There's Going To Be A Lot Of Owners Holding The Bag On This Thing
A report from Mansion Global. "Prices have soared as demand significantly outclips supply. But amid all the excitement, more contracts are also falling through, and many prospective buyers are placing offers sight-unseen, only to back out later. 'There is a much higher fallout rate because people work themselves into a frenzy, they win and then they regret it,' said Park City, Utah-based agent Ryan Dickey."
From Bisnow New York. "The supertall at 111 West 57th St. was started in 2014, when buyers were falling over each other to snap up luxury apartments. Now, the building is about three years past its original scheduled completion date, still not finished and facing a market that is a world away from when the ambitious project was first planned. Even before the crisis, the building had fended off foreclosure proceedings, had been hit with lawsuits and rose out of the ground as luxury inventory ballooned."
"Right now, it would take seven years to sell all the new development condos in Manhattan, per data from appraisal firm Miller Samuel, which analyzes active and shadow inventory in the market. That number is down from a 2020 peak of 8.7 years. 'People want to negotiate over price, but that's just because everyone who's that wealthy wants a discount all the time,' said David Juracich, who said he is a partner on the building."
From Inside Nova. "'Virginia’s housing market continued to be very busy in May, although there may be signs of an approaching cooling,' said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Virginia Realtors. Inventory remains tight in many areas, 'though in some markets, the number of active listings is rising, providing more options for buyers,' Sturtevant said."
"While still rock-bottom, inventory has been increasing for the past three months, after years of nearly continuous month-to-month declines. Year-over-year inventory was up in many areas of Northern Virginia, but that largely was due to availability of condominiums."
From Bloomberg. "Texas Student Housing Authority filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy protection, listing between $10 million and $50 million of liabilities. The non-profit, state chartered corporation had assets of $1 million to $10 million, and as many as 199 creditors, according to a June 18 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Texas. The Southlake, Texas-based organization was established in 1995 to purchase and manage student housing facilities located near the campuses of major colleges and universities, according to its website. It owns housing properties near the University of North Texas in Denton and Texas A&M University in College Station. Both projects offer premium facilities, equipped with resort-style swimming pools and fitness centers."
"'Both schools have had troubled muni-financed private student housing projects for years,' said Matt Fabian, a partner at Municipal Market Analytics."
From Spectrum News. "Apartment associations and landlords across Southern California are pessimistic about Gov. Gavin Newsom's plans to forgive all past-due rents from tenants financially impacted by the coronavirus pandemic and are bracing for an extension of the state's eviction moratorium. 'This is just prolonging the agony for a lot of people,' said Dan Yukelson, the executive director of the Apartment Association of Greater Los Angeles, which represents more than 10,000 members."
"'The [new program] would only help low-income tenants,' Yukelson said. 'There's still going to be a lot of owners holding the bag on this thing.'"
The Mercury News in California. "A lender is poised to seize a Los Altos site where a high-profile residential development of nearly 200 homes was being planned, public records show. As now envisioned, the project would have added 196 residential units to the community, but it’s now unclear when — or if — the project will be built. The residential project’s future turned fuzzy after the lender, Loancore Capital Credit REIT, filed a notice of default on March 18 that warned the property could be taken by the lender."
"Now, the lender has scheduled a public auction of the site, documents filed on June 21 with the Santa Clara County Recorder’s Office show. The auction is due to occur in late July, according to the filing. The property, located at 5150 El Camino Real in Los Altos, is slated to be sold to the 'highest bidder,' the trustee’s sale notice stated. However, with such auctions, if no bidder appears on the spot at the time of the auction, the property often is formally sold to the lender through a trustee’s deed. This procedure then accomplishes the foreclosure of the loan."
The Associated Press. "A Kansas judge is beginning to evict tenants who are behind on rent in advance of the expiration of a federal moratorium that some experts predict will bring a tide of people being forced from homes nationwide. Johnson County Magistrate Judge Daniel Vokins said during a Zoom eviction hearing this week that he doesn't think the moratorium, which was issued last year by the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and expires at the end of the month, is enforceable."
