It Is A Mistake To Bank On The Alchemy Because There Are No Guarantees
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "In an interview, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan mentioned mortgage purchases, which he believes contributed to rising home prices, 'these purchases have unintended consequences and side effects.' In an interview with CNBC on June 18, James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said: 'According to some, it threatens the housing bubble here.'"
From Realtor.com. "Although asking prices for U.S. homes continue to rise, there are signs that the red-hot housing market has passed its peak, according to a report Thursday from Realtor.com. 'Buyers should still expect to act quickly on their desired homes, but we are seeing signs that the peak of the frenzy may soon be behind us,' the report said."
The Daily Colorado News. "Metro Denver’s housing market has been changing in recent weeks, much like a cold front ending record heat, and could provide significant relief for buyers if this continues, local real estate agents say. 'The market has started moving in the past two to three weeks and has been very noticeable for most brokers within the past seven days,' said Bret Weinstein, CEO of BSW Real Estate in Denver. 'There is absolutely a market shift going on.'"
"Weinstein said the larger market seems unaware of the shift that has occurred, as the three offers a home could have on average are as strong as the 15-20 generated earlier this year. Frightened buyers, out of habit or desperation, continue to unnecessarily offer house prices against phantom competitors. 'Right now, we’re seeing the best offer win around $ 20,000 to $ 30,000 assuming there are other offers at that higher price when in reality they don’t,' Weinstein said. '… the shift is on. For those sellers who think the market will keep rising forever, this is not the case.'"
From Austonia on Texas. "The median home price in the city of Austin hit an all-time high of $566,500 in May, rising more than $142,450 year-over-year, according to the Austin Board of Realtors. And prices across the five-county Austin metro are rising at an even faster rate. But there is room for hope. Local realtors report a small shift in the market in recent weeks. 'Don't give up,' said Alex Gilmore, an agent at Paul Presley Realty. 'Austin's only going to get more expensive.'"
"Chris More, 44, and his wife recently purchased a new construction house in Pflugerville after a months-long search that included multiple rejections. The couple moved from California to Round Rock in 2017. Last year, when the market was hot but not scorching, they started looking for a new home with more privacy and a pool. 'We were like, 'We can still catch that wave,' he said."
"Using a VA home loan, the couple soon made their first offer: $75,000 over asking price on a home in the $600,000 range. They were immediately rejected but not discouraged. The couple eventually made five more offers, one as much as $220,00 above the list price, but found sellers were only interested in cash. Discouraged by the resale market, they looked into new construction and found a builder who had three properties available on a first-come, first-served basis. Unbeknownst to them, they were first in line and able to purchase a home using the VA loan for under $800,000. Although higher than their initial budget of $550,000, More said, 'I just got completely lucky.'"
"Ashley Jackson, a Realty Austin agent, recently worked with a buyer who offered $50,000 above the list price for a South Austin home in the 78704 ZIP code. She later learned the seller had received multiple offers $200,000 above the list price. But her client now has a home under contract after she called the listing agent to ask for the real price—not the one listed but the one the seller would accept. 'You have to walk the line between the brutal reality of our market … and the excitement of buying a home,' she said."
The Toronto Sun in Canada. "For the majority of my decade in real estate, it has seemed that all one needs to do to sell a house in this town is stick a sign on the lawn and wait for a herd of crazed buyers to appear. The problem, however, is that the market, while still hot, has cooled since its peak in March. New listings are down, sales are down. The number of showings has slowed, and so too have the number of offers registered, an important metric to capture buyer behaviour."
"And it makes sense — at some point something had to give. Significantly, prices have now taken affordability to its upper limits. Buyers can only stretch so far, and between the June 1st increase to the mortgage stress test and an interest rate hike all but guaranteed, people need to keep a level head."
"And from where I sit, having been busier than ever throughout this pandemic, the biggest challenge I am facing right now is, for once, not having to coach and emotionally support my buyer clients through rollercoasters of bidding wars and unsuccessful offers. No, shockingly, the hardest part of my job right now is navigating seller expectations."
"And almost always, the number in the prospective client’s head is based on the outlier. The house that sold down the street on day one with an offer 40% above-list. The dilapidated shack that didn’t even have photographs attached to the listing yet sold for $1M. What they feel it should be worth."
