A Reality Check On Real Estate Investing
A report from DS News. "Delinquencies are at an all-time high— 'that's the headline,' Rick Shagra, SVP at RealtyTrac said but suggested that listeners consider some factors before panicking or view this like we would have viewed serious delinquencies a decade ago. The exception to the rule might be FHA loans, which are running about twice as delinquent as loans overall. 'The FHA borrower who probably is at the low end of the income scale, and who probably took out a loan with very little downpayment, won't maybe have the equity cushion that other borrowers might have.'"
"There was a 24% uptick of completed foreclosure auctions to a six-month high in September, said Daren Blomquist, VP Market Economics at Auction.com. The moratoria have played a part in creating a backlog of likely foreclosures that an Auction.com analysis estimates will grow to more than 1.1 million by Q2 2021. 'Now it's not going to all happen evenly over the next five years … but we're, we're coming off with that baseline level of about 250,000, adding another 60% roughly per year,' he explains."
From Realtor.com. "In November, urban tech centers such as the Bay Area, Manhattan, Boston, Seattle, and Washington, D.C all saw the largest declines in rents compared to last year. In November, San Francisco again topped the list of rent declines in all three unit types with studio rents declining by 35.2 percent, one-bedrooms by 27.0 percent, and two-bedrooms by 22.2 percent."
"In November, the median studio rent in Manhattan was $2,300, down 22.0 percent year-over-year, accelerating from 20.0 percent last month. One-bedroom rents in Manhattan were $3,175, down 18.6 percent compared to last year, and accelerating from being down 16.7 percent last month. Two-bedroom rents in Manhattan were $5,265 in November, down 14.4 percent compared to last year, and accelerating from being down 11.1 percent last month."
From Bloomberg on New York. "The pandemic is taking a bite out of the city’s revenue, with businesses shut down and some residents moving to the suburbs. That’s forcing spending cuts, including on affordable housing, said Alicia Glen, founder of development firm MSquared. 'People shouldn’t be dancing in the streets if rents drop 30 or 40%,' Glen said. 'You need a strong housing market for a tax base.'"
The Real Deal on New York. "Brooklyn developer Yoel Goldman can’t seem to catch a break. In the past two weeks, Israeli authorities imposed a fine on Goldman’s company All Year Management for providing misleading financial information, and the firm paused its payments to bondholders. Now, a lender is seeking to foreclose on part of All Year’s trophy asset: The Denizen, a luxury rental complex in Bushwick. An affiliate of Mack Real Estate plans to sell the interests of the collateral of a $65 million mezzanine loan. The collateral consists of the second phase of the 900-unit apartment complex, according to marketing materials reviewed by The Real Deal."
"In recent years, All Year has become one of the more prominent landlords in gentrifying Brooklyn neighborhoods by taking advantage of cheap financing on the Israeli bond market. Its portfolio includes 1,198 multifamily units and 184,179 square feet of commercial space, with properties in Bushwick, Williamsburg and Bedford-Stuyvesant."
From Real Estate Journals on Texas. "JLL’s capital markets team has been engaged to market the sale of a $22.5 million non-performing multi-housing loan secured by the first mortgage on a low-rise, garden-style apartment property located in Houston. The loan was originated in September 2016 and is currently in maturity default, offering investors a unique opportunity to acquire a non-performing note at an attractive basis."
The Washington Post. "Archie Djabatey was not a typical resident in this small four-unit building in Northeast Washington’s Deanwood neighborhood. He had hoped this property would prove to be the 'start of my legacy for my future kids.' But Djabatey’s aspirations of riding the District’s real estate market to a measure of financial security he didn’t know growing up in Southeast Washington are now complicated. In February, Djabatey won an eviction case against a tenant for failure to pay rent, the end of a saga that included claims of drug use, strangers allegedly spinning through the tenant’s apartment at all hours and complaints from his other residents."
"But then the pandemic interrupted the legal process, and nine months later the tenant was still there rent-free, leaving Djabatey, a government contractor with the Federal Protective Service, without the monthly $1,002 rent to cover his own mortgage payments. 'It’s coming out of my pocket,' he said. 'I’m in a very tight situation.'"
From Socket Site in California. "With a typical slowdown in new listing activity and seasonal culling of unsold listings, which are likely return to the market as 'new” in the New Year, underway, the net number of homes listed for sale in San Francisco dropped another 7 percent over the past week to 1,410, a number which should continue to drop by up to 50 percent through the end of the year. That being said, inventory levels are still running 130 percent higher than they were at the same time last year, with 150 percent more condos on the market and 77 percent more single-family homes."
