The Real Estate Debt Cycle Has Entered A New Phase
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "The number of active listings in the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors region at the end of September was down 5.6% from a year ago, but an encouraging sign for potential buyers is that new listings rose by 30%, with more than 3,000 homes coming on the market in September. NVAR predicts the pace of sales will slow slightly in the coming months with more listings on the market. 'This is particularly true in the upper end of the market for single-family homes over $2 million and condos priced above $1 million, where inventory has entered a more balanced, or possibly even buyer’s market,' said Derrick Swaak, the 2020 NVAR president-elect."
"In the Boston metro area, some student apartments that are usually leased out by May or June for the next semester were still vacant in July, causing landlords to panic and start looking to sell, said broker Tina Bacci. 'Some of the landlords have just thrown up their hands and put it on the market,' she said."
"There are vacancies and deals to be had in Seattle’s luxury condominium sector, but for different reasons. When Forrest Moody, a listing agent with Redfin, moved to Seattle three years ago, he recalled, 'you couldn't find a one-bedroom condo for under $500,000,' and most listings had multiple offers over asking price. In contrast, the city had roughly nine months of condo supply on the market as of August, Seattle Met Magazine reported. 'You can now find condos for $400,000 when that was never the case before,' Mr. Moody said. 'Right now if you’re a smart investor, you would be buying.'"
"The median rental price in Manhattan was down 7.1% in September compared to the same time last year, according to a report from real estate appraisal and consulting firm Miller Samuel Inc. and real estate company Douglas Elliman. Median rents for studios were down 17.1% in September compared to the same time last year, with median rents at $2,184, while the median rents for one-bedrooms decreased by 14.7% to $2,977, according to the report. 'We have the highest vacancy rate we've ever tracked, at 5.5%,' says Jonathan Miller, president and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc.. 'The amount of inventory – at almost 16,000 – is a record and it's tripled from last year. So, we're seeing rents fall.'"
"The city of Rancho Mirage is set to discuss plans to phase out short term rentals in public neighborhoods by the end of the year. Homes in Magnesia Falls Cove in Rancho Mirage are just one of the neighborhoods that could phased out as the city looks eliminate short term rentals by 2021. 'That effects about 121 homeowners, 121 mortgages, we felt like we should have been told so that we can try to come up with a plan,' said Dennis Cooke, a short-term rental homeowner."
"The price just kept plummeting for this Bel-Air abode, which hit the market at $27 million last spring. After it resurfaced for sale at $18.9 million in May, Darius Mir, founder of office furniture manufacturing company 9to5, bought it for $17.7 million, records show."
"Steven McGee, of New York City, sold his Unit 24 condominium at 834 Evergreen Way to Thomas and Mary Reedy, of St. Louis, for $407,000. Built in 1991, it has two bedrooms, two baths and 1,440 square feet of living area. It sold for $475,000 in 2007."
"Kekoa Lansford used to earn about $1,600 per week working in marketing and sales for Maui Tickets For Less in his hometown of Lahaina. Lansford said he’s living in survival mode. And he said he’s angry. To get by, Lansford is deferring payments on his mortgage and car loan. 'It’s been pretty devastating,' Lansford said. 'Our entire industry is gone. I’m just suffering. They don’t want us to work so I’m just sitting on my ass here waiting for $232 a week.'"
"A red-hot housing market helped drive the vacant 'zombie' foreclosure rate to new lows in the first half of 2020, even as the coronavirus crisis threatens to trigger a resurgence in these vacant properties stuck in foreclosure limbo. However, that trend quickly changed in the third quarter, when the zombie foreclosure rate jumped to the highest level in three years, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. Additionally, seriously delinquent loans secured by vacant properties could represent a more significant rise in zombie foreclosures soon."
"Although there is no definitive data on vacant properties with mortgages that are at least 90 days late, applying the same 3% 'zombie' foreclosure rate to the 1.8 million mortgages that were seriously delinquent in June—that according to Black Knight—would translate into an additional 56,000 zombie foreclosures waiting in the wings. Given the recent sharp rise in seriously delinquent loans, that 56,000 would represent a 197% increase from the previous month and a 312% increase from a year ago."
