Investors Are Weakening
A report from Real Estate Weekly on New York. "The City’s largest organization of landlords of rent-regulated apartments is calling on the city to freeze this year’s property tax assessments. The city’s new tax assessment roll shows the value of Class 1 properties, that’s one-to-three family homes, went up by 5.3 percent to $23.2 billion. The overall market value of Class 2 (cooperatives, condominiums and rental apartment buildings) fell to $320 billion in FY22, decreasing by $27.6 billion, or eight percent. But in Brooklyn, where values fell 5.2 percent, billable assessments have increased 3.2 percent."
"Through all of this landlords have still been required to pay their property taxes, mortgages, water bills, and other building operating expenses. 'As landlords’ struggles continue because of dwindling rent collections, the City is once again proposing increased property tax assessments for hundreds of building owners across the five boroughs,' said Joseph Strasburg, president of the Rent Stabilization Association, which represents 25,000 landlords."
The Beacon Hill Times in Massachusetts. "Boston has seen, according to one study, the median price for a one-bedroom fall by 17 percent citywide between January 2020 and this month, and Beacon Hill hasn’t been immune to this trend. Will Natoli, who rents about 50 apartments each year said, 'Landlords keep slashing prices until something sticks.'"
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Tenants are abandoning leases and many landlords worry they won’t be able to recover overdue rent, said Daniel Yukelson, executive director of the Apartment Assn. of Greater Los Angeles. Additionally, the L.A. rental market has dipped, with median two-bedroom rents in the region now at $1,990, nearly 10% lower than last year, according to Apartment List."
"With rents going unpaid and vacancy rates ticking up, landlords are having troubles paying their mortgages and other bills, Yukelson said. 'I am hearing more and more from property owners that are concerned about holding on, that have received notices of default and have had to dip into emergency funds or retirement savings to keep their rental properties afloat,' Yukelson said."
The Commercial Property Executive. "According to Cushman & Wakefield, San Francisco’s office vacancy rate reached 16.7 percent at the end of the fourth quarter, up 300 basis points over the previous quarter and 11 percent compared to the same period of 2019. 'San Francisco’s office market has suffered the nation’s most severe drop in occupancy and asking rents. Remote work and the pandemic have proven to be a major threat to the city,' said Joe Muratore, co-CEO of Graceada Partners."
"The report about the city’s financial plan also notes that office activities generated about 75 percent of the city’s GDP before the coronavirus outbreak. The absence of office workers has severely damaged the city’s downtown, and sales tax dropped by 43 percent between the second quarter of 2019 and the second quarter of 2020. Due to the exodus of tech workers, however, 'the city also saw virtually no growth in online sales tax,' the report says. Muratore also expects a 10 to 15 percent drop in the value of downtown real estate and projects that the recovery might take four to six years."
"Another indicator that the outmigration of office workers, specifically those in the tech industry, is putting downward pressure on San Francisco’s economy is that apartment rents have significantly dropped in areas where large concentrations of tech workers live, according to The Five-Year Financial Plan report. Asking rents decreased 25 percent in November 2020 compared to November 2019, the largest drop recorded in a major city across the country."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "Real estate agents in the Greater Toronto Area often talk of the 'buyer fatigue' that can take hold when clients become worn down by fierce bidding wars and runaway prices. Now some 'seller fatigue' is infusing the downtown condo market. Many landlords who have been struggling to rent units have decided to try their luck at selling, but that has been a challenge too."
"'I think certain investors are starting to get tired,' says Manu Singh, a real estate agent with Right at Home Realty Inc. 'I’m seeing some seller fatigue.'"
"New condo listings hit the market in early January, he says, and the fresh supply is motivating some sellers to agree to offers that they would have spurned in the fall. 'Investors are weakening,' he says, of those who haven’t been able to collect rent or sell the unit at the price they hoped for."
From Bloomberg on the UK. "London’s luxury housing market is enduring a lonely lockdown. Homes in the most expensive areas of the capital are sitting empty for more than two months before finding tenants, the longest waiting period since the last financial crisis, according to LonRes. And that’s despite rents recently plummeting at the fastest annual pace in a decade."
An exodus of office workers and dearth of global visitors has hammered swanky hotspots such as Mayfair and Knightsbridge, forcing landlords to slash their rents or see their properties stay unoccupied. The number of luxury pads up for rent in central London has surged by 75% from a year earlier. For owners of the multi-million pound homes, it could be a long winter."
"'It’s probably going to be another few months of accepting lower rents than maybe you’ve historically got,' said Marcus Dixon, head of research at LonRes. 'It’s just about the need for landlords to ride this out.'"
"A flood of vacant homes came onto the market. Landlords have also struggled to fill short-term rental properties popular with tourists as well as those aimed at international students, workers and visitors. That doesn’t look set to improve anytime soon, with the government closing all travel corridors this week."
"London luxury rents are seeing the biggest annual slides since the aftermath of the financial crisis, plummeting more than 14% across the capital in December compared with a year earlier. It’s not only the city center that’s suffering; the outskirts are seeing the steepest falls as wealthy tenants choose to live even further afield than the suburbs, said Dixon."
"Sellers aren’t faring much better than landlords. Before the coronavirus struck London, the sales market briefly enjoyed two quarters of growth before prices slumped, continuing an overall decline that’s been playing out for years."
The New Daily on Australia. "Apartment prices in Australia’s three largest capital cities either stagnated or declined through the pandemic year. But in dreaded news for apartment owners, there’s more pain on the horizon. High-rise CBD apartments – reeling from low migration, oversupply and bad publicity following Sydney’s Opal Tower saga – will continue to lose value until a vaccine is rolled out, SQM Research founder Louis Christopher said."
"Mr Christopher said they were particularly on the nose with investors as COVID-19 had encouraged a regional housing boom and dragged down inner-city rents. And although green shoots are emerging, Mr Christopher told The New Daily it was a 'zero-sum game' for apartment owners. According to SQM analysis, Sydney CBD apartments on average sell for nearly $290,000 less today than in January 2020."
"So, with major city apartments under a cloud, how can apartment hunters avoid buying a dud? Buying off the plan – where owners enter contracts to buy an apartment upon its completion 12-18 months down the track – is inherently precarious, Suburbanite’s Ms Porter said. Since the Royal Commission, lenders wait until 90 days before settlement to assess a borrower’s lending capacity, she said."
"This means owners, who are relying on getting the right level of finance to fund their purchase, could face a shortfall if their bank believes they are too risky to provide a larger loan or decides the apartment is worth less than the sale price. If they are unable to make up the shortfall, they risk losing their deposit."
"'Not all lenders will use JobKeeper in their measure of sufficient income, so that could impact their ability to borrow,' Ms Porter said. 'And if the lenders shift policies and make it harder to borrow, which has happened a lot in the last 18 months, the buyer could be left in a position where they’ve signed a contract and they’re liable to pay a 10 per cent deposit if they default.'"
"Charter Keck Cramer director of research and strategy Angie Zigomanis found that, in pre-COVID times, over half of purchased Melbourne CBD apartments sold at a later date for the same value or less. He told The New Daily that until overseas students and investors return, inner-city apartment hunters should recognise prices may drop further. 'If you’re trying to mitigate losses, look at buildings that might be a little more unique in the marketplace,' Mr Zigomanis said."