What Makes It A Bubble Is These Crazy Outliers Are Becoming The Norm
A weekend topic starting with the Powell Tribune in Wyoming. "By the summer, the market was heating up — and it never slowed down. Today, the housing inventory in Powell is at lower levels than anyone can remember. John Parsons, co-owner of 307 Real Estate said the strain on housing inventory is across their northern Wyoming markets. While the dollar has lost some value, interest rates remain low and so buying power is high."
From Alaska Public Media. "It’s a seller’s market: Homes are going fast and at high prices. Alaska’s housing market doesn’t have the makings of a bubble right now, says State Labor Department Economist Neal Fried, and he’s not expecting a crash. 'That doesn’t mean the value of homes couldn’t go down,' said Fried. 'I’m not going to try to even guess that. And that sales might go down. But it’s not going to be — we just are not in the environment, sort of the bubbly environment, or sort of the potential boom/bust environment.'"
The Hays Free Press in Texas. "Yes, buying a new home in Central Texas feels like winning the lottery. In some ways it is likened to the 2007 pre-recession market, said Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz, a real estate research economist at Texas A&M University. The only difference is that the bubble burst and tighter mortgage loan regulations took place; this time around, Ruiz does not foresee the bubble bursting."
"In February and March, it was common for a home in Austin and Hays County to receive more than 20 offers, but things are slowing down a little, said Elle-Klein Garrison, a Realty Austin realtor. The pendulum is bound to swing in the other direction, but it could take some time, Garrison said. 'It’s hard to say when the pendulum will swing, but it will happen,' Garrison told the Hays Free Press/News-Dispatch.' Prices will not come down, but the market will balance out… The main thing to remember in this market is it takes resilience, stamina and a creative and skilled agent.'"
The Los Angeles Times in California. "Truckee, a town on the lake’s north shore, was a perfect choice. Ben Jarso started making offers on properties. Again and again he lost out. Turns out too many other people had the same idea. He finally got a house, but it took quick action. He contacted the seller as soon as the four-bedroom home popped up on his real estate app, made the first offer and agreed to no inspection requirements. His new $900,000 home has a large pine deck and two fireplaces and boasts views of Donner Lake. 'I think it was a steal,' said Jarso."
"In Truckee, the deluge of remote workers is hard to miss in the town of 16,000. Along the blocks of quaint art galleries and clothing boutiques in the center of town, a Realtor’s storefront window advertisement highlights the real estate boom: Homes in some neighborhoods have spiked 146% and are selling 63% faster than last year."
From Palm Springs Life in California. "For this year, Mike McDonald of the real estate research firm Market Watch LLC expects home prices to hold steady. 'Even with the eventual surge in new listings,' he says, 'there are no signs yet of a housing bubble.'"
"Walter Neil of Franklin Loan Center emphasized that now is a good time to buy, despite the rising prices. 'Interest rates will remain very favorable,' he says, explaining buyers can still get a cheap mortgage, 'and so is affordability when you think of [the purchase] as an investment. The high demand and tight supply point to 6 percent appreciation in 2021. So, yeah, you might pay over the list price, but based on the appreciation forecast, look at your value four or five years from now.'"
From Palo Alto Online in California. "Michael Repka is CEO of DeLeon Realty. Q: Have you seen a turning point where you feel like the industry is either heading back to normal or moving farther away from the old normal? A: The overall market has definitely improved this Spring, however, there are an inordinate number of homes that will be coming on the market over the next few months. This may create a situation of over supply."
From Business in Vancouver in Canada. "Local buyers, including a hefty portion of investors, have sparked a presale condominium sales boom in the Metro Vancouver suburbs, with a string of new projects still under construction selling out hundreds of units within hours. 'A light switch came on' in the past few weeks, said Jeremy Towning, vice-president of SwissReal Group. 'Someone would buy and then the whole family would buy.'"
"Developers make no bones about targeting local investors. Many condo developers allow rental units in their projects and nearly all will allow investors to sell assignments – where the condo is flipped to another buyer before it completes – for a modest percentage on the 'lift' in value, sometimes, as with SwissReal, as low as 1%, or a flat fee that can be as low as $500."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "Economists usually define a market bubble as a sudden rise in price based on obviously implausible or contradictory beliefs. A bubble, in other words, is doomed to collapse under the weight of its own irrationality. By that standard, Canada’s real estate market looks less bubble-like than exuberant. One good reason to bet against any housing collapse is the attitude of key decision makers. Political leaders and central bankers have been cheering on the recent gains. It seems unlikely the powers-that-be would deliberately inflate home prices only to stand back and watch them topple."
"This is true not just in Canada but in advanced economies around the world. From Australia to Britain, governments and central banks are attempting to stimulate their plague-stricken economies by doing everything they can to encourage home buying. Rather than taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going, decision makers in many countries have been spiking the policy brew with as much happy juice as possible. Thanks to low interest rates and other stimulus measures, home prices are soaring at double-digit paces in the U.S., New Zealand and Australia."
"'When you hear the Bank of Canada promising rates will stay low for a very long time and politicians like Adam Vaughan promising to do everything possible to prevent a price decline, you can see why some people decide it really doesn’t matter what they pay for a home because it will just keep going up,' says John Pasalis, an economics researcher and president of Realosophy Realty, a Toronto real estate broker."
"He argues the past few months have seen the market lurch into a new and disturbing phase, in which desperate buyers are paying far more than asking prices. 'It’s not all irrational what is happening,' he says. 'But the irrational component, what makes it a bubble … is that these crazy outliers are becoming the norm. Everyone is feeling they need to spend $30,000, $40,000 or $50,000 more than what comparable homes sold for three or four weeks ago just to get into the market.'"
From Stuff New Zealand. "If you want to get on the property ladder, have you missed the boat? We’ve seen extraordinary home sales in real estate markets around the country in recent months. March sales were at a 14-year high, according to REINZ (Real Estate Institute of New Zealand). The country saw median prices of residential property increase by 24.3 per cent across the country to $826,300 in the month too."
"Independent economist Tony Alexander said that the sense of ‘FOMO’ (fear of missing out) recently seen among buyers is starting to fade. In his most recent survey of real estate agents, 66 per cent said there was still a sense of FOMO, compared with 88 per cent in March. He thinks this will reduce even further. A net 23 per cent of agents were seeing fewer people at open homes and a net 41 per cent of agents were seeing fewer investors."
"'I don’t think people need to rush,' Alexander said. 'If you’re looking to buy, see how many [investors] do pull out of the market and how many vendors come forward because they don’t want to wait any longer. An environment where time is on the side of the buyers is not there yet, but it is coming.'"
"Vendors who have been holding off and waiting for the best price may start to put their properties up for sale while the market is on a high. Already, there are more properties on the market than is normal for this time of year. Tommy's Real Estate's Nicki Cruickshank said the number of homes the agent has on the market is more reflective of a usual January or February, rather than an autumn April."
"Sellers are now experiencing their own version of FOMO, said Cruickshank. 'What we’ve noticed in the last two or three weeks is people starting to make predictions… So people are putting their house on the market now, and stock levels are higher than normal. I do think there are a few people thinking it’s time to sell, in case they miss out on the great prices. But there’s still strong demand, I would say that,' she said."
"You can talk about prices and trends until you’re blue in the face, but if you are buying your own home, rather than an investment, it might not really matter all that much. 'The best time to buy is when you’re ready,” said Cruickshank. 'Everyone thinks they’ve paid too much when they buy and then a couple of years later [when prices rise] thinks, thank goodness….'"