"Net immigration to British Columbia has gone negative, plunging 111 per cent in the first half of this year compared to the first six months of 2019. 'Condo rents in Vancouver are down 17 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the third quarter of 2019,' the study found. What Mark Goodman, a multi-family specialist, and other agents are seeing is an 'avalanche' of apartment buildings hitting the Vancouver area. 'Some long-time landlords are getting out of this market,' he said."
"The UK Commercial Real Estate Mid-Year Report by The Business School shows that lending volumes fell 34% in the first six months of 2020 compared with the same period last year. Some lenders are only considering business with existing clients, and 22% of lenders have not undertaken any lending at all during the first half of the year. Dr Nicole Lux, author of the report, warned that the 'short-term effects of the coronavirus pandemic have only just become visible,' and more disruption was to come. Lux said 'the real estate debt cycle has entered a new phase.'"
"In Finland at the end of last year, there were about 300,000 vacant dwellings, according to Statistics Finland. The number means that about one in ten dwellings is not permanently occupied by anyone. The number of empty dwellings has increased significantly in the 21st century, by almost 130,000 dwellings. 'There are alarming signs in the Finnish housing market or a part of it when the number of empty apartments and the share of the housing stock is so large,' writes the group manager Paula Paavilainen Statistics Finland. Finland is urbanizing at a rapid pace, and therefore entire apartment buildings are now being sold for EUR 35,000 – 'It is difficult to find a purpose for those apartment buildings.'"
"For several landlords and property agents, the new normal is owed rent. A Lagos realtor, Jimi Oni, stated, 'I have a tenant, who asked me for a discount of 20 per cent from his usual rent. We are not saying increment now, we are talking about just the rent. He wants us to give him a discount before he can pay the rent.'"
"A report by weforum said real estate assets have fallen by 25 per cent. Real estate expert Adama Salihu, said, it is a reality. 'There is a very high default rate, at least based on my personal experience, around 80 to 90 per cent.'"
"A deeper correction in Hong Kong’s residential rents lies ahead in the last quarter, property agencies said, as its economic outlook gets gloomier. Last week, a flat in Aqua Marine in Cheung Sha Wan was leased for HK$20,000 a month, after its asking rent was cut by HK$3,000 a month, according to Jason Man of Hong Kong Property Agency. A shoebox flat at High One in the same neighbourhood was leased for HK$10,500, a 14 per cent discount, more than a month and a half ago, Hong Kong Property’s Ray Fong said."
"China Evergrande Group, the country's most indebted property developer, on Wednesday said it has raised $555 million in a slimmed-down share sale after initially targeting up to double that amount. China's second-biggest developer by sales sold 260.65 million shares at HK$16.50 ($2.13) each, the low end of a price range flagged by its bankers in a term sheet. The developer has been scrambling to raise cash as China's government tackles what it considers excessive borrowing in the real estate development sector with new debt-ratio caps."
"Since August, the firm has taken steps including raising $3 billion from selling a stake in a property management unit ahead of the unit's planned initial public offering, giving a 30% discount on properties to boost sales. Market concern has mounted in recent weeks that Evergrande was headed for a cash crush if it could not get government approval for a backdoor listing in Shenzhen that has languished for four years."
"Unit rents across inner Sydney are at their cheapest in years with prices falling to a six-year low, new data shows, the deepest decline over two consecutive quarters in at least 16 years. In one recent case a landlord opted to drop the asking rent for a two-bedroom city apartment from $1050 to $850 a week to get tenants interested, said Ray White’s chief executive of property management Emily Sim. 'The vacancy rate in city areas is high, and the only way to overcome it is to reduce rent to meet the market,' Ms Sim said. 'There are no new tenants, no planes landing with anyone from interstate or overseas … tenants are simply moving from property to property to get a better deal.'"
"Almost half of Australian home loans deferred due to the coronavirus pandemic are now being repaid, but that also means half are not. West Australian worker Dave isn't pleased with what he's been offered so far. When the father of four saw his work hours and income slide, he deferred the mortgage on his family home. 'The initial deferral was simple,' he said. But coming out the other side has been harder."
"With work picking up — but still greatly uncertain — Dave was offered to shift to an interest-only loan, but at a worse rate than what he previously had. 'They said 'you can go on interest only, it's 5.42 per cent' but I'm currently paying 3.58 per cent,' he said, describing his principal and interest arrangement — loans that are typically priced lower than interest-only. 'I told them, that's just not on. It seems to me to be profiteering.'"