Preparing For The Borrowing Bubble To Burst
A report from Kelowna Now in Canada. "Canada's most expensive rental markets in Toronto and Vancouver continue to report a downward trajectory in prices. Toronto's one and two-bedroom prices are down 10% and 12%, respectively, since this time last year. Meanwhile, Vancouver’s one-bedroom rent has fallen 9.1% and two-bedroom rent has even dropped into the double digits with a 14% year-over-year dip. 'The 2 most expensive markets continued to hit record dips in prices. While Toronto one and two-bedroom rents were down 10% and 12%, respectively, since this time last year, Vancouver one and two-bedroom rents have fallen 9.1% and 14.1%, respectively,' reads PadMapper's report."
From Blog TO in Canada. "How low can rent go in Canada's largest and most expensive city? We have yet to find out, according to Ben Myers of Bullpen Research and Matt Danison of TorontoRentals. 'The average asking rent for condo apartments in Toronto in August reached its lowest level since January 2019 at $2,273 per month, well below the average ($2,538) and recent market peak in August 2019 ($2,707),' reads the report. In one downtown Toronto neighbourhood, condo rents are down a whopping 16 per cent, year over year."
"This equates to about $440 per month in savings for an average tenant of The Waterfront Communities, an area that encompasses CityPlace, Fort York, the Entertainment District and everything else that falls under an M5V postal code. Not coincidentally, this area was known for its high density of ghost hotels (read: Airbnb units) prior to the pandemic."
From The Khaleej Times on UAE. "In the face of challenges the pandemic has brought, a certain market trend has emerged as a silver lining: Housing rents are falling in the UAE. And realty experts believe this will continue towards the end of the year and run into 2021. In Dubai, according to the data available, the average apartment rents fell by about four per cent quarter-on-quarter and over nine per cent year-on-year, across all areas."
"Big movement is seen in Corniche and Marina Square, where rents for high-end apartments have plunged by 15 and 10 per cent compared with the same period in 2019. In Abu Dhabi, on an average, there is a one to two per cent difference between rents in the first two quarters of the year, but a comparison with the same period last year reveals 'startling' figures, experts said."
"With the dip in prices becoming more noticeable, people have started moving. Some cut down on expenses and relocate to cheaper areas, but then there are also those who are making the most of the drop by upgrading to bigger homes. Dinesh Krishnan, who lives in Abu Dhabi with his wife and three kids, was among those who recently bid apartment living adieu."
"'I was paying Dh66,000 for a two-bedroom apartment, but I now moved to a villa in Khalidiya area, where I have taken a portion of a villa for Dh60,000,' Krishnan said. 'I have spacious rooms, more storage areas, and two balconies in each bedroom, and a mango tree with chirping birds evokes nostalgia every morning.'"
From Standard Media on Kenya. "All is not well for the property sector in Nakuru County. The high number of vacant houses has forced landlords to accept new tenants without the earlier compulsory payment of rent deposits, which act as a goodwill for new clients. 'The situation is tough for us and the homeowners as we depend on each other in the property industry,' said Elly Ogutu, the managing director of De-Negotiators Enterprises, a commercial agency operating in the county."
"As a result, he told Home & Away the property owners have reduced their rent by between 25 and 30 per cent to survive. This applies to the upmarket Kiamunyi and a number of middle class estates including Racecourse, Langa Langa, Freehold, Shabana, Koinange and Pangani. Ogutu said the pandemic had caused a significant drop in their commissions from landlords."
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. "Experts suggest housing price bubbles that have popped up in Sydney regions in the past 20 years may be a thing of the past as immigration slows and COVID-19 lifestyle changes prompt people to move away from the city. Chief economist at AMP Capital, Shane Oliver, said the inner city was out of fashion and the new appetite for living further from work would revolutionise the market and stamp out price bubbles, after new research showed they occurred in some sub-markets of Sydney."
"'That could be something that breaks down the bubble mentality,' Mr Oliver said. 'If you can live in the Blue Mountains and only have to come into the city one or two days a week or not at all, then that's going to revolutionise the Australian property market and make it harder for bubbles that have been concentrated on city-centric areas because people have more choice about where they live.'"
The Market Herald in Australia. "Bank of Queensland has upped its loan impairment charge amid concerns Australia is heading for a credit implosion. The lender, headquartered in Queensland, tabled a $175 million expense to cover souring loans in its FY20 financials. As part of that figure, BOQ has set aside $133 million to cover COVID-19-related expenses. It's a huge jump on the bank's original coronavirus provisions, which totalled just $10 million back in April."
"The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority reported 10 per cent of all housing and small business loans — valued at a whopping $266 billion —had been deferred in late May. With softening restrictions to credit access and a rise in deferrals, it seems Bank of Queensland is preparing for the borrowing bubble to burst."
The South China Morning Post. "New Zealander Darryl Parrant was pleased when he renewed the lease on his 800 sq ft flat in Hong Kong’s affluent Mid-Levels area. He received a 20 per cent discount and will pay HK$40,000 (US$5,128) a month for the next two years, which means saving HK$120,000 a year. 'It is a pretty good deal,' said Parrant. 'When I came to Hong Kong two years ago, the rental market was at the peak.'"
"He said his expatriate friends had also seen their rents fall by thousands of dollars when extending their contracts recently. Aside from paying less, many can now afford to move into popular areas such as Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui, which used to be beyond their reach. Landlords there have begun offering steeper discounts to longer-term tenants."
"Briton Roddy Allan, who has lived in Hong Kong for 13 years, was pleased to pay 15 per cent more to clinch a Mid-Levels flat 40 per cent bigger than his previous place. He and his partner moved into the 1,200 sq ft flat in August, and although he declined to say how much he was paying, he said it was 20 per cent lower than the asking price.'Landlords and agents I spoke to offered more discounts,' he said, adding that this was something not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis."
From The Epoch Times. "A new study on China’s real estate market reported by state media paints a bleak picture: 76 of the biggest real estate developers need to repay 2,500 trillion yuan ($367 trillion) in the next 12 months, including 177 trillion yuan ($25.69 trillion) in interest. Such enormous debt has prompted real estate firms to refinance. Property developers also gave big discounts to new buyers, and sought to restructure to pare their debts."
"The Nandu study found that Evergrande needed to pay 395.7 trillion yuan ($58.1 trillion) in debt with interest in the next 12 months. China’s second-largest property developer by sales volume, Country Garden, has to pay 105.8 trillion yuan ($15.53 trillion), third-largest Vanke has to pay 96.8 trillion yuan ($14.21 trillion), and fourth-largest Sunac has to pay 140.6 trillion yuan ($20.64 trillion)."
"In 2019, Evergrande slashed the price of condos to promote sales but angered buyers who had paid full price for the properties. Evergrande reportedly hired thugs to beat up people who asked for refunds. This year, Evergrande’s situation is worse due to China’s declining economy, exacerbated by the CCP virus pandemic and widespread flooding. In an attempt to attract more business, on Sept. 7, Evergrande announced a 30 percent discount on all their real estate products until Oct. 8."