More Units Are Coming Onto The Market, And We’ll Have An Excess Of Inventory Well Into Next Year
A report from CNBC on California. "Greg Tribulato is having trouble getting buyers interested in two extensively renovated condominiums he’s trying to sell in San Francisco’s Mission district. They’ve been on the market for three months. The one with two bedrooms is going for $1.5 million, and the four-bedroom unit costs $2.3 million. He said he and his father, Gary, are talking with the seller about renting out the homes or lowering their prices."
"They staged the homes, they created websites with custom domain names, videos and 3D digital tours, and they sent out flyers and emails to get people’s attention. 'We did everything under the planet that’s humanly possible,' he said."
From USA Today. "Rents are falling across most major cities, like New York and San Francisco, after the coronavirus pandemic battered the U.S. economy in the spring, forcing landlords to offer incentives to attract new tenants following an exodus from urban areas. Compared with last year, rent in New York as of August is down 4.6% to a median of $2,716. In San Francisco, it has dropped 4% to $3,167, and in San Jose, California, it has declined by 3.8% to $3,129. In Boston, the fifth-most expensive metro area within the top 50, rents are down 2.8% to $2,490 since last year. Rents in Washington, D.C., Chicago, Austin, Houston, and Denver have also dropped since last year."
"As landlords vie for new tenants, concessions on listings are now nearly twice as common as they were in February, according to Zillow. Concessions are often viewed by housing experts as a leading indicator of a coming price drop since landlords will often offer them first before reducing rent, said Joshua Clark, economist at Zillow. If owners feel they are no longer moving the needle, they’ll reduce prices, he added."
"'Big cities are losing demand because people are having a hard time finding jobs during the pandemic,' says Clark. 'Many recent graduates aren’t moving to big cities to start their dream jobs since hiring has frozen at many companies, and job losses have forced others to move back in with their families.' Further drops in rental prices are likely this year, he said."
"Bill Kowalczuk, a broker at Warburg Realty in New York City, said the drop in rental prices in Manhattan is the worst he’s seen in his more than two decades of work in the real estate industry. 'No matter where I look, an amazing deal can be found. People are throwing ridiculous offers at me to see what landlords will do,' says Kowalczuk, who added that he’s seen some landlords offer a few months of free rent to entice potential tenants."
"Some are even willing to install new appliances like refrigerators, dishwashers and laundry units; and to build out closets to tenants' specifications or add a fresh coat of paint. 'Until companies start forcing employees to work in the office and people come back to Manhattan as their primary residence, we could see high inventory for a while,' said Kowalczuk, adding, 'If landlords want to stop the bleeding, they’ll have to hold their nose and jump in. At this point, something is better than nothing.'"
The New York Times. "So, how should renters seize this moment? 'If you’re looking to get a deal, my biggest advice is to learn your market,' said Eric Brown, an agent for Compass. Look at how long homes have been sitting empty. If many of them have gone unrented for weeks or months, then you’re in luck. 'When tons of buildings have apartments available, then it’s a pretty safe bet that landlords are desperate for tenants and willing to negotiate,' Mr. Brown said."
"'Most of the people who have left New York City this year tend to be younger renters — more transient people in their early 20s and 30s who have older family members they can go live with, or jobs where they can work remotely,' Mr. Brown said. 'These people are more likely to live in big, no-fee rental buildings that are owned by commercial landlords, and those buildings haven’t been doing well since the pandemic hit.'"
"'Landlords would almost always rather give you a few months free than reduce your actual rent,' Ms. said Elizabeth Donoghue, a tenants’ rights lawyer in Manhattan. Offering concessions — like a rent-free period — allows landlords to keep their so-called 'face rent' high and stable, which affects what they can charge in the future as well as how much their property is worth if they refinance it."
"The good news is that many landlords are handing out concessions like candy these days. 'In July, 30.4 percent of all rental listings had concessions, which is huge,' said Cheryl Young, an economist at Zillow. 'In Washington, D.C., it was 57.5 percent of listings.' And 90 percent of the concessions she has seen have involved free rent. 'So you may not see rent go down, but you will be able to get a few months off.'"
