It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "Hedge funds and mutual funds are among bond holders that could lose $2 billion as a consequence of U.S. lawmakers letting millions of homeowners delay their mortgage payments. At stake are so-called credit-risk-transfer securities. The securities, which threaten to lead to estimated losses of between $1 billion and $2 billion, are intended to shift the risk of borrower defaults on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages to private investors. If borrowers don’t leave forbearance by the six-month mark, which for many borrowers will be in September, 'it really is going to be a problem for those bonds,' said Fitch Ratings analyst Suzanne Mistretta."

"Everything happens for a reason. This week, some lenders began offering the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage below the 2% threshold, landing at 1.99%, albeit with more than 2 points cost. Now, about that sanity check. Even when we miraculously get ahead of this in the form of a vaccine, the economy will likely be too far gone. More than anything else, jobs drive the economy, consumer confidence, housing prices and spur the direction of mortgages rates. We are in the throes of double-digit national unemployment. California is hovering around 16%!"

"Business bankruptcy attorney Richard Golubow of Winthrop, Golubow, Hollander expects an avalanche of business bankruptcies after the November presidential election. 'In many cases, the coronavirus crisis exposed deeper systemic problems, like staggering unstainable debts run up by companies with unprofitable business models,' said Golubow. 'Ultimately, government intervention in the form of printing and giving away money will end, and credit lines and bonds will need to be repaid.'"

"At least one real estate broker said she’s lost a potential out-of-state buyer because of the news coverage of damage done by vandals or looters in Downtown Seattle. Windermere Real Estate broker Tracy Treseder said things seem to be changing in Seattle and not for the better. 'It's difficult everywhere. But anywhere near Cap Hill, or the downtown corridor, South Lake Union, there’s a lot of people who want to leave the city right now,' said Treseder."

"Apartment rents across New York City have been falling since March, and it could be a long time before they start to pick up again. As people leave the city in droves, demand for rental units is down significantly and rent prices have taken a hit. With tens of thousands of new units currently in construction expected to hit the market over the next 18 months, experts anticipate rents will continue to drop well into 2021. 'We are seeing price drops to be competitive because of this large supply of inventory across the boroughs,' MNS Vice President of New Development Stephanie Andrews said. 'We’re seeing those pockets and areas, where traditionally the student population flock to, where [excess supply] is more apparent.'"

"Sales of single-family homes and condos dropped by double digits in June, according to The Warren Group. Massachusetts saw a 23.4 percent decrease in single-family home sales and a 30.7 percent drop in condo sales. Condo sellers reported a 5.7 percent year-over-year drop in the median sales price to $396,000. 'The median condo price took its first year-over-year dip in 14 months,' CEO Tim Warren said."

"It looks like investors are starting to ditch (or at least reconfigure) the downtown Toronto condo units they've been using for short-term rentals in buildings 'known to be popular on Airbnb.' 'New listings in June 2020 for City of Toronto condo apartment rentals grew 83% year-over-year with 6,845 units added to the market in June,' reads a report by Zoocasa. 'Comparatively, rental new listings for the buildings included in our analysis grew a staggering 257% annually, with 350 units listed in June compared to 98 last year.'"

"Ice Condos I and II on York Street posted a particularly high rental listing growth rate of 547 per cent, year over year. Almost 100 new units — roughly seven per cent of the entire building — hit the market from that famously Airbnb-stacked condo complex alone last month. In terms of units for sale, new listings across the 10 buildings analyzed grew by 108 per cent between June of 2019 and June of 2020, compared to a 63 per cent jump the year previous."

"Private rents are falling in London at an extraordinary pace. Figures prepared for the Guardian by Rightmove reveal that in zone 2 of the capital, rental asking prices are down by 8% since February alone. They are falling even more dramatically in the heart of the city (down 18%), but that’s only the international market, which has little to do with real workers. What the zone 2 figures (they cover areas such as Hackney, Brixton, Camden Town, Finsbury Park, Hammersmith and others) tell us is that tenants are fleeing London, and the property market is cracking."

"Meanwhile, all those Airbnb investors with no holidaymakers around are throwing their flats on to the longer-term rental market. A south-west London letting agency manager told me clients are simply no longer fussed about being close to a tube for work. 'Sharer properties are struggling a lot – people don’t want to move in if their job is insecure … Tenants are putting in low offers, and we’re telling landlords that if they are quality tenants, they should accept and maybe try to renegotiate back up next year.' She added that the agency’s rental 'stock' is three times normal levels – and if university students don’t make it back in September, that number will jump even higher."

"CBRE Israel CEO Jacky Mukmel said, 'In retail trading there is a difference between food consumption, which rose and the other retail sectors such as clothing, electronic goods, mobile phones and others, which fell. The public are not currently in the mood to buy new clothes or new perfume. Most areas of retail are in a war of survival. You can walk around the shopping malls and see people moving about with few bags in their hands, and the tills aren't ringing.'"

"Many buildings in downtown Ho Chi Minh City have signs looking for new tenants as businesses hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic stay away. Binh, a District 1 real estate broker in business for nearly 10 years, said this was the most severe crisis for the rental market he has seen. Instead of customers lining up to rent townhouses and owners charging high rents, landlords are facing a wave of rent cuts and termination of tenancies, he said. Savills said potential tenants are looking for place with rental discounts of up to 40 percent from last year."

"Sydney’s property market is going backwards for the first time since early 2019. Domain House Price Report data, released Thursday, showing the median house price dropped by almost $23,000 over the three months to June. Across the city, the inner regions were hit hardest by house price falls, dropping $100,000 in the inner west, $125,500 on the lower north shore, $91,000 in the city and eastern suburbs, and $62,500 on the northern beaches."

"The inner-city apartment towers in Melbourne and Sydney, the icons of the last housing boom, are the hardest-hit sectors of the COVID-19 recession. The Reserve Bank, at its July meeting, pointedly noted the 'weak conditions' in the rental market, stressing, in particular, the 'increase in the supply of rental housing in some areas' and the 'reduced flow of new arrivals to Australia.'"

"Nowhere are those factors more at play than in the apartment towers of Melbourne and Sydney. Tenants able to take advantage of the opportunity have a windfall. Rents have been cut, better terms negotiated and moves made to bigger apartments at less cost. For investors, it is a painful experience, but with parallels to the downturns in Perth and Darwin which followed the collapse of the mining investment boom."

"'Brian Haratsis, executive chairman of property consultancy MacroPlan says that since 2015, one quarter of all off-the-plan sales have been valued on settlement at 20 per cent or more below the purchase price and have been supported only by the rental income. 'When the rent stops, and the banks revalue the apartments, a contagion effect could set in, breaking confidence in the housing market and setting a momentum for declining prices,' says Haratsis."