In Distress And May Have To Sell, But It’ll Be At Fire-Sale Prices
A report from Yahoo Finance. "A potential housing crisis is on the way for millions of Americans whose mortgage and rent deferrals are about to sunset. 'There are millions of Americans now unemployed due to the pandemic with greatly reduced means to keep up on their mortgages,' Todd Teta, ATTOM’s chief product officer, told Yahoo Finance. 'At some point, banks are going to need mortgage holders to pay what they owe and go after those who don't.'"
"Frederick Neustein, a Florida foreclosure attorney, said there’s a misconception that foreclosure proceedings have not been going ahead during the pandemic. In the Sunshine State, Governor Ron DeSantis ordered a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures until August 1; but in practice, Neustein said the order only stops law enforcement and judges from finalizing proceedings."
"'I’m getting dozens of calls every day with clients getting serviced with foreclosure papers,' Neustein said. 'Banks are mostly going forward,' he said. 'Once we see these forbearances end, we are expecting a huge wave.'"
The New York Post. "With roughly 700,000 renters thrown out of work and evictions banned for the interim, a full quarter of tenants have gone four months without paying rent, Bloomberg Businessweek reports. They’re still on the hook for it, though — often with no idea how they can ever pay. And that’s left many landlords unable to cover all their bills. The Community Housing Improvement Program, a group representing mostly smaller landlords of rent-stabilized buildings, estimates that 20 percent of its members are in distress and may have to sell properties to stay afloat."
"But it’ll be at fire-sale prices, since the crisis has exposed new risks to owning a city apartment building — and to living in one: Market rents are actually falling in many areas, and vacancy rates rising."
From Real Estate Weekly on New York. "Manhattan saw an unprecedented halt in investment sales activity in the second quarter due to COVID-19, falling to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2009, according to Avison Young’s 2Q20 Property Sales Report for Manhattan. The quarter tallied 30 transactions and $753 million in total dollar volume, down 56 percent and 83 percent, respectively, from the trailing four quarter average."
"'In normal markets there are enough data points to project market pricing trends,” said James Nelson, Principal and Head of Tri-State Investment Sales for Avison Young. 'However, with few data points, combined with the long nature of a real estate transaction, there were not enough transactions to say definitively what pricing correction may result from this period.'"
From Spectrum News on Kentucky. "Finding a vacant or boarded up home in Louisville's West End isn't hard to do. On Elliott Ave., you’d have to be blindfolded to miss them. Paul Stillwell knows the exact number. It’s 32. '32 vacant homes on this street,' Stillwell said. And Elliott Avenue is less than a mile long, so from any vantage point, it’s clear how big the problem is. Stillwell met us in one empty lot next to three abandoned homes which is next to more empty lots and homes."
"'Yes, we just tore a home down here. This is an abandoned house, the one next door is an abandoned house,' he said."
From Community Impact in Texas. "The double whammy of a sharp drop in crude oil prices paired with an economic shutdown caused by COVID-19’s spread across Houston was nothing that Houston Realtor Wayne Murray had ever seen before. It was a reaction shared by other real estate agents, such as Kenneth Jones from Coldwell Banker United Realtors, who sells homes in the Inner Loop area. 'It’s been a little bit of a roller coaster,' he said."
"Jumbo loans are defined as home loans above the conforming loan limit imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which in Texas is $424,100. 'They are not federally backed,' said Eyal Karny, a loan officer with the Houston office for Geneva Financial. 'Those products were much more heavily impacted. Jumbo financing was suspended in some cases now because of too high a risk. Jumbo loans in particular have become much more strict, so that affluent base has been affected.'"
From Patch Colorado. "Denver's most expensive home listing has dropped from $13.9 million to $10.9 million. The house, at 460 Saint Paul St. in Cherry Creek, features an elevator to all levels, a two-story gym and weight room, a juice bar lounge, a massage room, a yoga studio and a koi fish pond."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "The price for Matthew Perry’s 'mansion in the sky' is coming back down to earth. The actor relisted his Century City penthouse this week for $27 million, down from $35 million last year. Demi Lovato couldn’t quite turn a profit in the Hollywood Hills. The singer-actress has sold her sleek three-story home for $8.25 million — $5,000 shy of what she paid for the place in 2016. The sale wraps up a multiyear effort from Lovato, who asked $9.495 million for the property in 2018 before trimming the price to $8.995 million last year."
The Silicon Valley Business Journal in California. "The percentage of Bay Area renters and homeowners who made full on-time payments for this month was 15% less than it was for June, according to Apartment List. The percentage of people who didn't pay anything on time from June to July also increased, from 11% to 16%, the survey results said. Rob Warnock, a research associate at Apartment List, said in a Friday email that due to the Bay Area's current unemployment situation and that it has the nation's highest housing costs, 'it makes sense that a lot of Bay Area residents don't have the savings to cover 4+ consecutive months of rent.'"
"The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) right now estimates employment in the San Francisco and San Jose metro areas to be 12.7% and 11.2%, respectively. At this time last year, those figures were only 2.3% and 2.2%. The spike in missed and partial rent and home payments ties into growing concern about future evictions and foreclosures, despite eviction protections recently being extended in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties and in the city of San Francisco."
"46% of Bay Area residents said they are at least somewhat concerned about losing their housing in the next six months, compared to 35% nationally, according to Apartment List survey data. The company also said that 31% of Bay Area residents said that as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, they are now more likely to move before the end of the year, compared to 21% overall."
"Somewhat ironically, the increase in the missed payment rate from June to July could be a reflection of the Bay Area’s tenant-friendly eviction protections that are expiring in many other states across the country even as Covid-19 cases rise dramatically, Warnock said. He added that some Bay Area families may be prioritizing other forms of essential spending because they know they won't immediately lose their housing."
"'That obviously doesn’t solve the problem — housing payments are not being forgiven, they are just being delayed — but it does provide some breathing room for people who are in a financial bind,' he said."
From Socket Site in California. "The number of homes on the market in San Francisco, net of new sales and contract signings, has jumped another 10 percent over the past week to 1,290, which is 98 percent more inventory on the market as there was at the same last year a new 9-year high. The number of single-family homes currently listed for sale in San Francisco (360) is now running 55 percent higher than at the same time last year while the number of condos (930), which tends to be a leading indicator for the market as a whole, is up by over 120 percent."
"At the same time, the percentage of homes on the market in San Francisco which have undergone at least one official price cut has ticked up to 23 percent. And as such, there are now 130 percent more reduced listings on the MLS than there were at the same time last year, and five times (5x) the number of reduced listings than there were in July of 2015, for the most reduced listings, in the absolute, since the fourth quarter of 2011."
From Arlington Now in Virginia. "As anticipated, it was a slow week for Arlington real estate — one of just a few weeks each year where we can expect volume to decrease significantly — this year it was down about 50% from the week prior. Sellers listed some 79 properties for sale this week while buyers ratified just 47 contracts, 20 of which were on properties listed since just last week. This leads to a bit of extra inventory this week, but rest assured, buyers will do their part this week and we’ll see new contracts up a good bit next week. We may also see more price reductions than usual as a result of days on market creeping up a bit in the short term."
"That could spell opportunity for some on the buy side — my recommendation: Try to scoop it up before the price reduction; reductions can result in a renewed interest and even spark bidding wars on a not-so-new property. If you see a property that’s been on the market for 14-21 days, there’s a good chance it’s due for a price reduction to stay relevant, especially if sellers keep adding 70+ listings per week."