"'There’s twice the number of rentals on the market in Manhattan this September compared to last year,' said Nancy Wu, an economist at StreetEasy. 'We’re not going to see that number of people moving back to New York all at once. If anything, more leases are expiring every month, more units are coming onto the market, and we’ll have an excess of inventory well into next year.'"
"While you’re waiting, Ms. Young recommended going month-to-month on your current lease, if you can. 'That will allow you more time to look for something specific,' she said. Then you can pounce when the price is right."
From Bisnow. "Some major student housing markets are reporting higher than usual vacancy rates as fewer students see the need to live near campuses they will not be visiting that much. In Boston, about 13,000 of the market’s roughly 250,000 rental units were still available as of Sept. 1, according to data compiled by the Boston Globe, an unusually high number that reflects a lower influx of students than is usual at this time of year. Rents are also down."
"The delinquency rate for CMBS loans associated with student housing reached a record high of 13.66% in July, much higher than the 2.19% rate for all other multifamily, Trepp reports (delinquent in this case meaning more than 30 days past due). In August, student housing delinquencies slipped to a still-elevated level of 13.06%."
From Reuters. "The economic effects of the coronavirus are battering the U.S. commercial-backed securities market, raising the question of the value of hotels, malls, and other buildings that act as collateral for mortgages, according to a report in the Financial Times on Sunday. Wells Fargo estimates that U.S. properties that have gotten into trouble are being written down by 27% on average, according to the report. Declining appraisal values could hammer portfolio managers that have moved into the commercial mortgage-backed securities market in search for yield."
From WVIR on Virginia. "As part of a fall speaker series, experts explored the current impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the Charlottesville housing market. 'Everyone sees the low mortgage rates and that seems like good news for folks looking to buy a home, but what we’re finding is the criteria for qualifying for mortgages has tightened up during coronavirus where lenders are looking for higher credit scores,' Virginia Realtors Chief Economist Laura Sturtevant said."
The Arizona Daily Star. "Emilio Bustamante was online teaching fifth graders when the constable knocked. The 47-year-old math and science teacher knew an eviction had been ordered, but on that Monday morning nearly a month ago, he thought he had more time. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey‘s executive order helped Pima County Constable Marge Cummings delay an eviction during the weeks it took Bustamante’s court case to reach its end, but the outcome was still the same: The Bustamante family became homeless during the pandemic because of lost income."
"'I was naive I guess,' Bustamante said. 'I felt safe, I felt like the order was protecting me and the constable was protecting me, which she was up to that point.'"
"But nothing worked in Bustamante’s favor: not the state’s moratorium, not the judge on his case, not the timing of a new federal moratorium and not the system for getting money to cash-strapped landlords. Bustamante says he applied for rental assistance in June and heard they were eligible in July. He was offered money three days after being evicted."
"Of the Arizonans who are very likely to be evicted in the next two months, 91% said they were using credit cards or loans to meet their financial needs, 88% were using savings or selling assets, and 100% said they were borrowing money from relatives or friends, reports research professor Keith Gunnar Bentele."
"Courtney Gilstrap LeVinus, president of the Arizona Multihousing Association, said many'mom-and-pop' rental owners rely on rent for retirement income, and they haven’t been paid for more than half a year. 'They’re frustrated,' LeVinus said, 'because it feels like they’ve been abandoned.'"
"The eviction of Bustamante was granted 'in the interest of justice.' Court documents provide no further explanation except that his request for reconsideration was denied because there were 'no legal grounds.' After the eviction judgment was handed down and his case continued, Bustamante wanted to file an appeal but couldn’t afford it after Justice Court Judge Susan Bacal, who presided over Bustamante’s case, set a bond of nearly $6,000, the amount he owed in back rent, restitution and late fees as part of the judgment."
"The purpose of the bond is to ensure a landlord or property owner still gets reimbursed, but Bustamante, who tried to get the judge to waive the amount, said his landlord had already told the court he didn’t want the back rent or fees, he simply wanted the house empty so he could sell it."
"When he was distraught in the weeks after his eviction, Bustamante would sometimes text Bonnie Bazata, program manager with the county’s Ending Poverty Now, whose agency had helped him. On one particularly bad night, Bustamante sent Bazata a message saying he felt like he’d failed his family. Bazata quickly set him straight. 'She said to me, ‘No, Emilio, you did not fail your family. The system failed you.’"