The Tables Turned
A report from 6 Sq Ft in New York. "While some of Donald Trump’s family businesses have managed to profit from his presidency, his condo buildings in New York City continue to see significant price drops. From 2016 to 2020, overall closing sales prices at nine Trump-branded condos dropped by 25 percent, according to CityRealty. Some of the biggest price cuts include a studio at The Dominick, the Spring Street building formerly named Trump Soho, which is listed for $399,000, a 51.6 percent drop from the closing price in 2012, at $824,200. At Trump Parc in Midtown West, a three-bedroom apartment is now asking $6,975,000, a nearly 41 percent cut from the closing price of $11,800,000 in 2014."
From Mansion Global on New York. "Manhattan’s rental market continued to soften amid the Covid-19 pandemic, with the vacancy rate exceeding 5% in August for the first time in 14 years. More than half (54.2%) of the new leases signed in August came with landlord concessions, the largest market share in nearly a decade, according to the report. Listing inventory soared 166% year-over-year to 15,025 in August, the highest level in more than14 years and third straight monthly record, according to the report."
"'The vacancy rate was unusually high, and the trajectory was steep,' said Jonathan Miller, chief executive of real estate appraisal firm Miller Samuel and author of the Douglas Elliman report. 'We saw weakness in the starter market, with studios and one-bedrooms registering 10.5% and 8.4% declines in median rent, respectively.' This was largely due to the fact that unemployment was skewered to lower wage-earners, he added."
From Curbed New York. "Fernando Urdapilleta always wanted to live on the Upper West Side of Manhattan but could never afford the rent — that is, until now. When his then landlord offered Urdapilleta a free month of rent if he renewed his existing lease in Lenox Hill, he sensed the market was finally shifting in his favor. Rather than take the deal, Urdapilleta looked for Upper West Side apartments and found a two-bedroom right off Central Park for almost $200 less than it rented for pre-pandemic. After negotiating, he got a month and a half of free rent."
"'I saw a ton of great options, better than what I had and for less money,' he said. The shake-up began in March when a number of Manhattanites did leave the city, leading to a rise in vacant apartments and once-unthinkable rent drops. Since the real-estate market opened back up in June, people chasing deals are moving within New York City — leaving new vacancies (and declining rents) behind them."
"'The tables turned,' Urdapilleta said. 'Before, I had a rough time trying to secure an apartment. Now, landlords and brokers were fighting over me and throwing in months for free. Some New Yorkers are just taking advantage of that right now.'"
From Housing Wire. "Mortgage credit in August was the tightest in more than six years as a weak economy prompted lenders to tighten standards, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report. The group’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index fell 4.7% to 120.9 last month, the lowest since March 2014, indicating stricter requirements to get loans. The index plunged from record highs seen in late 2019 after the COVID-19 pandemic caused the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression."
"The drop in the availability of credit was 'driven by a reduction in supply from both conventional and government segments of the market,' said Joel Kan, an MBA associate vice president. 'Credit continues to tighten because of uncertainty still looming around the health of the job market. A further reduction in loan programs with low credit scores, high LTVs, and reduced documentation requirements also continued to drive the overall decline in credit availability.'"
From CNBC. "As of this week, 3.7 million borrowers are still in government and private sector mortgage forbearance programs. That’s about 7% of all active mortgages, according to Black Knight. About three-quarters of those still in bailout plans, delaying their payments and sinking deeper into debt, are now in renewals. They have extended their plans by another three months. These borrowers are likely unemployed or receiving reduced income due to the pandemic."
"The serious mortgage delinquency rate in June was triple what it was in March and is expected to move much higher, but not all of those borrowers are destined to lose their homes in foreclosure. 'While some would go into foreclosure proceedings, many would sell rather than lose all the home equity that they had gained through appreciation over the last several years,' said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic."
From Nevada Public Radio. "Although the housing market is doing well overall, some landlords with just a few properties are struggling because of the eviction moratorium. Jillian Batchelor, a board member of the Nevada Association of Realtors, pointed out that some landlords have only one or two properties to rent out. Sometimes landlords are families who are moving out of state because of work or they're in the military but don't have the equity to sell just yet."
"Batchelor is also a homeowner and rental property owner. She believes the extension is really just putting off the problem. 'We need to find a solution to the problem and extending this is not the solution,'" she said, 'Because all it is going to do is push off the problem and you have a lot of landlords who maybe haven't been able to collect rent since February, March, April, May… they still have to pay these mortgages if they owe money on these properties.'"
"Batchelor also believes a large jump in foreclosures is not likely. She points out that because the housing market is so healthy right now, and houses are appreciating rapidly, people can stay in their homes because of forbearance gain equity, and then sell. 'Now, what might have been a foreclosure may not be a foreclosure,' she said."
From Seattle PI in Washington. "Fortunately, or unfortunately, depending on if you’re a buyer or a seller, Seattle’s condo inventory continued to rise with 892 units for sale in August. That reflected a hefty 36.4% additional condos for sale compared to a year ago and 20.4% more than the prior month. This number only reflected Seattle condos listed for sale in the NWMLS, which isn’t the true number the condo inventory. Seattle still has hundreds of under-construction or nearly completed condos that are available for pre-sale purchase but are not included in the NWMLS database."
