Investors Lose Money Because They Adopted The Herd Mentality And Bought At The Top
A report from Politico. "House prices are surging, stocks have continued their stratospheric rise, and banks have more cash than they know what to do with. Yet the Fed is still pumping billions into the economy. Why? That’s what a growing number of lawmakers, investors and even some Fed officials themselves are demanding to know. They are warning that the central bank’s vast purchases of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities are feeding financial bubbles in the housing, stock and even cryptocurrency markets, and stoking higher consumer prices, with little apparent benefit to ordinary Americans."
The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. "Nearly 600 Albuquerque-area homes now have an assessed value of at least $1 million – about three times as many as there were a decade ago. According to data from the Bernalillo County Assessor’s Office – which determines property values for taxation purposes – the number of $1 million homes increased 29.2% in 2021. There are now 588 countywide, up from 455 last year and 396 two years ago. In 2011, there were 198."
"And the current number likely would be higher, officials say, if homeowners were not protected by a cap on valuation increases."
From NBC News. "Stachan Forgan, an architect who works downtown at 255 California St., is still struck by how much street life has changed around his office building. Gone are he pre-pandemic crowds of bankers and lawyers who jammed into the famed Tadich Grill across the street from his office. In recent months in his two-block walk from the nearby train station, he said, he has frequently been verbally assaulted and physically threatened by the rising number of homeless people."
"That's because even though San Francisco commercial office buildings are emptier than they have been in decades and the city is estimated to have 8,000 homeless people, it's unlikely that any of the empty offices will become homes for anyone at any economic level, even though more housing is desperately needed in general. Such conversions aren't happening in the rest of the country, as well. In the second quarter of this year, the commercial vacancy rate across San Francisco reached 15.4 percent, more than the 12 percent figure last year and more than double what it was just two years ago."
"Phoenix's office market vacancy is 'elevated' at 16.2 percent, while Miami is at an 'eight-year high' of 16.9 percent and Los Angeles has reached 'all-time highs' of 17.8 percent. Meanwhile, New York City is at a 'post-2000 high' of 19.2 percent vacancy, and Houston is at a 'record high' 22.9 percent of such workspaces that are going unused. At the same time, the number of homeless people is as high as it has ever been in the U.S. — over 560,000. More than a quarter of them are Californians."
The San Jose Spotlight in California. "Spartan-Keyes neighborhood resident Aurelia Sanchez won San Jose’s Litter Volunteer of the Year award in 2012. But despite her best efforts, Sanchez says the neighborhood’s litter has only gotten worse. The latest complaint among locals is dirty bus stops. 'Do we have enough staff right now if we’re going to push less parking for tenants? Do we have enough police to patrol these areas where, especially at night, women and children ride transit?' Sanchez said. 'It’s scary out there. Especially in the evenings and especially areas like Spartan-Keyes where I live.'"
"Micah Stufflebeam, an employee at Leale’s Auto Repair & Transmission near one of the bus stops, says he sees homeless people walk across the shop’s lot daily leaving their trash behind. But the real problem, he says, is the lack of services they’ve been given. 'I think the biggest problem is they like to hang out under that tree, which intimidates some of our customers,' Stufflebeam told San José Spotlight. 'I’ve seen people defecating at the bus stop or on the wall and just leaving trash all over the place. I don’t think there’s enough programs for them. We see it all day.'"
From KRON 4 in California. "The cost to produce a prototype of a new trash can in San Francisco is turning a few heads.KRON4 spoke with the acting director of SF Public Works who defends the cost because he says it is more than just a trash can. A $20,000 prototype of a trash can in the shape of a salt shaker. It is one of three new designs approved by the San Francisco Department of Public Works. There are smartphones, smartwatches, smart cars, and now a smart trash can. These cans are equipped with sensors that will alert public works that the can is full."
The Roanoke Star. "According to the June 2021report released by Virginia REALTORS®, while June sales numbers were strong, several signs point to a slowing of the housing market over the second half of the year. A cooling in the market will help ease the frenzy that has led to bidding wars and major price escalation all across the state. Most markets across Virginia are seeing expanding inventories, and some markets are seeing a slowdown in buyer activity."
"In recent months, a lot of the expanding inventory has been driven by more listings of condominiums and townhomes, particularly in Northern Virginia. However, more single-family homes are coming onto the market, and it is expected that overall inventories will be greater over the summer and into the fall in most markets in Virginia."
The Sun Sentinel. "Summer might finally be your chance to buy a house in South Florida’s sizzling real estate market. Competition for homes could ease as part-time residents head north and people take off on vacation, real estate agents say. Open houses could be less packed. Bidding wars could subside. Some housing developments continue to see stronger sales this summer than last year, but buyers are feeling less pressured, agents say."
"'It’s been a more relaxing experience,' said Todd Richardson, head of sales at Royal Palm Residences in Boca Raton."
