When The Money Is Almost Free, Sometimes The Market Gets A Little Bit Ahead Of Itself
A report from AZ Big Media in Arizona. "William Gray, former president of the Arizona School of Real Estate and Business, said the homebuying market has 'been going gangbusters' since the beginning of the summer. 'One of the little problems we have in Gilbert is the median price of a home is running at about $400,000. So that may get a little expensive,' Gray said."
"Gilbert resident Nadia Saco bought the home of her dreams this August. Saco acknowledges that it is 'kind of a weird time to take on a bigger mortgage.' The software company her husband works for is doing well and she is reasonably confident in his job security, 'but you never know.' 'We felt pretty good moving forward, but it’s always kind of in the back of your mind. Like, is this a bad time to buy a home?' Saco said."
"The Sacos were presented with another complication earlier this month when the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a nationwide moratorium on evictions through the end of the year. The Sacos, who kept their old house and rented it to friends, could be in a financial bind if their renters couldn’t pay the rent. 'I know these tenants well and they seem to be in a good financial spot,' said Saco, who called the eviction moratorium a 'slight concern.' But 'I just don’t know what would happen if our tenants couldn’t pay, because we can’t afford to pay both' mortgages without the rental income."
"Gray sees little risk of foreclosures increasing in the current market. All a strapped homeowner has to do is 'put their home on the market, it’ll be sold in two days.' Owners of rental properties could face challenges because of the eviction moratorium, which runs through Dec. 31. 'If landlords put those houses on the market Jan. 1, they’d be purchased immediately,' Gray said. 'But if you put the property on the market right now with no stream of income (from renters), who would buy it?'"
From WINK News in Florida. "The housing market is on fire, a record jump in sales this summer. The Federal Reserve also announced interest rates will stay a record low near or at zero for the next few years. Those factors are driving up the value of homes. 'When rates are down that low, I mean, the money is almost free,' said Tom Smythe, a FGCU professor of finance. Smythe said there could be a downside. 'We’ve seen before sometimes the market gets a little bit ahead of itself,' Smythe said."
"That’s the like the way it did in 2008 when the housing market collapsed and the great recession took hold of the economy. 'I think we’d have to see say 6 months from now if the housing market is still on sort of a steady sharp incline relative to what it is today,' Smythe said."
The Wall Street Journal on New York. "In one of the largest New York City deals to close since the pandemic, a Soho penthouse has sold for $35.14 million, setting a record for the neighborhood. Spanning the top three floors of the Broome Street building where actor Heath Ledger was found dead in 2008, the roughly 8,000-square-foot apartment was most recently listed for $43.75 million with Oren and Tal Alexander of Douglas Elliman. The unit originally went on the market two years ago for $65 million with another firm."
"In the second quarter, the median sales price for luxury Manhattan properties was down 11.3% from the prior year, according to a Douglas Elliman market report."
The Wall Street Journal on California. "Movie mogul Jeffrey Katzenberg is in contract to buy the Beverly Hills property of Estée Lauder Executive Chairman William P. Lauder for close to $30 million, according to people familiar with the transaction. Trousdale prices are down from their frenzied peak of a few years back, when speculative builders loaded the neighborhood with modern, glass-walled homes and demanded roughly $2,500 a square foot, said Michael Nourmand, president of Nourmand & Associates in Beverly Hills and not involved in the deal. Today, $2,000 a square foot is more typical for top-of-the-line Trousdale homes."
From The Current in California. "The nation’s housing market so far seems 'kind of immune' to the economic downturn brought on by the coronavirus pandemic, but it may be a little early to declare victory. According to the panel, there are a couple factors that could cloud the happy state of home sales. Another is the looming potential for foreclosures, signs of which are appearing in the form of increasing mortgage delinquencies."
"'In over three decades, we have not seen this type of increase — 16%, up from 9.7% of all transactions from the beginning of the year, are delinquent,' said Karen Chackel, First American Title county manager in Santa Barbara County. The mortgage forbearances that are part of the CARES Act have so far held off mass foreclosures, as struggling borrowers buy time through the end of the year. The end of the program might see a rise in foreclosures, as mortgage payments come due again."
"But on the other hand, according to Chackel, unlike with the housing bubble and recession a decade ago, today’s borrowers have built more equity, giving them the option to sell the property if they can’t afford it. 'Equity makes it a little bit safer,' she said. 'People aren’t going to walk away from the equity.'"
From Your Central Valley in California. "'The way the insurance companies were moving out of the state, and pushing people to these more expensive policies, it seemed like a tidal wave coming,' said Peter Leinau, Oakhurst resident. 'We will see another housing collapse as we saw before in California because of people walking away. They can’t afford those payments.'"
