What Changed, Predictably, Was Everything, But Not All At Once
A weekend topic starting with the Los Angeles Times. "The textbooks say that the securities markets exist to facilitate raising capital so that companies can thrive. In today’s investment world, that notion seems almost quaint. Business news pages and cable shows are dominated by fads — be it bitcoin, dogecoin or nonfungible tokens (NFTs) — and stocks whose prices are not tied to sober reflections about their issuers’ prospects but rocket up and down based on internet-fueled speculation."
"Have we reached peak absurdity in the financial markets? 'There are so many bubbles out there that I can’t even write about them all,' says Susan Webber, an investment advisor. 'They’re so loony.'"
"Land has generally been viewed as the most solid investment one can make, but the housing crash that began in 2006 and provoked the Great Recession showed that bubbles can occur in any asset, causing mayhem when they’re popped. Banks have often been regarded as gilt-edged investments, but recurrent banking crises, including those of the early 1930s and 2008, demonstrate that their potential to make imprudent, overleveraged bets can show their intrinsic values to be mythical."
"Some features of today’s investment landscape are historically unusual, if not necessarily unique. One is a long period of easy money fostered by the Federal Reserve’s policy of keeping interest rates low. That makes investments not tied to interest rates relatively more valuable."
"'Looking back at this period in a decade,' says Frank Partnoy, a business and financial law expert at UC Berkeley law school and author of several books on investment fiascos of the past. 'we’ll say there was a lot of mania, but we might be surprised at what turned out to be valuable, and what didn’t.'"
From CNN Business. "'In 38 years of buying and selling homes I haven’t witnessed a market like it,' commented Henry Pryor, a UK buying agent. 'There have been stories of buyers paying £10,000 plus just to be able to view a property.' With inventory levels in the United Kingdom some 30 per cent below the norm, people are 'panic-buying properties,' Pryor added. 'Twelve months ago, people were panic buying toilet paper for fear they might run out. That’s very much the sensation we have today (in the housing market),' he said."
The Islington Tribune in the UK. "Islington Council seems determined to press ahead with plans for the proposed Vorley Road development despite the depressed property market for new one- and two-bedroom build flats. Cllr Diarmaid Ward claims Islington needs to build and sell private flats in the new development to pay for the new council properties but seems to be ignoring the evidence of falling demand across the capital, including Archway."
"There is already a glut of one- and two-bedroom flats on the market in central London as many young professionals gravitate out of the city in the fall-out of the pandemic. You only have to look next door to the proposed development for evidence of this demographic shift. The Land Registry reveals only 34 of the 140 flats in Hillhouse have sold since the new development came on to the market in 2018. Clearly it makes no financial sense to build more of the same literally next door."
From ABC News in Australia. "Real estate agents say 'absolutely crazy' demand is behind 20 Perth suburbs' median house prices growing by over 10 per cent in the first third of this year. Data released by the Real Estate Institute of WA revealed prices in the riverside suburb of Bicton had grown 20 per cent since December, going from $950,000 to $1.14 million — the biggest increase in the metropolitan area."
"Lauren Mandolene is also a real estate agent in the area, and said demand had been 'crazy.' 'We can't really quantify what has caused all of a sudden everyone to come out,' she said. 'We even asked people when we are at home opens and most people just said they felt like it was the right time. A lot of people are saying they want to purchase now before it really booms, and they don't want to overpay for property.'"
From Bloomberg. "Canadians are so alarmed by the red-hot housing market that many say they’d like to see the central bank raise the cost of borrowing to dampen demand for real estate and stabilize prices. About 70% of Canadians responding to a new Nanos Research poll conducted for Bloomberg News said the sharp increase in home prices was a major problem for the economy. Almost half were at least somewhat in favor of the Bank of Canada raising its overnight rate to slow the rise, even though such a move would also increase the cost of credit lines, credit cards and other debt."
"The numbers underscore how soaring housing costs have emerged as a major issue in the public consciousness after a year in which prices jumped by 30% or more in some regions. Economists at major banks have called on the government to act to reduce demand. At the same time, the Bank of Canada has made it clear it won’t raise rates until the economy absorbs its excess capacity — a milestone projected for 2022 at the earliest."
"'I own a place, but I also have a son too. When I think about my son, it’s like, how is he going to survive in this world?' said Raymond Wong, a Vancouver engineer who filed a petition with Canada’s parliament saying the central bank should consider house prices when setting interest rates. 'He can do everything right, do everything by the book, get an education, but at the end of the day he won’t be able to afford anything.'"
"'I think it’s pretty clear to most people that housing in this country is all but out of control,' said Benjamin Reitzes, a Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets. 'While it’s nice to have an appreciating asset, it makes moving to the next home that much more expensive. In addition, for those with kids, it makes you wonder how they’ll be able to afford a home if this continues.'"
From Jezebel. "The Real Housewives of Orange County wasn’t supposed to end up as it did. It was supposed to be a quaint little docu-series called Behind the Gates, which creator Scott Dunlop pitched to networks as a look into the dinner-party conversations he’d had with rich 'housewives' in the affluent Orange County gated suburb of Coto De Caza, dubbed 'Coto' by its residents."
"The vacuous cast members of that first season of The Real Housewives of Orange County were primarily concerned with the sort of cars their neighbors recently leased and whether their nemesis in the school pick-up line had a real Rolex or a fake. But the devastating recession in 2008 collapsed that universe and transformed the franchise into the juggernaut it is today. The show ultimately became less about simply having wealth, but the cutthroat and increasingly dramatic pursuit of it—the glitz and the grift that defines our era."
"What changed, predictably, was everything, but not all at once. Two years after the show premiered, a recession devastated California and the rest of the country—most visibly in the suburbs, where a subprime lending crisis left many in foreclosure and exploded major banking institutions after almost a decade of preying on homeowners with faulty loans and mortgages. In turn, the country’s taste also changed."
"In response to the crisis, the women’s approach to their class status altered completely. Some hid their new financial predicaments from each other and the cameras. Famously, Lynne Curtin’s Season 5 eviction notice amid the recession was a recognizable (yet shocking) experience. Producers who had likely been setting up for filming that day caught the eviction process server as he walked up her sprawling driveway and to her front door."
"Her daughter opens the door and he asks, 'Is your mom or dad home?' She disappears and then re-appears, and he hands her the slip again. 'I’m here to serve an eviction notice, you’ve been served, your mom and dad have been served, thank you very much.' He leaves, the door closes, and you can hear her children say: 'Is this for real?'"
"The Real Housewives of Atlanta and The Real Housewives of New York also premiered in 2008, and while their first seasons would hew somewhat close to their progenitor in the OC, the broader culture was changing and the franchise with it. These monumental shifts from an unassuming docu-series to television juggernaut are felt in RHONY cast member Sonja Morgan’s own seasons-long financial ruin after her divorce from immensely wealthy banking heir John Adams Morgan; and in Teresa Giudice’s imprisonment alongside ex-husband Joe, who was later deported, after they were indicted in 2013 for conspiracy to commit bank fraud, bankruptcy fraud, mail and wire fraud, and making false statements on loan applications."