There’s A Break-Even Point, And Then There’s A Losing-Money Point
A report from Mortgage News Daily. "CoreLogic said the number of loans in each stage of delinquency, with the exception of those in foreclosure, grew in May, the second straight month that early-stage (loans 30 to 59 days past due) and adverse (loans 60 to 89 days past due) delinquencies were up on an annual basis. The company notes year-over-year increases in overall delinquencies in all 50 states with the geography of the increases highly correlated with the pandemic's impact."
"The national foreclosure rate, which includes all post due loans including those in foreclosure, more than doubled compared to May 2019, rising from 3.6 percent to 7.3 percent of all mortgages. Early stage delinquencies increased from 1.7 percent a year earlier to 3.0 percent and adverse delinquencies jumped from 0.6 percent to 2.8 percent."
"The transition rate, which measures the share of mortgages that moved from current in April to past due in May was 2.2 percent compared to 0.8 percent the prior year. By comparison, in January 2007 - just before the start of the financial crisis - the current- to 30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent and peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent. The shift in loan performance in recent months is virtually unprecedented."
From DS News. "Based on a survey of more than 4,000 Americans, this month marks the fourth month in a row that the nation’s tenants and homeowners struggled to meet their monthly rent and mortgage deadlines. ApartmentList reports, 'For the fourth straight month, roughly one-in-three Americans failed to make a full, on-time housing payment. Late and unpaid housing bills are accumulating, putting financial strain on many families and deepening concerns of near-term evictions and foreclosures.'"
The Denver Post in Colorado. "About 5% of mortgage borrowers were more than 30 days late in May, compared to only 1.5% in May 2019. And with Colorado’s unemployment rate at an elevated 10.5% in June and enhanced federal unemployment benefits of $600 a week ending in July, more homeowners are likely to become seriously delinquent."
The Herald Tribune in Florida. "As the coronavirus pandemic continues to undermine the Sarasota-Manatee economy, more homeowners are failing to pay their mortgages on time. The share of homeowners in the two-county region who are at least 30 days late on their mortgage payments ballooned to 6.5% in May, from 5.2% in April and more than double the 2.5% reported one year earlier, CoreLogic reported. The 30-day delinquency rate in Sarasota-Manatee has hit the highest point since the months after Hurricane Irma blasted the region in September 2017, putting thousands of homeowners temporarily out of work."
"Without further government programs and support, CoreLogic forecasts the U.S. serious delinquency rate will quadruple by late 2021, pushing 3 million homeowners into serious delinquency."
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "The share of Dallas-Fort Worth homes seriously underwater has increased slightly since the start of the year. At midyear, more than 30,000 D-FW home loans were seriously upside down — where the debt on the property is way more than the value, according to Attom Data Solutions. Only 2.4% of the loans are out of whack, but the increase is the second quarterly rise in such underwater mortgages this year."
"Nationwide one in 16 mortgaged homes in the second quarter of 2020 were considered seriously underwater, where the debt on the property was at least a quarter more than the estimated value. In the D-FW area, the largest numbers of properties that are significantly upside down in debt are in Frisco, Allen, Mansfield and Burleson, according to Attom Data. In Dallas, the most significantly underwater homes are in the 75230 ZIP code of North Dallas. The Park Cities and parts of Old East Dallas, including the Lakewood area, also have hundreds of homes that are burdened with debt."
From Bakersfield.com in California. "A new report advocating rent cancellation and other government-led housing measures in the Central Valley warns that economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic could result in evictions for 20,000 households across Kern County. Bakersfield real estate agent Jeanne Radsick, president of the California Association of Realtors, said deferring rent is impractical because tenants won't be in a better position later to make up overdue rent."
"Building more single- and multifamily housing would help, she said, but a lasting moratorium on evictions could backfire. 'Why would anyone want to build rental housing and not be able to charge fair market rents?' she asked."
From Fox 10 Phoenix in Arizona. "Some help for struggling landlords in Arizona is on the way in the form of a fund set up by the state as renters continue having trouble making monthly rent payments. The fund is for landlords who are struggling to pay mortgages because they haven’t been receiving full rent if any from tenants. Chris Hughes runs AZ Invest, a rent-to-own program for more than 200 families. He says rent payments aren't flowing like they once were and he’s happy the state is throwing rental property owners a lifeline."
"'Very relieved, yes. That's great news because rents are down 10 to 15%,' Hughes explained. Courtney Gilstrap Levinus with the Arizona Multihousing Association, says the $5 million fund helps, but landlords are losing tens of millions of dollars. 'I know several of our members have applied for the maximum amount of $50 thousand and that's still a drop in the bucket,' she said."
"People aren’t always fond of a landlord’s plight, but if they can't make mortgage payments because they aren’t receiving rent, the bank takes the property back and everybody loses."
From KTRV in Virginia. "Governor Ralph Northam announced Friday that the Supreme Court of Virginia has granted his request for a statewide eviction moratorium through September 7. The Virginia Apartment Management Association expressed disappointment with the ruling, saying that it kicks the can down the road. 'I have heard from some independent owners that may have 1 or 2 rental properties and have people that haven’t paid for multiple months and don’t know what they’re going to do,' stated VAMA CEO Patrick McCloud."
From KATU in Oregon. "While thousands of Oregon households have been unable to pay their monthly rent -- and bills pile up -- advocates say more rent assistance will be needed. Moe Farhoud owns 61 apartment buildings, largely in East Portland. Many of his tenants, he said, live paycheck to paycheck. Of his roughly 1,500 units, he said 331 haven't paid rent since March, more than 20%. Some people have a rent bill approaching $10,000, he said. In total, he says he is owed close to $1 million in outstanding rents."
"'It's been almost six months since March, and we can't continue forever. Sooner or later we're going to collapse,' said Farhoud."
From Bloomberg. "While landlords at the priciest, amenity-rich apartments have collected most of their rent payments during the pandemic, owners of older, less fancy units -- the backbone of the nation’s affordable housing supply -- haven’t fared as well. Tenants at so-called Class C buildings paid 54% of total rents due in June by the middle of the month, according to a study by LeaseLock. In July, even with emergency unemployment relief still flowing, the figure slipped to 37%."
"Just outside Denver, Debi Stobie and her husband own a 24-unit building that’s their only source of income. She worries that if enough tenants skip payments, it may become impossible to cover fixed costs, like the mortgage and property taxes. 'There’s a break-even point, and then there’s a losing-money point,' she said."
"The 7.5 million units categorized as Class C account for about 35% of the U.S. rental supply, the National Apartment Association estimates. 'If you’re going to see foreclosures and distressed sales,' said Robert Pinnegar, chief executive officer of the National Apartment Association, 'this is were it will be.'"
The Daily Press on New York. "Jennifer Lawrence has finally sold her palatial penthouse in Manhattan for $9.9 million. And she gave up on breaking even on the sale of her Upper East Side abode, putting it on the market for less than the $15.6 million she paid for it back in 2016. If the final sale price is correct, J-Law is out millions, especially when you factor in transaction fees and decorating costs."
"'It’s not near anything,' says New York City luxury real estate agent Dolly Lenz. Lenz added that the movie star 'paid a little too much when she bought it.' 'It didn’t depreciate. She paid too much.'"
From CNBC. "Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell back in July. The percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to buy a home decreased from 61% to 53%. Another sign of the times: Google searches for 'How to buy foreclosure' has been a breakout search in the past two months."