Here You See A Cliff
Two reports from the Wall Street Journal. "The pandemic has raised important questions about the future of New York City. Clues to the answers—or a way to bet on them—can be found daily in the price moves of four real-estate investment trusts that have a majority of their assets in New York and trade on public stock exchanges. They own stakes in dozens of Manhattan towers. The stocks of New York REITs Empire State Realty Trust Inc.; SL Green Realty., which is Manhattan’s largest office landlord; Vornado Realty Trust; and Paramount Group. all took hits of more than 54% during the one-month bear market in the spring, compared with the broader market’s drop of 35%."
"But unlike the broader market, which has regained three-fourths of its bear-market losses, none of the REITs have recovered one-fourth of theirs, and Empire State has recently traded near its lows. Their stock prices actually began declining four to five years ago. The city’s office rents have leveled off since then partly due to new supply at the Hudson Yards complex."
"The volume of commercial property sales in New York City cratered in the second quarter because of the new coronavirus pandemic, a trend that will likely accelerate in the last half of the year with painful consequences for city tax collections. The decline in the number of sales occurred at a much faster pace than in the latest recession, when there was a more gradual quarter-to-quarter fall, said Adrian Mercado, B6 Real Estate chief information officer. 'Here you see a cliff,' he said. 'It’s a threat that commercial real estate has never really faced before in this city.'"
The Real Deal on New York. "Over the past decade, Long Island City became the ultimate testing ground for New York City’s new development market. Its proximity to Manhattan and mass transit, the availability of relatively cheap land and a promising waterfront combined to create a wave of for-sale towers, each one upping the next in terms of amenities. What is clear now, however, is that there remains a significant glut of unsold inventory in the shiny Queens neighborhood. Out of the 1,945 condo units completed in Long Island City since 2018, nearly 60 percent are unsold, according to Kael Goodman, CEO of real estate analytics firm Marketproof."
"The problem, according to some agents who work in the area, is a mismatch between the kind of product buyers want and what’s actually available in the area. 'If you’re a shoemaker, and 60 percent of your shoes haven’t sold, you’ve either made the wrong shoes, or you’ve made too many,' he told the New York Times."
"'Today, if I could get my money out, I’d consider it,' Gary Hirshfield, a recent buyer at the project, told the Times."
From Westfair Online in Connecticut. "The Fairfield home that inspired the Pepperidge Farm baked goods brand had its listing price cut for the second time this year. The 12-room home is on a 4.49-acre parcel within The Ridge gated community, although it is not part of the homeowners association. It was originally listed in April 2018 at $3.49 million and has been on and off the market since October 2018 at $2.9 million. In March, the price was slashed to $2.69 million and it is now listed at $2.45 million."
From Patch Pennsylvania. "A mansion in the Warminster area built for a celebrity is now on the market for nearly $1 million less than it was originally listed. The 7-bedroom, 6-bathroom mansion, which checks in at 12,586 square feet, has had $200,000 knocked off its price and is now going for $2,495,000. In February, sellers had lopped $700,000 off of their asking price, which originally had been $3,395,000."
The Real Deal on Florida. "The landlord of a WeWork location in South Beach is looking to evict the embattled co-working giant for what it says is more than $650,000 in unpaid rent. A photo obtained by The Real Deal shows the three-day notice tacked onto the door of the 43,500-square-foot building at 429 Lenox Avenue, which is fully occupied by WeWork. In New York, the co-working company is shutting down its first-ever location as it overhauls its massive real estate portfolio following its failed IPO attempt last year."
From Evanston Now in Illinois. "Coworking is trying to cope with COVID. The shared-workspace businesses, which first came to Evanston about a decade ago, are facing many of the same troubles that the giant office towers face in downtown Chicago. Workers are working from home, and there’s no telling how long that may continue. Miguel Wong owns CoLab on Chicago Avenue. 'My honest opinion,' Wong says, 'a lot of the trade articles out there are very optimistic, but I can tell you talking to space owners it’s a very different story.' Wong says his membership, clients who rent space, is half of what it was before the coronavirus."
"At Creative Coworking on Davis Street, owner Angela Valavanis is seeing the same thing -- a lot more empty desks than before the pandemic. 'It’s a little nerve-wracking now,' she says."
From SFist in California. "Sonder, the company that offers corporate-style rentals of furnished units for several months at a time and which controversially took control of a 52-unit at the intersection of Church and Market Streets last summer, is now suing to get out of its lease at the property, citing the pandemic. What seemed like a good idea a year ago — offering rentals of 30 days or more at rates well above market for transient tech workers and the like — no longer seems like a viable business plan, apparently. And Sonder wants out."
"The case of 2100 Market Street, a seven-story building on the former Home restaurant site that went through multiple design iterations before starting construction in early 2017, was the latest in a decade of angry-making loopholes and debates about short-term rentals and their impact on San Francisco housing availability. As the SF Business Times reports, the SF-based company has filed suit against developer Brian Spiers to get him to honor what it says are its contractual early termination rights for the lease."
"While the city for years has made efforts to make developers build more affordable units, the Planning Commission was never made aware that this building was set to open outside the regular rental housing market altogether — even though legally Spiers was within his rights to use the units in this way, and so long as the stays were over 30-days this didn't technically count as a 'short-term' rental property subject to the city's Airbnb-inspired regulations."
"The market for two- and three- and six-month rentals at super-sized prices seems to have evaporated. And if Sonder gets their way and gets out of this lease, it will mean that the 52 units that were not already designated as affordable, below-market-rate rentals will enter the regular market where rental rates for one-bedroom units in particular have been plummeting in the last month."
"Interestingly, two weeks ago, Sonder just closed a Series E funding round of $170 million, boosting its valuation to $1.3 billion. This despite the hotel and hospitality industry in general being in dismal shape around the globe — and despite Sonder having to lay off or furlough a third of its staff back in March."
The Star Advertiser in Hawaii. "Production of a mainly midpriced Kakaako condominium tower has run into trouble because of COVID-19, but the developer believes several planned changes that include pricing more units for less will overcome setbacks. The 42-story project called Ililani held a groundbreaking ceremony in October on a lot fronting Keawe and Halekauwila streets to celebrate construction expected to start in November following high interest from prospective buyers."
"That interest included 564 applications for a lottery to buy 165 one- and two-bedroom units reserved for moderate-income households at prices from $312,000 to $657,100. Another 163 units with two bedrooms were priced from $700,500 to $905,500 and represented some of the least pricey market-rate condos to hit Kakaako in three or four years amid several new luxury towers with average prices of $1 million or more."
"However, fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has shattered Hawaii’s economy and left many prospective buyers unable or hesitant to sign purchase contracts for new homes in the Ililani tower, which would take about two years to build. With about a third of units sold, the project’s lender would not release money for construction. To adjust Ililani LLC, proposes repricing some units."