"It’s hard to convince sellers that, feelings aside, there’s still method to this madness. That banks must still appraise properties before funding the mortgages. That even in this wild time, a property’s valuation will land somewhere within a range (the science, if you will) and anything above that is based on the value a particular buyer ascribes to it and the opportunity it represents (the alchemy)."
"It is a mistake to bank on the alchemy because there are no guarantees. Especially now that things have tempered somewhat. It’s easy to get a listing if you promise the sun, moon and stars. It’s entirely another to deliver it. And that is why we are now seeing so many listings fall flat."
From Vice Magazine. "Three months ago, most cryptocurrency investors were chatting about Lambos, trips to the moon and the insane 'gains' they were making, thanks to prices soaring to all-time-highs. But – as anyone with a family member, partner or friend who’s invested in crypto will be all too aware of – that situation has changed over the last month, with prices falling with nerve-wracking, incessant-phone-checking speed this week."
"For the crypto-bros and gals who threw their savings and 'stimmy' cheques into cryptocurrency this spring, it’s been a brutal few weeks. One guy, chatting to CNN, said he lost over $167,000 in one day. And then there’s the great reset: the past year’s rapid rise in price meant a turnaround would always be inevitable."
"Fear levels ultimately depend on when and how much you invested. 'It always depends where you’re measuring from,' says Mati Greenspan, a crypto analyst. 'If you’re measuring from the high, then yeah – this is pretty brutal. But anyone who’s been in the market for more than a few months should be in profit at this point. There’s never any reason to panic, as long as you’ve investing responsibly. There’s the disclaimer: never invest more than you can afford to lose.'"
From ABC News. "Bitcoin is not money — it is a speculative asset that can be used by organised crime to launder money and launch ransomware attacks, the world's top organisation of central banks says. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has released a scathing assessment of cryptocurrencies, saying their growing popularity is posing a problem for the world's financial system."
"The BIS said other developments were contributing to the changing monetary landscape. It singled out 'stablecoins' and the entry of large technology firms (big techs) into payment services and financial services. It warned stablecoins — which are supposedly pegged to a national currency, such as the US dollar, to reduce volatility — come with their own problems."
"'Stablecoins attempt to import credibility by being backed by real currencies. As such, these are only as good as the governance behind the promise of the backing,' the report said. 'They also have the potential to fragment the liquidity of the monetary system and detract from the role of money as a coordination device.'"
The Globe and Mail. "Markets threw a mini-tantrum after the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested last week that it was thinking about thinking about raising interest rates – not immediately, mind you, but maybe in a year or two. Commentators rushed to describe the Fed’s shift as a hawkish turn, but it was more an acknowledgement of the obvious. The world’s most powerful central bank was effectively saying that rates cannot stay at rock bottom levels forever, especially if inflation proves to be more persistent than originally thought."
"One way to think of this is as a three-act play. The first act was the great panic that erupted when the pandemic hit just over a year ago. That was followed by the great euphoria of the second act, as policy makers rushed to keep their economies afloat on oceans of new spending and assurances of near-zero interest rates as far as the eye could see."
"Central bankers suddenly got woke. Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, and Jerome Powell, chair of the Fed, started talking about social goals like reducing inequality and building inclusive economies. For folks who normally discuss yield curves and similarly dry topics, the shift in attitude seemed revolutionary. It suggested the authorities were prepared to live with persistently higher inflation so long as it helped advance broader social goals."
"Now comes the third act: a great sobering up. Central banks must attempt to, ever so gently, take away some of the extraordinary stimulus they delivered in the second stage and remind people that, while the social stuff matters, they haven’t forgotten their more traditional roles as inflation fighters. Nineteen central banks around the world have raised interest rates so far this year, according to Bank of America. In Canada and the U.S., decision makers have yet to move, but are striving to prepare markets for what is to come."
"The great unknown in all of this is how today’s suddenly woke central bankers will react if the current outburst of inflation persists. After the Great Financial Crisis, critics lambasted central banks for prematurely hiking rates before benefits of the postcrisis recovery could ripple through to lower paid workers. Policy makers appear determined to give today’s recovery more room to run. So long as they maintain that attitude, they are likely to move cautiously in reining in today’s exuberance."