Some Of That Exuberance Is Starting To Look Irrational
A report from Forbes. "A startling number of homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages aren’t sure if they’ll face eviction soon. Some 16% of Americans who responded to the latest Census Bureau Household Pulse Survey—that’s a whopping 1.34 million people out of 8.42 million respondents—said 'it’s somewhat likely' they will have to leave their current house within two months due to foreclosure. The survey was taken Aug. 19 through 31."
From Bloomberg. "After years of strong growth, rents in U.S. urban areas have decreased 2% since February, according to Zillow Group Inc. In New York, San Francisco, Seattle, and other high-cost cities, the decline has been almost twice that. (Other surveys show even steeper drops.) In few places has this shift been as dramatic as Capitol Hill, where developers have steadily converted the city’s former Auto Row along East Pike and Pine streets into gleaming new apartment blocks."
"Some of that exuberance is starting to look irrational. The Solis, a new 45-unit apartment building in Seattle, has everything a young urban professional would have wanted six months ago. 'It’s been really slow,' says Brian Heather, chief executive officer of SolTerra Capital Inc., the company that developed the property. A building he once thought would fully lease in three months this spring is only about 60% full."
From CBS Chicago in Illinois. "CBS2 Investigator Dorothy Tucker discovered that new rules designed to prevent homelessness are actually causing some landlords to lose their homes. Jillesa Willis showed off the blankets and clothes stored in her trunk in case the weather turns colder. They are in a makeshift closet in the car she and her daughter call home. But Willis does have a place of her own. In fact, she owns a two flat in Auburn Gresham."
"She saved every penny for four years and bought it last November. Her plan was to keep the tenant on the first floor, who was paying $800 a month in rent. Willis would move to the second floor. But, her plan didn’t work out. Second-floor tenant Andre Richards, who works as a maintenance man, didn’t leave. With Richards refusing to leave or pay rent, Willis struggled to make the $1,300 mortgage. And she couldn’t afford to rent another place."
"She’s an office worker, making $16 an hour. 'I can’t afford to pay the mortgage and pay on my other bills,' Willis said."
"Recently, more than 100 small landlords jumped on a Zoom call venting their frustration with the moratoriums and invited CBS 2’s Tucker to listen in. Among those on the call was Katrina Bilella. While she worked out of state, she rented her Logan Square condo to Filemon Avila and Gabriella Almaraz. When the pandemic hit, both her tenants lost their jobs and stopped paying rent, nearly $2,000 a month. 'By the end of the year, they will owe me about $20,000,' Bilella estimated."
"And then an ironic twist of fate, Bilella said she wrote to her tenants, 'I just received news that I was laid off due to COVID-19,' she said she wrote to her tenants. But they never replied. So instead of living in her own home, Bilella is now staying with family in New York. And her tenants? 'I’m just paying for them to live in my unit,' she said."
From CBS Bay Area in California. "A program to assist small landlords financially impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic was approved Tuesday by San Mateo County supervisors. Supervisors voted unanimously to approve the Small Residential Rental Property Owner Assistance program, after allocating $2 million of federal funds towards its establishment on Aug. 4. Federal funding falls under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act."
"President of the Board Warren Slocum said in August that the board is trying to create a 'win-win' outcome. 'We’re trying to create a situation that benefits small landlords as well as people and families so that they can stay in their homes and not end up homeless,' Slocum said."
The Commercial Observer on New York. "Mezzanine debt positions tied to four HFZ Capital Group condominium buildings in Manhattan are headed for a Uniform Commercial Code (UCC) foreclosure sale, according to a UCC foreclosure sale notice shared with to Commercial Observer and sources familiar with it. The junior mezzanine lender on the properties, CIM Group, triggered the sale, sources said. The four loans are cross-collateralized and have an aggregate balance of $89.5 million: 88 Lexington Avenue ($25.5 million), 90 Lexington Avenue ($15.6 million), 235 West 75th Street ( $38.5 million) and 301 West 53rd Street ($9.9 million)."
"A lawyer who does not represent any of the parties involved and spoke with Commercial Observer on the condition of anonymity today explained that junior mezzanine lenders run the risk of being wiped out by the senior mezzanine lender, and therefore move quickly to protect their interests and either take over the project themselves or sell their positions to somebody who would have interest in — and the ability to — take over a project."
"'The issue in the age of COVID is that people left the city for two weeks and, all of a sudden, it became five months,' the lawyer said. 'So people didn’t know if anybody was going to show up at a UCC auction or if any of the people who would ordinarily be willing to invest in a project would be willing to invest now. It puts pressure on the commercial reasonableness requirements to slow things down a little.'"
The Palm Beach Daily News in Florida. "A condo at The Bristol — the ultra-luxury tower completed last year on the West Palm Beach waterfront — has been sold by a Palm Beach owner who bought it new from the developer. Palm Beach real estate investor and insurance executive Peter J. Worth has resold his 18th-floor unit for $8.42 million, according to the deed recorded Monday. And Unit 1802 sold for $435,322 less than what Worth paid for the four-bedroom condo in November, courthouse records show."
From Arlington Now. "Question: I’ve seen a lot more condos come to market and also some staying on market longer than before, is that part of a larger trend in the condo market? Answer: In July, I predicted there would be a surge in housing inventory that was held off the market this spring because of COVID. That has proven to be moderately correct for single-family housing and very accurate for condos. The market has had no trouble absorbing the extra single-family housing, albeit with less competition than before, but the condo market has not absorbed the extra inventory and has undergone a significant shift in the last two months."
"In short, listing volume for Arlington condos reached historically high levels in July and August, absorption (demand) is down, and months of supply is the highest it’s been since the fall of 2017. It’s worth noting that while the overall Northern Virginia condo market is performing well, the Washington, D.C. condo market looks more like Arlington. In July and August, Months of Supply (2.73 and 2.80, respectively) reached the highest levels since October 2012 and were the first and third highest monthly listing volume over the last ten years. July (863 condo listings) is the first time in over a decade that more than 800 listings came to market."
From Seattle Met in Washington. "There’s one sector of our local real estate market where home browsers can still avoid crushing competition: downtown condos. Though the pandemic has cleared out many offices, developers have pressed on with projects rising from the city’s core, adding to its condo supply at a time when few are willing to make the move downtown. The resulting inventory numbers are jarring: While it would take about one month to unload every single-family house on the market in Seattle at August’s rate of sales, accomplishing the same for every downtown and Belltown condo would require a whopping nine-month slog, per Northwest Multiple Listing Service’s August breakdown. In March, that number was under three."
"'I’ve gotten more inquiries about, ‘Can you sell my downtown Seattle condo for x?’ than we’ve gotten in a long time,' says Lindsey Gudger, the owner of Georgetown-based Every Door Real Estate. 'And unfortunately, the answer for a lot of those people is, based on market data, ‘No, we cannot.’"