The More Likely Source Of Risk Comes Down To Leverage, As It So Often Does
A report from TNN on Oklahoma. "Lawton real estate agent John Naberhaus said he’s been selling homes for 31 years and never seen a market quite like this one. 'What’s interesting is that used to a $300,000 house in our market was kind of the exception,' he said, 'and they were harder to sell and today they are a hot commodity.'"
"But it’s not just in southwest Oklahoma. 'We’re hearing it as a national trend throughout the U.S.,' he said. 'Lawton typically doesn’t follow the national trend. We’re typically more dependent on what’s happening say at Fort Sill, but right now we’re certainly following that national trend where houses are hot.'"
From Bloomberg. "Joaquin Villanueva, an airport janitor who owns a three-unit rental house in East Boston, had to take out a home-equity loan just to pay the bills. One tenant, eight months behind on rent, vanished one night in March. An unemployed restaurant dish washer in another unit owes $5,000. 'I don’t want to lose my house so I’m doing whatever I have to do,' said the El Salvadoran immigrant who wipes the floors at nearby Logan International Airport. 'I’m not rich like a Donald Trump.'"
"Brandon McCall had to put his student loans in forbearance and cut back on groceries and other expenses after his condo tenant in Los Angeles fell behind on the $2,050-a-month rent. Now he’s pinning his hopes on the government. The tenant applied for rental assistance in early April, shortly after the city’s relief program began. But as of late last week, there was no answer. 'I lose money every month,' McCall said. 'And I can’t even buy a place to live in myself.'"
From Boston Agent Magazine in Massachusetts. "Boston condo sales jumped to their highest first-quarter total in 16 years, according to a recent Douglas Elliman Downtown Boston market report. The average square foot of a sale declined for the fourth straight quarter to 1,132 square feet, 9.1% below the same period last year. The median sales price fell 16.6% below last year’s record of $1.01 million, the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. Listing inventory rose 44.9% year over year."
The Real Deal. "Churchill Real Estate is known in New York City for betting on distress. Over the past few years, the firm has snapped up troubled loans from overeager or desperate developers that have ended up in hot water. But the firm is increasingly targeting a more secure product: single-family home loans. And recently, it took a big step in that direction thanks to a direct equity investment from Redwood Trust, a publicly traded REIT that focuses on lending in that sector."
"Churchill co-founder Sorabh Maheshwari declined to disclose the amount of the investment. But he said the deal will provide the firm with the funds it needs to expand into new markets such as South Florida, California and possibly Texas. Churchill execs said they are seeing opportunities in 'rescue financing' for nearly completed projects through a preferred equity injection in order to get the development over the finish line."
"'Pretty much every sector in the New York City market is in distress, so the opportunities have been plentiful,' co-founder Justin Ehrlich said in a recent interview with The Real Deal."
From Bisnow New York. "After years of sliding valuations and multiple auctions, the Gallivant Times Square Hotel has sold for a fraction of its previous value. Special servicer LNR Partners sold the ground lease of the 334-room hotel at 234 West 48th St. to an LLC controlled by Mehran Kohansieh for $4M. CMBS tracking firm Trepp's remittance data suggests the liquidation proceeds for LNR were $2.5M. That sum 'was completely eaten away by expenses,' Trepp wrote in a report Tuesday, which noted the hotel was appraised at $126M at securitization in 2006."
"'Due to the continued underperformance of this property and current environment for hotels, Moody’s expects a significant loss from this loan,' Moody's analysts wrote last month when the hotel was under contract."
From Yahoo UK Finance. "Rooms for rent in west London were among areas that dragged down the average rental price in the UK in the first quarter of 2021. The London postcodes where room rents have reduced the most include SW1 (Westminster/Belgravia/Pimlico) -25%, W1 (West End/Soho) -23% and W8 (Holland Park) -21%. SpareRoom's index found that out of the UK’s 50 largest towns and cities, London has experienced the biggest drop in demand v supply, down 23% year-on-year. In particular, east-central London has suffered the sharpest fall, down by almost half (-42%), followed by the South East (-40%) and West Central London (-40%)."
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. "Tim Lawless, research director at CoreLogic, says additional listings are coming onto the market as sellers seek to take advantage of rising prices. There has also been a significant rise in housing construction activity. Larger cities are still showing a unit 'supply overhang,' he says. That is occurring at a time when demand from population growth has recently turned negative, which could progressively create an imbalance between demand and supply, he says. 'There are early signs the exuberance in the housing market may be peaking,' Lawless says."
From Newshub New Zealand. "An investment expert has warned the property market is starting to look 'shakier' than it has been, with the 'ghost of Muldoon' waiting to pop the bubble. 'At a recent event in Auckland, I remonstrated that house prices could slide,' editor of financial site Wealth Morning, Simon Angelo, wrote. It may not seem possible, but it is. You could have felt the perspiration dampen the room… the mood began to darken.'"
"Angelo says the Kiwi property market right now is remarkably similar to how it was in the early 1970s, huge gains 'based on high net migration and shortages of builders and materials.' House prices spiked about 75 percent between 1971 and 1974 before ending the decade pretty much where they started, Angelo said. Sir Robert Muldoon's government, elected in 1975, oversaw a massive slide in values. 'Muldoon's government became alarmed then, as [Jacinda] Ardern's one seems to be now. Planning controls were loosened to allow more flats to be built in cities.'"
"There are also similarities with New York in the 1920s, he said, with an economic boom fuelled by low interest rates and money printing following a pandemic. 'Then came the unravelling.'"
"Angelo doesn't see us building too many homes. 'The more likely source of risk here comes down to leverage. As it so often does,' he wrote. 'It would appear the most significant risk to New Zealand property is the re-pricing or restricting of lending. Interest deductibility rules have already re-priced loans to property investors. But the greater risk is the introduction of [debt-to-income ratios] and inflation,' and interest rates ending their record-low run."
"'I do not see New Zealand out-building its supply gap any time soon. But I do see a lot more activity than before coupled with a twisted greed and fear gap, a debt bomb, and growing regulation. In this regard, the ghost of Muldoon could well come to sit in auction rooms across Auckland. Especially for investor-focused residential properties.'"
"Finance Minister Grant Robertson has asked the Reserve Bank to look into debt-to-income lending restrictions to stop investors getting extremely leveraged."
The New York Post. "Is this the creepiest place on Earth? Hundreds of Disney-like castles built for wealthy Gulf investors are now sitting empty. Located in Turkey, the abandoned village first began construction in 2014, and was initially designed as a luxury community for foreign buyers. But hit by a devastating economic downturn in Turkey, the once-grand plan crumbled, leaving the mini chateaus hollow."
"Buyers snapped up more than 350 of the houses, which are priced between $370,000 and $500,000, depending on location, Sarot Group’s CEO, Mezher Yerdelen told the Times. Of the more than 732 villas, about 350 were sold to Arab investors. By 2018, half the buildings were underway until Turkey’s economy took a major hit and many of the sales fell through. 'Our sales dried up,' Mezher Yerdelen added. Some customers canceled their agreements, some stopped their payments."
"Today, the village remains idle, with no plumbing, heating or any sign of human life."