This Demand Shift Can Manifest In Price Changes As The Market Finds A New Equilibrium
A report from USA Today on Florida. "Susana Lay worked from dawn to dusk alongside her grandfather while he sold and repaired Singer sewing machines in New York City. Soon, Lay was able to use her savings to buy her first home in her 20s. One property turned into six, purchased together with her parents and siblings over the course of three decades. But with COVID-19, her tenants lost their jobs and couldn't make rent. Lay, too, fell behind on her mortgage payments and entered forbearance."
"'Day by day, COVID is reducing everything that I have built,' said Lay. By January, the combined rent owed to landlords nationwide could reach $24 billion, according to a study. Lay said it has been scary because this is the first time she has defaulted on her loans. 'Can you believe that I am negotiating with the banks over a loan I've had for 20 years?' said Lay."
"Lay's story is one of thousands in a place like South Florida. For Hector Alvarez, 62, real estate was always supposed to be safe. After arriving in South Florida from Cuba, his family saw investing in rental properties as the only way they'd become financially independent and save up for retirement."
"Of his seven units in Miami, most of his tenants lost their income due to COVID-19. At least three of them have not been able to pay him since April. Alvarez calculated he's lost about $72,000 on rent alone. For several of his tenants, he has also paid their water, electricity and cable, which can quickly add up to $500 a month each. He also owes $83,000 in property taxes and insurance for all of his properties."
"Early in the pandemic, Alvarez depleted his small savings trying to cover mortgage payments. He has maxed out credit cards to pay utilities and expenses, including caring for his 91-year-old father, who requires round-the-clock care. 'We've been living on credit cards, paper clips and chewing gum,' said Alvarez, who opted into forbearance for six months and is now in the process of refinancing. 'It's hard because, on the one hand, I am being understanding with them, but the banks aren't being understanding with me.'"
The Real Deal on New York. "Isaac Kassirer’s Emerald Equity and David Werner Real Estate Investments have fallen behind on a CMBS loan backing a high-end rental building at 2 Cooper Square. The firms are 30 days delinquent on the $65 million loan, Commercial Observer reported. Atlantic Development Group built the 143-unit luxury high-rise between East Fourth and East Fifth streets in 2010. Two years later, Wafra Capital Partners purchased the 70-year leasehold for $134 million, then sold it in 2019 to Emerald Equity and Werner for $85 million — a $50 million loss."
"Vacancies have plagued rental buildings in Manhattan. In October, the vacancy rate reached 5.75 percent while the total number of listings reached a 14-year high, at 15,923. Elsewhere in its portfolio, Emerald Equity has also fallen behind. Its lender, Ladder Capital, moved to foreclose after the firm defaulted on a $32 million loan for four of its Harlem rental buildings."
From Patch New York. "The New York City housing market plummeted in 2020, and real estate in Greenwich Village saw some of the most significant dips in all five boroughs, according to a new study by StreetEasy. The median asking prices for homes and rents in Greenwich Village took a nosedive in 2020. Median Home Asking Price 2020: $1,499,000. YoY Change From 2019: -16.50 percent. Median Rent Asking Price 2020: $3,000. YoY Change From 2019: -32.50 percent."
"The change in the asking price for rent in Greenwich Village was the second-biggest drop of any neighborhood in New York City. SoHo was the only area in the five boroughs to see a steeper decline at -37.80 percent."
"Greenwich Village saw a staggering 99.70 percent increase in the median recorded sales price during the time period. The massive increase in median recorded sales price comes in stark contrast to the significant drop in asking prices, but it most likely down to a handful of extremely expensive apartments selling in the neighborhood."
The Washingtonian. "Luxury apartment buildings have lost some of their luster during the coronavirus pandemic. In its 2020 third-quarter report, Delta Associates found that DC rents in these types of high-end properties fell 10.7 percent, compared to 2019. Vacancy rates, meanwhile, rose to nearly 8 percent, compared to 4.4 percent last year. As a result, according to the Delta report: 'Concessions are now nearly ubiquitous across the metro area, with multiple months of free rent being offered to entice tenants to move in, especially in high-rise product.'"
From Seattle PI in Washington. "The number of vacant apartments in Seattle shot up over the past year, according to a new report. Apartment vacancies in the city have gone from 4.4% in February to 10.3% in November, the report from ApartmentList found. And as vacancies rose, rent prices went down in Seattle. Since the beginning of the year, rents in Seattle declined more than 16%. 'This demand shift was a shock to the rental market, which can manifest in price and vacancy changes as the market finds a new equilibrium,' the report said."
"Many of the cities that saw the most significant rent decreases throughout the pandemic also saw an increase in vacancies. These included cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and New York, often ranked as the most expensive for renters across the country. 'With so many vacant apartments to choose from, prospective renters have leverage while landlords must drop their prices to attract new tenants,' the report said."
From Bisnow California. "A Bay Area real estate company and its owner allegedly defrauded hundreds of investors out of $119M through 'a continuous series of misrepresentations and omissions and other deceptive conduct,' the Securities and Exchange Commission alleges. Real estate development company SiliconSage Builders and its lone owner, Sanjeev Acharya, convinced roughly 250 investors, mainly members of the South Asian community, that his projects were great investments. But the company and almost all of its projects have not turned a profit for years, the SEC claims in its Dec. 21 complaint filed in the U.S. District Court, Northern District of California."
"Acharaya allegedly never mentioned that the company was having financial difficulties and continued to raise more than $119M in that same time period, the complaint said. Some of the newer investors’ money was used to pay previous investors, and investors were told they could redeem their investments even though there was not enough money to honor those requests, according to the complaint."
The Santa Monica Mirror in California. "Landlords are suing the City of Santa Monica, claiming a recently-adopted ban on short-term rentals violates the U.S. Constitution and the California Coastal Act, among other offenses. The suit also states that the short term rental ban harms landlords who are collecting less rent during the pandemic."
"According to a November report from Apartment List, Santa Monica rents have declined 'decreased sharply' by 12.8 percent in comparison to the same time last year. Currently, median rents in Santa Monica stand at $1,870 for a one-bedroom apartment and $2,352 for a two-bedroom, the report. This decline is the steepest decline of any city in Southern California included in the report."
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Ever since the middle of May, it has been the same thing over here on the Westside of Los Angeles. Beep! Beep! Beep! Beep! Multiple times a week, I hear the telltale sound of a moving truck backing into the loading area of my building, accompanied by the occasional crash and shout. At this point, I’ve lost track of just how many of my neighbors, as well as others on my block, have moved out their mostly patio-less condos and apartments."
"So it wasn’t at all surprising to read the latest report from the California Department of Finance, which found that population growth in the state had slowed to a crawl as fewer people moved here, more people moved away and fewer people were born. Los Angeles, the state’s most populous county, logged the biggest net loss with about 40,000 fewer residents."
"'I hope they do not see it as a symptom of COVID,' said Dowell Myers, a professor and director of the Population Dynamics Research Group at USC. 'Because then they’ll think, ‘Ah, a vaccine! We’ve got that covered now.’ That’s the danger. COVID is what’s newsworthy, but COVID is not what’s going on in this report.' It’s about affordability, Myers added."
"'Even though they may make a pretty significant salary in California, I think they realize that a lot of their income may be going to housing where in other places that may not,' said David Garcia, policy director at UC Berkeley’s Terner Center for Housing Innovation. 'Just because they can afford to live here doesn’t mean anything.'"