing principal of Urban Analytics (which tracks data for developers) says prices are already coming back up."
"However, Dane Eitel with Eitel Insights predicts prices will continue to drop until at least next year. 'The truth is the inventory is rising. The condo market had 2800 brand new, active listings in the month of June. That was the highest month since 2012. There’s not a pent up need to buy, but there is a pent up need to sell.'"
"He adds sales in May were the worst they’ve been in 15 years with only 325 more detached homes and 450 extra condos sold in June. 'The inventory in the detached market grew more than 700 and the condo market grew over a thousand from the previous month, so you tell me where is the pent up demand? Most markets in detached properties will be in 2021, the condo market will likely be in 2022, so we will eventually be positive about this market, but as it currently sits, it’s very difficult to be an optimist, unless you’re a real estate activist. You’re not really acting as an analyst.'"
"Eitel insists some buyers are already taking their time because they’re worried about paying too much for something they can get for a better price next year. 'That is a fear of overpaying for a depreciating asset, so into 2021 when prices are attractive, buyers will be fearful that prices will continue to go lower and that will be a tragedy for those that miss out on this historic opportunity upcoming. Some sellers are seeing that they will need to sell, but praying and holding on for dear life that won’t come to fruition, but eventually it will. In 2021, you will see the roll out of foreclosures and that’s where the investor mindset starts to change and starts to purchase properties at a discount. And, that will force the average sale price lower because no longer are they looking at mansions that were selling for $17-million and actually selling at $12-million. They’ll be looking at properties listed for a million and maybe selling for $800-thousand.'"
"On Tuesday, the provincial government predicted a $12.5 billion deficit linked to the pandemic with Finance Minister Carole James saying, 'This could be the worst downturn experienced in our province in recent history.'"