"Karen Nations, who also represented landlords at the hearing, said the moratorium has been difficult. 'Landlords have been struggling to pay their bills, and people have taken advantage of the moratorium,' she said, adding that some who can afford to pay their rent are not. 'It is a very tricky balancing act to get the mortgage paid if you’re not getting your rent.'"
The Examiner. "The scheduled City Council vote next week on whether to approve an apartment complex in Independence’s much-maligned Falls at Crackerneck Creek development area appears to be close either way. Case Development, based in Oklahoma, hopes to build a 285-unit, 23-building complex on Bass Pro Drive, on 13.5 vacant acres south of Mardel and Hobby Lobby and southwest of Bass Pro Shops. The market-rate apartments would be one- and two-bedroom units, with rents ranging from about $1,000 to $1,300, according to city documents, with garages, a clubhouse and pool."
"If approved, the Case project would be the third such apartment complex under construction in southeast Independence. Some council members aren’t sold. 'I think we’re oversaturated with apartments,' Council Member Brice Stewart said. Stewart said his decision 'might be different' if the city didn’t already have two similar apartment complexes deep into construction in the same area of the city."
The Financial Post in Canada. "Activity in the housing market is becoming further detached from fundamentals, two new reports show, reinforcing fears among some housing experts that Canada’s real-estate market has entered a bubble. New York-based Bloomberg, the global news and data firm, last week ranked Canada as one of the bubbliest housing markets on the planet, while closer to home, a former Bank of Canada economist published research that suggests housing in Toronto and Ottawa is overvalued based on historical metrics, while Montreal is becoming increasingly so."
"The heat in those eastern cities, combined with Vancouver’s chronically elevated prices, is making the national numbers frothy, as conditions in Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg look reasonable, according to Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud’s analysis. But since those places are home to 50 per cent of Canada’s population, the Bank of Canada will be forced to raise interest rates extremely carefully because low borrowing costs are the only reason housing is affordable, St-Arnaud said."
"'The housing market will probably be the first casualty of higher rates,' St-Arnaud said. 'When rates go up, that affordability will disappear very, very quickly.'"
"A higher sensitivity to the level of borrowing costs than in the past will force a go-slow approach when the Bank of Canada decides to normalize monetary policy, St-Arnaud said. For that reason, Macklem should act preemptively in lifting rates to avoid having to raise borrowing costs quickly if inflation takes off, the economist said."
"'They need to take that into account …. and be very, very gradual as they can be,' said St-Arnaud. 'A 25-basis-point hike will have more impact than we’ve seen over the past 20, 30 years.'"
From Money Web in South Africa. "Residential vacancy levels in Cape Town soared to 28.8% in the second quarter, new data from TPN shows. This means between one in three and one in four rental units are standing empty. These unprecedented levels have helped push up the province’s (in effect Cape Town and the Winelands) vacancy rate to 14.4%, the first time this has been in double digits. 'Michelle Dickens, CEO of the credit bureau, says 'the Cape Town story is a double whammy of increased supply caused by converting short-term holiday rentals into long-term lets and work-from-home opportunities.'"
"Dickens says 'it’s a tenant’s market, an oversupply of vacant properties is driving down rental prices as tenants are in the position to shop around for a better deal.'"
From Urban Developer in Australia. "Melbourne landlords who relied on the international student market could be out of pocket up to $5000 a year, according to a property investment platform. Juwai IQI group executive chairman Georg Chmiel said the decline in international student numbers due to pandemic-prompted border closures, had been challenging for Melbourne and Sydney markets, with numbers tipped to decline from 500,000 students in April 2020, to 165,000 in July 2022."
"Chmiel said Melbourne’s inner-city had been particularly hard hit. 'Asking prices in the Melbourne city centre are down 8.1 per cent compared to 12 months ago,' he said. 'Rents have plummeted a shocking 20.1 per cent … that works out to nearly $5000 a year in rent.'"
"But the Juwai IQI co-founder said he was advising investors to hold on to the depressed assets until international students returned and values picked up. 'This is a good market for investors who are brave enough to buy while prices are down,' Chmiel said. Chmiel said despite student accommodation operators’ occupancy rates down to an average of 25 per cent, they had 'deep pockets' and a long-term view the market would return."