We Saw This Exponential Run-Up, It Was Irrational Exuberance
A report from the Review Journal in Nevada. "Las Vegas mortgage delinquencies rose sharply after the coronavirus pandemic devastated the economy. Payments were at least 30 days late on 8.5 percent of Southern Nevada home loans in April, up more than double from 3.4 percent in March, CoreLogic reported. 'Sadly, I’m not surprised that it jumped more in Las Vegas than it did in many other markets,' CoreLogic chief economist Frank Nothaft said of the mortgage delinquency rate. 'It’s totally unprecedented.'"
The Orange County Register in California. "Coronavirus-linked business shutdowns have more than doubled the number of Southern California homeowners who are missing mortgage payments. CoreLogic reports 6% of borrowers in Los Angeles and Orange counties in April were late 30 days or more with their mortgage payments vs. 2.3% delinquent a year earlier. In the Inland Empire, 7.1% of borrowers were at least up 30 days late vs. 3.5% in April 2019. Southern California unemployment was 17% in May."
"It’s not just a local surge of tardy payments. Nationally, the 30-day delinquency rate rose after 27 consecutive months of declines to 6.1% of mortgages, the highest since January 2016. 'SoCal is still faring relatively better than some parts of the country where delinquencies spiked to over 10% in April,' said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s deputy chief economist. 'Data suggests that almost 50% of loans in forbearance are now in an extension following initial forbearance.'"
From KPIX in California. "A controversial short-term rental company is now engaging in a fight with the City of San Francisco. Sonder wants to break its lease on a Market Street, blaming San Francisco for lost revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic. The lawsuit cites San Francisco’s eviction moratorium that prevents landlords from evicting anyone who cannot pay because of financial hardships during COVID-19."
"It states, 'these laws have had a material adverse effect, a crushing one, on Sonder’s operations at the premises.' Sonder can neither effectively market vacant units nor ensure that 'existing tenants pay rent.' Tech companies make up for the majority of tenancies at these intermediate-term occupancy apartments. Neighbors are now wondering if Sonder wins, what happens to the building?"
From Bisnow. "Student housing owners are seeing pre-leasing stall compared to prior years. As of last month, national pre-lease occupancy stood at 74.9%, below the 78.8% seen at that point last year but a notable 6% month-over-month improvement, according to RealPage Market Analyst Carl Whitaker. In May, California State University, the nation’s largest four-year public university system, went almost entirely online across its 23 campuses and approximately 480,000 undergraduate students. Several other big colleges in the state, including UC Los Angeles, UC Irvine and the University of Southern California have decided to follow a similar model, and smaller schools across California have followed suit."
"The result for many of the state’s student housing owners has been a drop in performance for heretofore reliable properties, especially around campuses like California State University, Sacramento and California State University, Fullerton. Among NB Private Capital's list of California properties is Campus Walk, a student housing community adjacent to California State University, Chico. Right next to campus, the property is normally close to fully pre-leased by now but is currently almost 20% behind, which Paul Perkins, chief investment officer of NB Private Capital, said is strongly indicative of a marketwide slowdown given Campus Walk's proximity to campus and overall quality."
"'To say that we're 18%, 19% off of last year's number is saying a lot, because that building usually goes first,' Perkins said. NB Private Capital also owns The Element, near CSU's Sacramento campus, which is also almost 20% behind last year's pre-leasing pace and also indicative of a marketwide slowdown, Perkins said."
"In student housing, unlike with other property types, a lot will be sorted out soon enough, said Capital Markets Vice Chairman Ryan Lang. 'By a defined time frame, call it end of August this year, we’re going to know the state of the industry, whether it be good, bad or somewhere in between,' he said."
The New York Real Estate Journal. "When looking across the country, New York was hit hardest by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to all of the above factors mentioned making it difficult to sustain profitability, potential investors in New York commercial real estate have changed the way they underwrite properties. Given all of the new risk factors, some underwriting changes include investors upping vacancy percentages to 9%+, increasing capitalization rate percentages, decreasing retail/residential rents and increasing future property tax increases into their models."
"Investors consider the current market a very strong buyers’ market. Many owners are deciding to either hold onto their buildings or sell their buildings at discounts and move their money to a more investor friendly state with stabilized returns. We are starting to see owners accepting lower pricing so they can move their capital out of New York."
From Bisnow on New York. "Lawsuits between retailers and their landlords have become fairly commonplace in New York City over the last couple of months, but when Valentino sued its Fifth Avenue landlord last month, it wasn't over rent payments or a force majeure clause: The Italian luxury retailer claimed it should be allowed to break its lease because its address was no longer prestigious enough. It could also be a harbinger of a completely new era for the 10-block strip of Upper Fifth Avenue that once was the world's most expensive retail corridor."
"The average asking retail rent on Fifth Avenue between 49th and 59th streets was at $3K per SF at the end of June, according to CBRE. That lofty price represents a nearly 5% decrease from a year earlier, per CBRE, and it was down nearly 25% from 2018, when asking rents along the strip were north of $3,900, according to the Real Estate Board of New York."
"'Rents are going to be under $1K a foot for the first time in 20 years. It was the late '90s when they were last under $1K a foot,' said CBRE Vice Chairman Richard Hodos. 'We saw this exponential run-up, it was irrational exuberance. There were tenants that were outbidding each other, it was ridiculous,' he said. 'The landlords benefited from it, but we are in a different world today — though landlords may not admit it to the press.'"
From Bizwest in Colorado. "A Chicago-based development company faces a foreclosure action and millions of dollars in mechanics liens over a stalled apartment project in Old Town Fort Collins."
From Hawaii Business Magazine. "HBM wanted the inside story on changes in the local real estate industry, and especially how that affects buyers and sellers of local homes. So we invited six experts to a video discussion. Don Butler, President, Hawaii Mortgage Experts: Self-employed people definitely go through a bit of a ringer. If they’re not an essential business, we can’t use their income or some lenders will allow us to use a portion of their income depending on the likelihood of their businesses continuing as usual. Previously, if we had two years’ tax returns we probably wouldn’t need a profit and loss statement. Now they’re asking for profit and loss and corresponding bank statements, which is a big change."
"Every lender is looking at unemployment risk a little differently, depending on their exposure in different markets. From our side, as a broker, we have multiple lenders to go to, so we’re having to figure out which lender is the easiest for which type of borrower, and then of those lenders who offers the best rate. It’s been a challenge for us. We lost a few here and there. People were laid off and not getting monthly income, so we weren’t able to use the unemployment benefits to qualify."
"For homeowners who are struggling financially, the forbearance piece that the government enacted has been a huge help. The government basically said that for all Fannie-Freddie government loans, if anyone calls and says, 'Hey, I’m in trouble due to COVID,' the lender is required to grant forbearance for three months. After those three months are up, then you owe those three payments plus your next payment, all at one crack, which is scary. They are allowed to extend it for up to a year so they could call back in two months and say, 'I need another three months.'"
"But the problem is the payment keeps getting built up and a lot of the Mainland servicers are saying, 'No, you got to pay the full crack at one time.' I think more lenders are tacking it on to the end of the loan because even though the borrower doesn’t pay their mortgage as part of this forbearance, the lender is actually obligated to pay the note holder as if they’ve received the payment."
"Some lenders are worried that they won’t be able to continue lending because they have all these payments they have to make for the people in forbearance. We had some big name lenders that were contemplating bankruptcy."