"Residents in the mountains have seen insurance rates skyrocket over the past one to three years. They are voicing their concerns with CBS47 and are pointing to forest management as the underlying issue. Residents and insurance companies alike agree forest management is the cause of insurance rates raising 300 to 900% in recent years. It’s a high risk for insurance companies to insure in certain zip codes because they know if a fire took place, the company would suffer a huge loss."
"Meegan Kliever, frustrated with the position the state is in, says change is needed before bad change happens. 'If nothing is done then we will be forced to move out of California.'"
The Times Record News in Texas. "The real estate market in Texas cooled slightly in August as sales stabilized after a surge in pent-up demand earlier in the summer. An increasing gulf between the upper and lower price ranges led to an increase in the median sales price for existing homes. 'The initial economic shock from COVID-19 was concentrated in the service sector and other industries that rely on a younger workforce,' according to Center Research Economist Dr. Luis Torres. 'These households are more likely in the market for lower-priced homes, and we’ve seen that market suffer disproportionately. The relative strength in upper price ranges is inflating the median sale price.'"
From KTVB on Idaho. "The coronavirus pandemic hasn't cooled off the Idaho county's hot housing market, but instead, it has people buying new homes at higher prices. On August 13, KTVB spoke with BRR President Michelle Bailey about the then-new record of median home sales price reaching $390,000. 'The bottom line is, buyer demand continues to outpace the supply of homes for sale, driving up prices,' she said then. 'It's also the mix of sales. We have more new homes selling at higher price points and higher existing homes selling so that combination is driving prices up.'"
From NBC News. "John Wilkins, 39, lost his job as a facilities director at a fast-food restaurant in Santa Barbara, California, in March when the coronavirus outbreak began. With the $600 weekly unemployment benefit from Washington, he was making up his previous income and managed to save enough of a cushion to cover an extra month's rent."
"But then the benefit expired, and a $300 temporary replacement is soon to expire, as well. He has had no luck finding a job, and has little idea what comes next. 'After this month, I don't know what we're going to do,' Wilkins said. 'We canceled cable. We got rid of our crappy air conditioner. We've cut way back. Still not making it.'"
"For months, it was a lifeline: a check for $600 a week, allowing people put out of work by the coronavirus pandemic to pay rent, buy food and build some savings to ride out the storm. But with that benefit now gone and a patchwork of replacement aid nearing its end, tens of millions of Americans are dealing with uncertain futures, unsure of their income beyond even the next month or whether they can find jobs to replace it. Nor can they take the roofs over their head for granted: While emergency measures protect them from eviction for now, without additional aid they could lose their housing as soon as the order expires at the end of the year."
"Those moves only delay evictions, and they don't offer direct financial aid, leaving both tenants and landlords on the hook for now and without a picture of what happens if the moratorium ends and tenants accrue months of unpaid rent. An analysis by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimated that Americans owe over $25 billion in back rent, which could balloon to $70 billion by the end of the year."
"Diane Yentel, CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition, said, 'Landlords are going to evict if renters aren't paying the rent at some point.'"
"Joel Griffith, a research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said an eviction moratorium without some additional relief — from the federal, state or local governments — could have negative downstream effects throughout the economy, putting small landlords in difficult financial straits, as well as their tenants. 'We're not talking about enormous corporate conglomerates. Often the landlords are people who bought several rental properties and are relying on it as a source of income or even retirement income,' he said."
"Many of those strains could be resolved if those who are in need of additional aid could find jobs. But while millions of people have returned to work after the worst of the slowdown last spring, many industries are still lagging. 'I'm looking in the restaurant industry, but unfortunately right now it's hurting pretty bad,' said Loryn Cadwallader, who was furloughed from her management job at a chain restaurant in Sanford, Florida."
"She hopes to return soon as locations begin to reopen, but she has little backup if she can't. Her state approved only four total weeks of stopgap benefits, which Cadwallader said she's already received. Overall, jobs in hospitality and leisure, which includes bars, restaurants, hotels and theaters, are still 25 percent below their pre-pandemic levels. In many places, sports arenas still don't have audiences, live music venues are still shuttered, and indoor eating and drinking establishments are still under tight restrictions."
"As of July, there were an average of 2.5 unemployed persons for every job opening, according to federal data. 'We're in a situation where millions of people have been thrown out of work, and for those looking for a job, there are far fewer opportunities,' said Nick Bunker, director of economic research for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab."
"'I feel like the attitude toward unemployment insurance is like the attitude toward the virus itself at this point,' said Michelle Evermore, a senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project, a liberal group. 'There are so many people tired of things being bad that they're pretending they just aren't bad anymore.'"