Is It Simply Madness And This Is Another Real Estate Bubble?
A weekend topic starting with the Orlando Sentinel in Florida. "Foster Algier, a real estate agent and owner of First Alliance Capital in Orlando, points to low-interest rates as one of the main drivers of the housing shortage, with 30-year mortgage rates falling to less than 3% last year. 'When money gets cheap, home prices go up,' he said. Algier also pointed to a glut of buyers and investors as reducing options. 'We’re paying more because we’re competing against buyers who will buy anything,' he said."
"'We have investors calling us nonstop,' said Tammy Kerr of Sand Dollar Realty Group.Kerr, who has worked in Orlando real estate for 20 years, said one advantage to the current market: flippers don’t have to do much work fixing up houses they sell. 'People are buying up anything, they don’t care,' she said. 'They’ll do the work for you.'"
From KTNV in Nevada. "According to Zillow, the denial rate in Nevada for Hispanic applicants was 12% in 2017, compared to 9% for all applicants. 'Some people are putting 15 to 20 thousand over the listing price, they're waiving the appraisal contingency, mean that if the house doesn’t appraise, they don't care, they're going to pay more for that and then there are some sellers that don't want to do repairs,' said Kely Rojas, a real estate agent."
"Alex Vazquez, her real estate agent, said that more Latinos are now becoming homeowners, a trend that he has observed during the last 5 years, and that it’s important to have a lender and a real estate agent to help you with the process. 'And let you know of how much of a home you qualify for, what the bank will loan you to purchase that home. The lender will also guide you on what programs are available in order for you to qualify for that home or either reduce the interest rate or get some money out of pocket to help cover your closing costs and in many cases you down payment as well,' expressed Vazquez."
From Bizwest on Colorado. "The sales-price-to-list-price ratio for single-family homes in Boulder County is above 100%. Indeed, in each of our weekly sales meetings, we hear agents describe a veritable frenzy of buyers offering often between 20% and 30% above asking price for 'average' homes in our market and making breathtaking concessions to sellers (e.g., completely waiving their right to conduct an inspection, agreeing to cover any appraisal gap, etc.). I have heard of buyers offering $350,000 over a home’s asking price, waiving every conceivable contract right, and still not getting the house."
"And so, it is fair to ask whether our current market is like Shakespeare’s Hamlet: 'Though this be madness, yet there is method in’t,' or is it simply madness and this is another real estate bubble?"
"Third — and most importantly — home values in our area will continue to be supported by the fact that, under current zoning regulations, we are nearly out of land upon which to build. As a matter of basic economics, when the supply of a desired good becomes scarce, its value increases. According to Freddie Mac, in terms of housing, Colorado is the second most undersupplied state in the country, and Boulder County is the epicenter of that lack of supply."
From Summit Daily in Colorado. "After a yearlong delay due to COVID-19, Economic & Planning Systems representatives David Schwartz and Rachel Shindman showcased the data, which highlighted the region’s current housing needs.
A look at Summit’s housing supply. In general, Shindman said 70% of the county’s housing supply is vacant homes and 30% is occupied housing. From 2010 to 2018, which was the most recent data available when the study was commissioned, Shindman said these percentages were exacerbated because long-term housing was not added to the market."
From ABC News. "If the rate of Australian home price rises is bringing a tear to your eye, you are unlikely to find much sympathy from South Koreans trying to buy in their country's capital. Seoul's property market is on a tear. Apartment prices in the metropolis of nearly 10 million people rose by an extraordinary 22 per cent in 2020, outstripping all other cities in Asia."
"Seoul residents Park Jong-hui and Oh Hye-jin kept being outbid for every place they were interested in. After months of disappointment, they have finally managed to secure a place. But it is much further from Seoul's centre than they would have liked. In the traffic-plagued city, it means a long commute. 'It will now take one hour and a half to go to work, which is disappointing, said Jong-hui."
"The Parks are relieved they have managed to secure their own place, even if it comes with a massive mortgage. 'The reason why we decided to buy a house now is because we think house prices will just keep going up.'"
"Koreans only need to look across the East Sea to see the danger of unsustainable property price rises. Japan experienced one of the greatest property bubbles and crashes in recorded history. After World War II, the value of Japanese real estate skyrocketed, with a particularly frenzied period during the 1980s. Investors ploughed cash into the market, seemingly thinking prices would just keep rising."
"Infamously, at the property market's peak, all the land in Japan — which is roughly the size of California — was worth four times the value of all the land in the United States. Then the crash came. Prices plummeted. Japanese home owners saw their properties lose 70 per cent of their value between the peak in 1991 and 2001."
From The Tyee in Canada. "Patrick Condon’s new book ties public health to the price of land. Condon starts with the fact that the value of urban real estate has become detached from local incomes, because as global elites acquire and concentrate wealth, they seek places to park it. Condos are the new stocks and bonds and Krugerrands, and that gives all the more impetus to a species well known in these parts — the land speculator."
"In the face of such forces, merely relying on the market to solve housing unaffordability is pointless, argues Condon, because as soon as land is upzoned for densification its value rises, those costs jacking up the price of units. Condon: 'The housing issue in California is the same one as we have here: out-of-control land price inflation. Although ours is worse, because our salaries are much lower on average making it much harder for people making average incomes to afford homes. Urban land prices have shot up between 200 and 500 per cent in most parts of the Bay Area in just the past seven years. This is reflected, naturally enough, in higher home prices statewide.'"
"'The California legislature, in an attempt to reduce home prices, is considering a law, SB9, that would overrule city zoning laws statewide, allowing much higher density everywhere in the state. YIMBY ('Yes in my backyard') advocates and the big tech companies are all for it, arguing that opening up low-density areas for higher density will lead to lower prices. They reason that homes cost too much is because too few are getting built. That is, if you add enough supply to satisfy demand it will lead to lower prices.'"
"'I and many others are arguing that the evidence does not support this. Certainly here in Vancouver we have seen no evidence of this. We have added enough housing in the downtown for 40,000 new residents, prices go up. We have added thousands of units along our arterial streets, prices go up. We have legalized secondary suites citywide, prices go up. We have legalized lane houses, prices go up. We have allowed four dwelling units on every so-called single-family lot in the city, prices still go up. We have added more housing units than population over the past 10 years and prices have doubled. Over 20 per cent just this year.'"
From Mansion Global on California. "It could only happen in Los Angeles: Celebrity plastic surgeons are getting into the megamansion-building business. The latest entrant to the market is Alex Khadavi, a 48-year-old dermatologist. With the market heating up in the early 2010s, many wealthy people with well-positioned parcels of land began building properties geared toward foreign buyers and billionaires, says Stephen Shapiro of Westside Estate Agency, who is not involved in the home. Suddenly, everyone was a developer, including those with limited or no real-estate experience. That boom resulted in an oversupply of spec homes."
"The rush of new contemporary spec homes built in the Los Angeles area has put downward pressure on prices. Dr. Kanodia recently slashed the asking price of his home to $99 million from $180 million. Developers like Nile Niami, known widely as the king of Los Angeles spec homes, handed the keys over to his lenders on at least one project and is facing default on others."
"The spiraling costs of Dr. Khadavi’s project also had consequences. While he initially thought he might live in the property, Dr. Khadavi says he is now selling it largely because he can’t afford to keep it. It’s also too large for him, his girlfriend and his goldendoodle Cheetos. 'I don’t have a large family, and I don’t have the financial capability to enjoy the house,' he says. 'I borrowed a lot of money to get it to this level, and I can’t afford living in it.'"