The Old Model Is Dead, And Not Coming Back
A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. "Sales tax data shows San Francisco’s population likely declined during the coronavirus pandemic, the city’s chief economist Ted Egan told The Chronicle. 'We’re the worst in the state,' he said. 'That’s a sign to me that people aren’t here.' Regionally, 'it does look like it’s the tech people moving,' Egan said, with big rent drops in high-cost cities in Silicon Valley as well. 'That opens up a huge question, when are they going to come back? Are they going to come back?'"
Two reports from Bisnow on California. "The coronavirus pandemic and economic downturn brought San Francisco's multifamily investment market to a near standstill that it is now just starting to crawl out of. As the city's unemployment rate has quadrupled and companies have extended remote work policies into 2021 or beyond, apartment vacancies and dropping rents have cooled some multifamily investors' interest in S.F., at least for now. 'Buyers and lenders are not comfortable with vacant units anymore,' Colliers International Vice President Payam Nejad wrote."
"'From everything we’ve been hearing from property managers and in the data in terms of vacancy rates and rental rates, it’s just a market that’s struggling to generate enough demand,' said CoStar Senior Market Analyst Marco Cugia."
"A once-humming San Francisco office market stalled by the coronavirus pandemic regressed further in Q3, posting close to a million SF of available sublease space and a more than 4% drop in average asking rent. 'There's no bifurcating the illness with demand in San Francisco, which is true of every major metropolitan market, but especially in San Francisco,' said Glenn Gilmore, president of Brick & Timber Collective. 'Until we have some clarity on the health situation, we're going to be in a bit of a freefall from a demand perspective.'"
From Real Estate Weekly. "New York real estate powerhouse Brown Harris Stevens has launched a new consulting arm designed to help apartment developers and investors make judgement calls on their projects. 'Our research has always been a market innovator. We look at poignant and often overlooked data points – like pioneering the inclusion of contract-signed data in reports as well as shadow inventory,' said Stephen Kliegerman, president of Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing."
From WBUR in Massachusetts. "The state’s housing courts are planning furiously to add resources to handle an expected flood of eviction filings that could come soon after the commonwealth’s eviction moratorium ends on Oct. 17. Doug Quattrochi of the group MassLandlords says he can’t support a proposal that requires landlords to give up rent money they are counting on. 'What everybody seems to be jockeying around is, ‘Well, how much can we cram landlords down? You know, we'll take 70 cents on the dollar, or we’ll take 50 cents on the dollar,' he says. 'I was trying to explain to them it's not a question of profitability. There's just a ton of mom and pops that can't pay their base expenses.'"
The Washington DCist. "Last week, D.C. Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey DeWitt projected a $221 million revenue loss for new fiscal year that just began. In Virginia, Arlington County Board Chair Libby Garvey, a Democrat, said that congressional inaction would have a significant impact. 'If we’re not getting any federal funding … we’re going to have to start deciding where we’re going to cut back, and that means letting people go,' Garvey said. 'And then you have more people who are unemployed. How are they going to pay their rent? How are they going to put food on the table? The whole thing is just a set of dominoes.'"
The Review Journal in Nevada. "Las Vegan Josuah Smith was laid off from his job last month and owes his landlord, Siegel Suites, $2,500. He’s worried he’ll soon be evicted and, at worst, have his debt sent to collections. Bob Smith requested a forbearance on his mortgage this summer after his tenant in Silverado Ranch failed to pay five months’ worth of rent, totaling $6,500. He’d like to avoid the collections process but is concerned he’ll never see the funds."
"The tale of two Smiths highlights what many real estate experts describe as a worst-case-scenario in a rental market slowly showing signs of distress — collections. While things are currently manageable, Eric Cohen, Calida Group’s managing director said things could spiral downward for Las Vegas’ rental market. 'If the government doesn’t extend unemployment benefits then I’m assuming it could get worse,' he said."
From NBC News. "Roughly 10 to 14 million renter households, or 23-34 million people, were behind on their rent by Sept. 14, according to a September report released by the National Council of State Housing Agencies. That amounts to $12-$17 billion in unpaid rent. 'Many of these small landlords don’t have access to credit, so they can’t borrow the money they need to pay bills,' said Diane Yentel, CEO of the National Low Income Housing Coalition. 'The concern is that landlords might decide to sell property or walk away — and the last thing we want to do is end the crisis with renters saddled with more debt.'"
The Collegian in Pennsylvania. "In recent years, luxury high-rises have been popping up all over State College, with construction and cranes constantly obstructing the small town’s landscape. The luxury student housing boom started in State College around 2016, with apartment buildings like the Rise and the Metropolitan appearing downtown. Even so, these extravagant apartments are only a feasible option for a small percentage of students, as their rent costs thousands of dollars a month."
"With the combination of student debt and the limited housing available to Penn Staters, I believe the housing bubble in State College will eventually burst. Even though the towering high-rises growing all over town are eye-catching and exciting to look at, they foreshadow the housing catastrophe that is soon to come."
The Miami New Times in Florida. "Emma Haynes-Ocana, a psychology student at Florida International University, has spent the past month back at home in Pennsylvania. After a difficult couple of weeks living at the university's newest off-campus housing option, The One at University City, she decided to move home and leave her apartment in Miami behind."
"When she walked into her brand-new furnished unit in August, she noticed it was missing a dining table and chairs. The ceiling wasn't painted, and the walls still had markings left from construction. Parts of the bathroom had urine stains. She assumed that workers must have used it during construction and failed to clean it up. Haynes-Ocana also says she failed an exam because of the building's poor internet connection. (She says the professor gave her a second chance after hearing from multiple students and faculty members that it was a common issue.)"
"Billed as luxury student housing — with rent between $1,000 and $1,300 a month for a room in a shared apartment — the 886-unit building has seen a shaky first few months of occupancy. Residents arrived with construction still underway on several floors. Many rooms had holes in the ceiling. The elevator was filled with dust, and many hallways and floors bore residue from the ongoing construction."
"Some tenants say the rooms were unfinished, while others complain that their doors or windows don't shut properly. Accessories like microwaves and vanity mirrors were not working or were missing entirely. Several Google reviews contain complaints from residents who say their rooms came with garbage left by construction workers, including empty boxes of pizza and food left under the furniture. 'When people try to contact The One, they don't help. They ignore the comments on Instagram and they don't help when you call them. It's very frustrating,' Haynes-Ocana says."
From Bisnow. "Technology companies across the country expect to need less office space in the coming years, a sign of falling demand in the commercial real estate market. Tenant representation firm Savills released a survey Thursday of 250 technology companies that found 82% anticipate needing less office space over the next 12 to 18 months, and 55% plan to dispose of existing space over that time period."
"This disposal of space is already happening in a big way, with a wave of sublease listings hitting the market, Savills Executive Managing Director Zev Holzman said. 'Every day there is new sublease space hitting the market from tech companies of all sizes,' Holzman said."
"Before the pandemic, 71% of tech companies said their office density target was less than 150 SF per employee. Of those companies, 40% say they have not yet decided on their future density needs, 38% say they plan to increase their square footage per employee, 17% say they don't plan to change it and 5% plan to reduce it. 'A number of companies are saying the old model of 125 or 150 SF per employee is dead, and that's not coming back,' Holzman said."