While Predicting A Slump Is A Guessing Game, There Are Some Telltale Signs
A report from National Mortgage News. "While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to create financial uncertainty for all Americans, it's not too early to ask how mortgage lenders can help put the nation's economy back on track. One way is to address one of the traditionally largest hurdles to homeownership — the down payment. Down payments are a major barrier to home ownership, which is why our federal housing agencies and policymakers should be looking toward DPA programs like the Chenoa Fund as a model. Not only would expanding the DPA option help keep the fire under the housing market burning, but it can create a new generation of homebuyers who are able to pass on the same opportunity to their children for years to come."
From WANE in Indiana. "So many buyers, not enough sellers. That’s the trend of the housing market in Fort Wayne. 'People are going way over the asking price, I’ve seen people offer to cover any difference in the appraised price and the purchase price,' said Sam Hartman, a broker at Coldwell Banker Real Estate Group. 'Some people are even waving the inspection. Right now, interest rates are fluctuating between 3% and 4%, I have even had some lenders tell me they locked buyers in the 2% which is basically free money.'"
From Housing Wire. "In April 2020, 6.1% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more, marking the nation’s highest overall delinquency rate since January 2016, according to CoreLogic. The rate for early stage delinquencies (30-59 days past due) reached its highest level in 21 years at 4.2%, according to the report."
From CNBC Make It. "Nearly four months after banks and federal agencies started offering a number of assistance programs aimed at giving Americans a break on their mortgages, about 4.1 million homeowners remain in forbearance plans. At the end of the day, experts say getting in and out of forbearance will be a challenge for homeowners. 'I've just seen many too many people spend enormous amounts of time and energy and get themselves into a worse position,' says Lisa Sitkin, senior staff attorney with NHLP."
From Bob Vila. "While predicting a future housing slump is a bit of a guessing game, there are some telltale signs, including a large number of homes on the market, sellers dropping their asking prices, and vacant homes in the neighborhood, all of which are early indications that home prices may be taking a downturn. At the top of GOBankingRate’s list of communities that have experienced pronounced drops in home prices is Peoria, Illinois, where as many as 21 percent of homeowners are underwater, or upside-down, in their mortgages, meaning they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are now worth. In addition, the median price of a listed home today is $124,450, which is down 15.9 percent from two years ago."
"With 106,300 residents, Lakewood is the most populous township in Ocean County, New Jersey, but it has seen more than its fair share of plummeting home prices. In the past two years, the median listed home price has dropped 12.3 percent to $252,000. Additionally, approximately 9.4 percent of homeowners are upside-down in their mortgages."
"Home prices in Columbus, Georgia, have dropped an alarming 10.2 percent in the past couple of years, down to a median list price of $115,450, which explains why as many as 22.2 percent of homeowner mortgages are underwater. Miami Beach is treasured for its vast beaches, but even those aren’t enough to keep home values afloat. While the median price of a home in Miami Beach is much higher than it is in many other communities around the country, at $499,000 it’s fully 5 percent less than it was a couple of years ago. Approximately 14.5 percent of Miami Beach homeowners are underwater in their mortgages."
"These days a home in Naples, Florida, will set you back about $407,990, which is a decrease of 8.8 percent over the past two years. Perhaps some of the blame for the sagging prices can be pinned on the long amount of time houses spend on the market—140 days, on average, which is twice the national average. As many as 6 percent of homeowners are upside-down in their mortgages."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Bargain hunting? Here’s a look at price-reduced homes for around $900,000 in Mid-City, Cypress Park and La Crescenta-Montrose in L.A. County. A white picket fence and landscaped yard draw the eye outside this three-bedroom, two-bathroom home near the 110 Freeway. In the 90016 ZIP Code, based on 17 sales, the median price for single-family homes in May was $720,000, down 8.3% year over year, according to CoreLogic."
"Mid-city: This corner-lot property with a grassy backyard is down $100,000 from its original asking price. Address: 3647 Virginia Road, Los Angeles, CA 90016. Listed for: $850,000 for three bedrooms, two bathrooms in 1,526 square feet (7,112-square-foot lot)."
From Socket Site in California. "With the weighted average asking price of renting an apartment in San Francisco already down over 10 percent on a year-over-year basis and continuing to drop, the average price for renting 'a room' in San Francisco has just slipped to under $1,600 month."
"For the purposes of our analysis, we consider a studio to be a single room, a one-bedroom to have two, a two-bedroom to have three, and so on and so forth, as have plenty of roommates over the past couple of years. And as such, the average asking price per room is down 16 percent from a peak of nearly $1,900 a month in the fourth quarter of 2015. But as we’re working with asking rents, the current $1,600 a month figure doesn’t account for any additional concessions beyond a reduced rack rate (such as a couple months of free rent and/or a $2,000 gift card)."
From WCVB in Massachusetts. "A new report shows Boston rents have recently dropped by nearly 6% during the pandemic. The numbers show the asking price for rents dropped in Boston last month. But the rent on signed leases dropped even more, showing landlords are suddenly willing to negotiate. As recently as May, a four-bedroom apartment in Brighton was going for $3,400 a month. Now, the landlord has dropped the rent by nearly a quarter to $2,800 a month."
"'We're seeing not just rents drop, but incentives being placed on different apartments: no fee, free month, free TV. People are being aggressive to get students or young professionals in their apartments,' said Adam Mason of Preview Properties. Rents might drop even more when added unemployment payments run out at the end of the month and when a statewide moratorium on evictions runs out a couple weeks after that."
From Mansion Global on New York. "All of New York City’s Central Park—plus the city skyline and Hudson River—is in full view from the floor-to-ceiling windows of a One57 condominium that hit the market Wednesday for $45 million. The unit was last purchased by a trust in 2015 for $47.4 million, according to public records."
From Westfair Online. "Hudson Valley kitchen contractor Abraham Gandl has filed for bankruptcy, citing debts from a failed business. Gandl declared $431,000 in personal assets and nearly $4.2 million in liabilities in a Chapter 7 liquidation petitioned filed July 6 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Poughkeepsie. Most of the liabilities are business debts by co-debtor HNL Kitchens & Bath Inc. of Middletown."
"Gandl founded HNL in 2015, as High N Low Kitchens & Bath Inc. The company concentrated on large projects, such as high-rise apartment buildings and hotels. It claims to have built or renovated more than 10,000 kitchens, according to its website. Last August, the bankruptcy petition states, the business ceased operating."
"Gandl’s assets consist mostly of his house in Monroe, valued at $431,000. But the house secured more than $1 million for business loans, court judgments and IRS and state tax warrants. He owes $688,860 to PennyMac Loan Services, for instance, on a loan he defaulted on four months after it was taken out, according to a PennyMac foreclosure action filed in Orange County Supreme Court."
"Around the same time, he personally guaranteed a $280,000 revenue purchase agreement with Syndimate 2017 LP. HNL was required to pay the merchant cash advance lender 15% of its deposits per day, estimated at $1,750. HNL defaulted and Syndimate won a court judgement. Gandl declared more than $3.1 million in unsecured claims, including nearly $1.1 million to FinWise Bank of Sandy, Utah; $654,885 to Abraham Landau, who guaranteed the FinWise loan; and $339,580 to HNL’s CFO, Richard Stone. All but 20 of the 59 unsecured debts were listed as disputed."
"He has worked in a sales position for the past nine months, making about $397 a month. He declared income of $6,000 a month from an unspecified source and $700 a month in federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. He listed personal income of $36,000 through July 6, $50,000 last year and $28,800 in 2018. is total monthly income of $7,097 is offset by $10,476 in expenses, according to the petition, including $5,506 in mortgage payments."