"One neighborhood outlier swayed the citywide average…downtown. With a 6.9-month inventory supply rate, downtown Seattle is markedly in a buyer’s market. And, that’s just NWMLS listed inventory. The downtown market is worse off when contemplating the new condo buildings under construction. As the downtown market slows, it’s not unforeseeable that we’ll may have a year’s worth of inventory, or more, in the near future as those buildings complete. In fact, one of the new condo buildings recently reduced their prices, and there may be more on the horizon."
The Chicago Tribune in Illinois. "Six months after the COVID-19 pandemic first shook Chicago, the city’s once-mighty downtown — with its towering skyscrapers, glamorous shops and glittering public spaces — is a humbled giant, taking only tentative steps toward recovery. At the city’s tallest building, Willis Tower, 15,000 office workers poured through the lobby on a typical day before the pandemic. On Thursday, between 8 and 9 a.m., Tribune reporters counted 75 people passing through its main entrance."
"Depressed by two waves of looting that stunned Chicago, foot traffic on and around the Magnificent Mile shopping district was less than half what it usually is. Occupancy rates for downtown apartments are the lowest they’ve been in 18 years. In Chicago, as in other American cities hammered by the pandemic, the stakes are enormous. Largely due to the COVID-19 slowdown, which has cut deeply into tax revenues from hotels, restaurants, retailers and ride-sharing companies, Chicago is projecting the largest budget deficit in its history, $1.2 billion, for fiscal 2021."
"On a typical pre-pandemic September weekday last year, Metra’s 11 commuter railroad lines had a ridership of almost 275,000, according to the rail agency. On Sept. 3, that figure stood at about 25,000, 9% of normal — up just slightly from the 3% low point of April 10. Absent downtown’s magnetic pull, suburban train stations sit empty, as do their once-coveted parking spaces. At a Lake Forest station, 'people were fighting to get a spot at 9 in the morning. Now there’s three cars there,' said Michael H. Ebner, professor emeritus of history at Lake Forest College."
"At The Shops at North Bridge indoor mall along North Michigan, the owners of the Giuseppa Collection, which sells Italian-inspired women’s clothing, said sales were down about 75% compared with last summer in June and July. After the second round of looting, it got even quieter. 'Last year there were so many tourists, so many local people,' said owner Grace Krynski. 'It’s a completely empty street.'"
From The Real Deal on Florida. "The condo association for a Miami River project is suing a group of developers and subcontractors, alleging $10 million in design and construction defects. Terrazas Riverpark Village Condominium Association filed suit last month in Miami-Dade Circuit Court against more than 80 parties. The association alleges that unit owners only discovered the defects in the 328-unit project, at 1861 Northwest South River Drive, after buying their condos."
"The report notes the 'generally poor conditions' of the roofing system, water leaks in some of the units, cooling towers 'in a state of abandonment and [that] require significant repairs and maintenance' and a smell of gas and fuel in the boiler room that 'may present a life safety issue since such gas may be flammable.'"
"The Miami River towers aren’t the only project entangled in legal woes tied to alleged construction defects. Unit owners at the ultra-luxury condo development Glass in South Beach filed suit in June, alleging the development group failed to build the 10-unit, 18-story condo development in accordance with building codes, manufacturers recommendations and permitted plans. Meanwhile, the condo association for Aria on the Bay filed suit in August, alleging a litany of construction defects at the 53-story luxury tower near Edgewater."
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "It's finally a renters' market in San Francisco (maybe), and large apartment buildings are doing whatever they can to find new tenants without decreasing the value of the property. In this case, that means two-months free rent and a free Peloton bike including the membership fee. It might even be three-months free rent? The title of the listing says "three months free," while the listing itself says two months free. My guess is if you take the Peloton offer you only get two months free, as we've seen something similar in other listings."
"It goes for … drumroll … $1,995/month! Zumper reported the median rent of a studio in Nob Hill is $2,125."
From Mansion Global on California. "San Francisco’s high-end condo market was the only luxury segment to record year-over-year declines, falling 19%. The city has a wealth of active apartment listings, accounting for 73% of the overall properties on the market. Housing stock in San Francisco has 'risen dramatically over the last few months,' said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for the San Francisco Bay Area at Compass. The number of homes on the market in San Francisco jumped 75% year over year during the four weeks ending Aug. 23, according to a separate report last month from Redfin. The increase in inventory has pushed almost a quarter of sellers in the city to cut their asking prices to remain competitive."
From Bakersfield.com in California. "An uptick in home mortgage defaults and trustee sales in Kern County since April may suggest foreclosures stemming from the COVID-19 economic slowdown could slow an otherwise strong local single-family housing market. The rebound in local foreclosure-related activity has been modest and totals remain well below levels reported just a year earlier. It's likely the situation would be worse if not for a moratorium on certain foreclosures."
"'The (projected) increase in foreclosures will increase the (local home) supply and drive down prices,' Bakersfield appraiser and market observer Gary Crabtree said by email. But, he added, 'This (jump) should be 'mild' compared to 'The Bubble' that led to a jump in foreclosures in 2008 and 2009."
"Bakersfield real estate agent Jeanne Radsick noted that not all homeowners who exercised their right under the CARES Act to delay making mortgage payments necessarily needed the extra time. That means the situation, though challenging, may not be as bad as it looks, she said. Radsick, who serves as president of the California Association of Realtors, added that the association has projected that 60,000 California homeowners could be foreclosed on."
"That's a lot, she said by email, 'but many of those in forbearance (delaying paying their mortgage) won't be ultimately foreclosed on. Our current project is for less than 10% of sales next year to be foreclosures compared with 30-40% back in 2008,' she wrote."