There Are Implications To Our Ability To Create Wealth If Our Houses Appraise For 50% Less Than Its Value
A report from Forbes on New York. "The former Manhattan pied-à-terre of late theatrical producer James Nederlander, listed for $27.5 million in 2019, will be auctioned off later this week with no reserve. The auction of #10 at 838 Fifth Ave., a condominium right by Central Park, will take place on Feb. 19. The current listing price is $16.99 million."
The Auburn Examiner in Washington. "Due to the economics of scarcity, housing prices are soaring across Western Washington. That has many of us worried about the sustainability of our current market. To be fair, 15%+ year over year appreciation growth is NOT sustainable if it happened every year for years and years on end. But before throwing your hands up and declaring THIS market a bubble that’s bound to pop, let’s investigate What’s Possible?"
"Luckily for us, we have a near-perfect comparable city to benchmark off of about 850 miles to the south: San Francisco. For as long as I can remember, San Francisco has consistently been about 10 years ahead of us. Check this out: In January of 2011, the median price of a home in San Francisco County was about $750,000. In January of 2021, the median price of a home in King County was about $725,000. Not exact, but pretty darn close."
"So given the similarities between cities, we have the opportunity to project what Seattle’s future might look like based on what things look like down in SFO. So how are things looking down there? According to Altos Research, their median SFR price is about $1.5m right now, and price per square foot is $954. Seattle’s median SFR price right now is about $810,000 with a price per square foot of $509. So for as unsustainable and ridiculous as OUR market might seem, we are a 45% off clearance sale compared to San Francisco."
From ABC 7 in California. "Paul Austin and his wife Tenisha Tate Austin feel like they captured a slice of the American dream when they purchased their first home together in 2016. The couple secured an original Marin City pole home, but faced a number of challenges in obtaining the property. After moving in to their home, which was originally built in the 1960s, the Austins staged major renovations. Then, the Austins got the home appraised."
"'I read the appraisal, I looked at the number I was like, 'This is unbelievable,' said Tate Austin. The family tells ABC7 that their appraiser was an older white woman. The Austins are convinced race was a factor in her estimate. The home appraised for $989,000, or just $100,000 more than what the Austins got it appraised for prior to their renovations, despite $400,000 in costs. 'It was a slap in the face,' said Austin."
"The family immediately called their lender and pushed back. After a month of escalating their complaints, The Austins were approved for a second appraisal. When the day came for inspection, they got creative with the process. 'We had a conversation with one of our white friends, and she said 'No problem. I'll be Tenisha. I'll bring over some pictures of my family,' Austin said. 'She made our home look like it belonged to her.'"
"The home appraised for $1,482,000, or roughly $500,000 more than it appraised for just weeks prior. The Austins were outraged. They believe this is another ugly result of larger, systemic issues in the United States. 'There are implications to our ability to create generational wealth or passing things on if our houses appraise for 50% less than its value,' said Tate Austin."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "Converting office towers into something new – whether it be to hotel rooms, condos or affordable housing – will help Calgary deal with a massive glut of empty office space. But they can be daunting projects. Beyond finding a building that will physically work, it’s tricky to make a financial case in a down economy. Despite no major new towers opening in the past two years, Calgary’s downtown office vacancy rate sits at 30 per cent, and the market is crowded with lessees trying to sublet their space. There are concerns the office vacancy numbers could get worse before they get better."
"'If you look at vacancy, it can be very, very daunting,' said Mary Moran, chief executive of Calgary Economic Development, a not-for-profit corporation focused on attracting new companies and industries to the city. 'We built office towers based on a $100 oil strategy, and primarily for white-collar workers. And the reality is, the energy industry is not going to be our mega-job creator.'"
"Developer Ajay Nehru said conversions are far from being a financial home run. As the owner of the mixed-use Westview Heights building at 825 8 Ave. S.W., he felt deep ambivalence about whether to convert the building’s four floors of empty office space to residential apartments. Even the residential rental market has weakened, he noted. But ultimately, Mr. Nehru said he decided to proceed with the project that began construction this week, because the building already has 300 rental suites. And it’s better than having the eight, ninth, 10th and penthouse levels of the 40-storey building sit empty."
"'I already have the building staffed. I have the management. Those are the benefits to me. But if I didn’t have those benefits, the economics would be extremely marginal,' he said. 'Some of the numbers I’ve seen on conversions, I’ve said, ‘that’s higher than doing a new build.’"
From Newstalk on Ireland. "Thousands of apartments due to be built in Dublin in the coming years will end up in the hands of large international funds rather than homeowners, according to a housing expert. It comes after an analysis by the Business Post found that more than 26,000 apartments due to be built in the coming years will cost significantly more than the mortgage-borrowing ability of most first-time buyers."
"'I think the honest answer is that it will end up being the institutional funds that end up buying them,' said Dr Lorcan Sirr, DCU Senior Lecturer in Planning and Development. 'The large international monied bodies, who have bought up 90% of all apartments in the last couple of years anyway, to rent them out, fairly expensively it has to be said, to punters looking for somewhere to live in the city. So, it is not going to be your average couple.'"
"He said there are a number of problems with Irish apartment living, noting that Ireland 'bad history of building very shoddy apartments.' 'They are making the floor to ceiling height lower, there are less windows in them, they are darker and they are smaller – all that kind of stuff. People are not really buying into this. It is hard enough to get people to buy apartments already without making them into rabbit hutches.'"
"'There is always a drive for new builds – we must build new, new, new – but there are about 200,000 empty houses around the country and Dublin alone has about 21,000 empty houses so they could make a start by getting the empty stock we already have – which is typically in established locations already,' he said. 'The second thing is that we have acres of land. Despite the fact we think there is no land in the city, there is tonnes of land around most cities in Ireland – it is just badly used.'"
The Malaysian Reserve. "The Johor property market is in for another bumpy ride this year with the absence of foreign buyers, particularly from Hong Kong and China. 'The majority of the overhang property in Johor is located in the Iskandar region, which includes Johor Baru, and the fundamental issue or root cause of it is that the units were originally built with foreign buyers as the target market,' property consultant Bruce Lee told The Malaysian Reserve. 'The pandemic outbreak is one of the elements that made matters worse. The demand for unsold properties that were originally built for foreigners has become almost non-existence.'"
From Domain News in Australia. "The price gap between Melbourne houses and units has widened over the past year. Buyer’s advocate Cate Bakos says if you are looking to buy an apartment for yourself, 'then now is a great time to buy because the disparity between housing and units hasn’t been this wide in some time.' 'There is a real window of opportunity while we don’t have international students arriving or money coming in from the mainland, because investor appetite is low, there is reduced competition, motivated vendors and even some discounting,' she says."
"'The bad news is that, until we get overseas students returning, these places will remain out of favour and prices will remain low, so buying one for short-term gain is not a good idea,' she says."
"Miriam Sandkuhler, CEO and property advocate at Property Mavens, says the current low appetite among investors for apartments in many inner-city areas does provide a good opportunity for some buyers, as long as they 'cherry pick' the right kind of apartment."
"'Melbourne has seen an oversupply of apartments in some areas, particularly in inner Melbourne,' she says. 'And if you search for apartments in the CBD, for example, right now, there are hundreds and hundreds of apartments for sale. But, to be honest, there’s a lot of rubbish out there. There’s a lot of poorly built investment stock that doesn’t make a good home.'"