"Of those homes currently listed for sale in the city, roughly 38 percent are now listed for under a million dollars (versus 25 percent at the same time last year) and 34 percent have undergone at least one price reduction, including 27 percent of the single-family homes and versus 30 percent at the same time last year."
The Wall Street Journal on California. "Nile Niami, the brash real-estate developer known for his over-the-top megamansions, has placed one of his high-priced spec homes in bankruptcy. A company controlled by Mr. Niami filed for bankruptcy protection for a home the developer built in West Hollywood, records show. The property first came on the market for $55 million in early 2019, but the price was later reduced to $39.995 million. The property isn’t currently publicly listed for sale."
"The filing values the property at $30 million, and lists the company’s total liabilities at $59.244 million. Mr. Niami was facing the prospect of a foreclosure sale at the property, records show. In April, a limited-liability company tied to Canadian investor Lucien Remillard, one of his lenders and a longtime partner, filed a notice of default on the property."
"In a statement, a spokesman for Mr. Niami said: 'Nile had a creditor who misrepresented facts, and put Nile in an untenable situation trying to force a foreclosure sale. Nile is seeking all legal remedies to rectify the situation and protect his asset.'"
From Bloomberg on Canada. "Merilee Wright doesn’t even officially own her condo in downtown Toronto yet and she’s already trying to sell it. The 56-year-old former bank executive agreed to buy the two-bedroom unit before construction got underway in 2018, a time when surging valuations and rising rents made Toronto condos seem like a perfect investment. Now, with the Covid-19 pandemic sending rents plunging and spurring an exodus from dense downtown housing, the unit is complete and Wright faces a choice between paying out more on her mortgage than she’d collect in rent each month, or bailing out of her investment at a discount."
"'Even if we get a tenant, after we close we’ll still have negative cash flow and that situation will exist until the rents in the city rebound,' she said. 'You’ve got kind of the perfect storm happening with downtown condos in Toronto right now.'"
"The worry for Canada is that its major cities contain a lot of other people facing the same problem. The dense thickets of condo towers that have transformed skylines in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal over the last decade were financed, in part, by tens of thousands of mom-and-pop investors buying individual units to rent them out. With rents continuing to drop, similar financial distress among these small-time landlords could become more widespread."
"In Vancouver, similar distress is showing up in a public Facebook Inc. group frequented by Vancouver area real estate agents. Posts began appearing last month saying clients were willing to take a loss in order to get out of contracts for units finishing construction over the next year. 'Priced $55k below purchase price,' read one all caps message from Nov. 10, trying to sell a two-bedroom unit due to be completed in December. 'Current owner is selling at a $50,000 loss,' said a post from Nov. 3 offering two bedrooms near Vancouver’s waterfront set to finish construction in the first half of 2021."
"'It’s the next six to 12 months that really is what’s going to be painful,' said Wright, the Toronto condo investor who reckons she and her business partner could sustain the losses, but is also looking for a buyer if she can find one. She called it a 'reality check' on real estate investing."
From Domain News on Australia. "Owners of apartments in the blighted Mascot Towers are finally to get their day in court, accusing the developer, builder and engineers of the next-door development of being responsible for work that caused catastrophic damage to their homes. The hearing follows an extraordinary general meeting of the owners in late November where they agreed to borrow a further $22.5 million in strata loans on top of the $10.5 million they’ve already borrowed to both pursue legal action, and fix their crumbling building."
"They plan to pay back the loans via higher levies, and special levies, over the next 15 years. One source says the latest estimates put the potential total costs as high as $53 million. 'I’m still bewildered that something like this could have happened,' said one owner, Anthony Najafian, 39."
"'It’s terrible that this has happened. The level of sacrifice we’ve had to make, with everyone crying every day and so upset, it’s taking such a huge personal toll. I’ve lost my life savings and my wife and I have had to abandon all hope of having a second child because we won’t be able to give another child the quality of life they deserve. I have three people relying on me – my wife, our child and my disabled brother – and we know all the money we’ve raised is still only the tip of the iceberg.'"
"Meanwhile, the owners are unable to sell their apartments since they’re uninhabitable, and no one knows how much they’ll eventually cost to remedy. Another source involved with the building said, 'A lot of the owners are struggling at the moment. They have a lot of financial pressures on them, and they’ve been effectively homeless for the past 18 months.'"