Valuations Are On An Untethered Space Walk Away From Few Private Market Comparables
A report from the Palm Beach Post in Florida. "The Palm Beach County courts will, again, bring in jurors for smaller criminal and civil cases in the coming weeks. Chief Judge Krista Marx said the one area they are concerned about are foreclosures and evictions, which have been building as a federal moratorium has been in place. 'Albeit the case load has grown (in general), by and large our numbers are not that bad,' Marx said. "What we’re going to have is a horrible of influx of foreclosure and evictions in the coming months.'"
The Boston Herald in Massachusetts. "The price to rent a one-bedroom apartment in Boston has plummeted 18% since last January, as the coronavirus pandemic has driven away student renters and many city dwellers, according recent data. One obvious factor driving down the local rates is remote learning: Boston’s tens of thousands of college students left university campuses in droves and have yet to return. 'We know the bottom fell out of the college market very quickly in 2020,' said Doug Quattrochi, executive director of MassLandlords."
"But that’s not the only reason prices are dropping. Quattrochi, a landlord himself, says he and other property managers have seen unemployment affect people’s ability to sign new leases."
The Forest Hills Post in New York. "The rental market in Queens has taken a hit over the past year — and western Queens saw a heavy decline. The prices plummeted most in Long Island City and Astoria, the report revealed. Other neighborhoods in the borough saw rental price declines but they were less severe. In Long Island City apartments of all sizes were down — with the larger units hit hardest."
From Deadline Detroit in Michigan. "The condo market in Detroit favors buyers now. Detroit has about 11 months' worth of inventory, Kirk Pinho of Crain's Detroit Business reports. The last time Detroit's condo market was this saturated was 2010-11 -- still better than 2006 when there was three years of surplus."
"'Four to six months is a healthy market where (supply) and demand are nicely balanced. If the inventory goes lower than that, it becomes a seller's market, higher than that, a buyer's market,' Jerome Huez, owner of Detroit-based Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices The Loft Warehouse, a residential brokerage, tells Crain's."
From Bisnow Washington DC. "WeWork plans to close four more D.C.-area coworking spaces next month after closing a trio of locations in October. A WeWork spokesperson confirmed to Bisnow that the company decided to close locations in Crystal City, Dupont Circle, Chinatown and the H Street corridor. The company plans to move out of the spaces on Feb. 26, and it identified nearby WeWork locations for members of each space to relocate. The company decided to close the spaces in order to 'streamline our portfolio toward profitable growth,' the spokesperson said."
From WKRN on Tennessee. "Two major Nashville properties will be auctioned by court order after a partnership dissolution including a large Murfreesboro Pike hotel and eight undeveloped Midtown lots. 'Auctions are generally reserved for the properties that are hard to value,' Justin Ochs said, Vice President of National Development at Real Look."
"'If we could get rid of some of these hotels, this whole corridor could change overnight,' said Bobby Joslin, a well-known Nashville businessman."
From Skilled Housing News. "Credit Suisse has downgraded its outlook for nursing home heavyweight Genesis HealthCare, citing low occupancy, a looming debt burden, and continued uncertainty around future government support. Genesis’s buildings were 76.5% full as of the third quarter of 2020, far below the mid-80s figure that would ensure at least break-even cash flow, according to the analysts. 'GEN’s debt / lease load was high entering the pandemic, and, as of 3Q20, GEN was burning about $75 million of cash per quarter,' the analysts wrote."
"The provider is not alone in its COVID-related strains, with nursing home occupancy at record lows in markets across the country and coronavirus-related expenses still high. But Genesis in particular has been under the microscope after publicly disclosing serious doubts about its future as a going concern in August 2020."
From Yahoo Finance. "Nomadic Value Partners, a research and portfolio management firm, published its fourth-quarter 2020 Investor Letter. In the letter, they talked about how the US equity market is undeniably overvalued, and is most probably in a ‘bubble’ territory. 'COVID has turned office central business district real estate (office CBD) upside down as work-from-home has accelerated a suburbanization trend. In major metro markets, vacancy has increased to roughly 15% and subletting is at levels not seen since the tech bubble. Many feel this is only the beginning as COVID has forced most companies to rethink their overall office needs farther out than 2021.'"
"'A lack of price discovery has created a very challenging environment for investors. Transaction volume came to a halt this year and lease renewal terms are less meaningful due to an overwhelming number of short-term renewals. As a result, public REIT valuations are on an untethered space walk away from few private market comparables.'"
From Mission Local in California. "Before the pandemic, the Valencia Street corridor was a jaunty stretch of high-end boutiques and small-batch eateries. Now many stores seem to be offering the same thing: Plywood. 'It’s really, really, really, really bad,' said Clinton Textor, a broker with Marcus and Millichap, speaking about the present moment in which businesses seem to be dropping like flies. 'Some of the commercial corridors in the city might be forever changed.' Pre-pandemic, such real estate could go for $6 a square foot each month. Now, according to some estimates, it can be had for nearly half of that."
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "How do you kickstart a historically ambitious, multibillion-dollar housing development while the world’s economies remain paralyzed? That’s the dilemma facing Concord after 2020, a year that not only dashed financial markets and upended everyday life across the Bay Area, but also wrecked this city’s critical redevelopment project at the Concord Naval Weapons Station."
"'I don't think they would have walked away' if they’d known the scale of the crisis brewing, says William Goodman, an organizer with the housing group Hope Solutions. 'There were jobs, there was housing, there was a lot of land; we had a pot of gold.'"
From KTLA. "California Gov. Gavin Newsom and the state’s top two legislative leaders pledged Monday to pay off 80% of most people’s unpaid rent that has piled up during the coronavirus pandemic — but only if landlords agree to forgive the other 20%. Landlords aren’t happy with everything in the bill, either. But the California Apartment Association, which represents owners, investors, developers and managers of rental homes and apartment complexes, said the most important part 'is the payment of dollars for rent that is owed.'"
"'Without this money, many landlords are at risk of losing their rental units,' said Debra Carlton, the association’s executive vice president of state public affairs."