A report from National Real Estate Investor. "Snowballing distress in commercial real estate loans are threatening to become an avalanche that could overwhelm banks. Getting a glimpse behind the curtain on how bank loans are performing isn’t easy. 'It’s amazing that we have gone from the great financial crisis to now and still have no better transparency into the banks at a granular level as we do with CMBS,' says K.C. Conway, director of research and corporate engagement at the University of Alabama’s Alabama Center for Real Estate."

"In addition, the FDIC is allowing banks to forbear on loans and not have to report them as troubled loans for up to 180 days. 'We’re not going to see anything big show up in the numbers until this deferral period expires,' says Johannes Moller, director in North American banks, at Fitch Ratings."

"There is some data emerging that is providing insight into the potential stress ahead. For example, Trepp has analyzed a diverse portfolio of 13,000 commercial real estate balance sheet loans held by commercial banks. Trepp is forecasting that the cumulative default rate for that dataset will rise from its current 0.5 percent default rate to 6.5 percent."

"The concentration of commercial real estate debt held by banks is concerning, and what is more worrisome is added exposure risk to commercial and industrial (C&I) loans, says Conway. One way that banks were able to lower commercial real estate loan concentration numbers is to structure real estate loans to operating businesses, such as seniors housing, hotels, restaurants and auto dealership as C&I loans with a lien on the real estate. 'I think we are going to find as we peel back the C&I onion that there is a lot of real estate classified as C&I loans in the banks,' he says."

"According to the FDIC, nearly 500 banks failed during and immediately following the Great Financial Crisis. 'I think we could easily end up over the next 18 to 24 months breaking bank closure records. It’s going to be pretty severe, particularly when you look downstream at community banks,' says Conway."

From Marketplace on New York. "Thousands of people have left New York since March due to COVID-19, leaving vacancies in their wake. And what will that mean for the city’s notoriously high rents? Columbia University Professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh said that if federal pandemic benefits expire, we’re likely to see a wave of evictions. 'There’s been fairly generous unemployment insurance with the $600 a week top-offs, which are about to expire in the next several days, leading to some sort of fiscal cliff for a lot of households,' he said."

"Van Nieuwerburgh said that right now, some landlords are letting tenants live in their apartments for free, rather than evict them or lower their rents. Because if landlords lower tenants’ rents, it could make it difficult for them to refinance their mortgages."

The North Bay Business Journal in California. "Katherine Higgins, who works with Marin rental property owners via Berkshire Hathaway/Drysdale Properties Commercial Group, has seen the more affordable units from San Rafael south having a mounting number of vacancies since the pandemic lockdowns. 'The more problems we have with retail store closures, where a lot of the tenants in these units work, the more we’ll see this,' Higgins said. 'We’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg.'"

"Scott Gerber, a multifamily property brokerage specialist with Meridian Commercial said that while higher-end apartments in southern Marin are in demand from higher-income families exiting San Francisco and higher-rent areas on the Peninsula, he’s seen demand slackening off further away from the city. There’s active demand in Petaluma, but Santa Rosa has pockets of challenge. One property there has had 15% vacancy, which is higher than the roughly 5% vacancy seen in Gerber’s recent surveys of thousands of units in both Marin and Sonoma counties."

From SFist in California. "It's beginning to be more of a buyer's market in San Francisco than it has been in over a decade as the number of homes for sale last week reached levels unseen since 2011. And this means that more and more sellers are having to cut their asking prices to garner interest and remain competitive."

"Over the past week, as Socketsite reports, the number of homes for sale in the city rose 6 percent to 1,360, which is a 200-percent increase of inventory over the same time last year. Not since 2010 and 2011 have so many homes in San Francisco been on the market at once, with almost 50 percent more single-family homes on the market than this time last year, and 130 percent more condominiums. Socketsite reported last week, there were 150 percent more reduced-price listings on the MLS in San Francisco than the same time last year."

The Dallas Business Journal in Texas. "New and existing home sales in North Texas rebounded in June, although prices of new homes fell. 'Dallas-Fort Worth new home sales noticeably accelerated in June and home demand is growing as buyers continue to push local pending sales higher,' said Ben Caballero, owner of HomesUSA.com. 'The good news for buyers is that the average new homes price in Dallas-Fort Worth improved a bit in June for the fourth month in a row.'"

From WBRC in Alabama. "For years now, the city has been trying to get a handle on the growth of mega student apartment complexes. Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox believes there is still an oversupply of student apartments in Tuscaloosa. He recommends extending the current apartment moratorium through the end of the year. In a committee meeting this afternoon, city leaders say the rental occupancy rate with student apartments built in the past 10 years is between 50 and 65%. Maddox says that shows how overbuilt those apartments are in Tuscaloosa."

"'I believe that the proliferation of student apartments has led to crime and blight in our community. That’s an opinion based off of facts that have been provided to me,' Maddox said."