From The Economist. "Miami is hot–especially if you are selling a home. House prices are 20 per cent higher than a year ago. Ecstatic estate agents describe a bonanza. Sellers are waiving inspections and appraisals entirely, buying units sight unseen, and aggressively bidding up prices. Yet amid this exuberance, almost 8 per cent of mortgage-holders in Miami are delinquent, among the highest share in the nation. Meanwhile, people renting housing face the end of a federal moratorium on evictions at the end of the month. A moratorium on mortgage foreclosures ends at the same time, raising fears of a spike in houses lost amid a house-price boom."
"Some 2.8 million households, containing 7.4m Americans, are behind with the rent. The same surveys show that 1.9m households, in which 6m Americans live, are behind on their mortgages. Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, a lobbying group, find that 4.3 per cent of borrowers are more than 90 days behind, or 'seriously delinquent.' In normal times, they would be facing imminent foreclosure. That is about three times the level before the pandemic, says Frank Nothaft of CoreLogic. Most of those people, he adds, are being protected by government programmes."
"Each statistic is the aggregate of many glum stories. Keith Simpson ran a construction company until the financial crisis. He requested a change to the terms of his loan in 2011 after falling behind on payments for the home in Miami that he and his wife bought in 1998. After two years of paperwork and progress, his wife was given too much opioid medication while in hospital in 2013–an accident that left her disabled. Since she was unable to work, Simpson had to resubmit his application for modified terms. Instead, the bank decided to foreclose."
"His first legal appeal was successful. Then it was overturned by Florida’s third district court of appeals, which sided with the bank. The couple were served a notice to leave and moved into rented accommodation in 2018–20 years after purchasing their home. 'We were just completely wiped out,' says Simpson. 'I am 65 years old and I am starting all over again from scratch.' He looks at the situation many homeowners face now and worries the same fate will befall them, too."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "CIBC economist Benjamin Tal asks Are homeowners ready for higher rates? 'Canadian households, wooed by historically low interest rates, have accumulated mortgage debt at a rate never seen in a recessionary period. Are they ready for higher rates? … The risk of more sustainable and sticky inflationary pressures down the road might lead to a more aggressive tightening trajectory. And with the effectiveness of monetary policy much larger than at any point in the post war-era due to a record-high level of household debt, a relatively small increase in rates could have a notable impact on the market.'"
"'… With signs of cooling appearing this spring in the Canadian housing market, attention will quickly shift to the impact on prices. Suburban markets that surged in the past year, and properties in cottage country, are likely to be the first to pause. The real impact will become evident when interest rates rise in 2022. To the extent the Bank of Canada starts hiking rates in Mid-2022 as we expect, the tightening trajectory is likely to be gradual enough to allow the housing market to adjust at a healthy pace. Accordingly, delinquency and bankruptcies rates are expected to return to pre-COVID levels by early 2022.'"
From News.com.au. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) appears to be charting a very different course. In mid-June, ANZ brought forward its projection of the first RBNZ rate rise to February 2022, on the back of strong GDP growth. Now just a few weeks’ later things have changed course almost entirely. Investors and financial markets are now pricing in a 90 per cent chance of interest rates being hiked by the RBNZ at their very next meeting in August. Despite the RBNZ forecasting that it would be 16 months before rates would rise, higher inflation and market expectations of a rate hike could see them moving up in a matter of weeks."
"But the rate hikes are not expected to stop there. According to forecasts from Westpac economists, rates are predicted to go up in August, October and November. This would raise the RBNZ cash rate by 0.75 per cent, from its current record low of 0.25 per cent to 1 per cent. In a little over six weeks from the RBNZ cautiously confirming no rate hikes until September 2022, the RBNZ’s approach to interest rates has been completely transformed. If that happens, New Zealand will become the test case for rising interest rates throughout the Western world."
The Western Australian. "Though home values have been rising in the last handful of months, Nu Wealth Strategic Property Advisor Craig Gemmil said Perth’s apartment market offered investors something to think about. 'With the glut of apartments on the market over the past few years, developers were left with the choice of selling at a discount or renting them, and typically most developers have leased these properties to maintain cashflow,' he said. 'For astute property investors, near-new apartments offer a prime investment opportunity, as they are being sold already tenanted and well below their initial asking price when built.'"
"Despite the positive conditions, Western Australia is still having to cry for investors to take a punt. Real estate agents have continually reported unprecedented crowds at home opens, flying property values and rising rents, but Perth’s investor cohort still won’t budge. Nu Wealth Director Daniel McQuillan recently said the state’s potential landlords were suffering from buyer’s fright and missing out on significant windfalls in Perth’s red-hot market."
"He said the big challenge was encouraging investors to overcome this mindset and knock some new rentals into the market. 'Research by Nu Wealth shows only 30 per cent of investors make money in the Perth real estate market because they bought before the boom, while the remaining 70 per cent lose money because they adopted the herd mentality and bought at the top of the market,' Mr McQuillan said. 'Until these investors’ buyer’s fright syndrome ends, rents will continue to surge in Perth and the few investors who do decide to buy now will make big profits over the next two years.'"