More And More Sellers Are Accepting The Realities Of The Current Market
A report from Sarasota Magazine in Florida. "Not only did Manatee County see the first year-over-year increase in sales since February 2022, but the area also had the first year-over-year decrease in median prices since February 2019. At the end of the month, in the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, there were 5,541 active listings, an almost 250 percent increase from the same time last year. 'Half of sellers think we’re still in the high market we recently saw. But that started to shift around last April so they’re still aiming too high and not selling,' says Marlin Yoder, a local realtor with Harry E. Robbins Associates. 'The transactions that are happening are being negotiated down.'"
"As for factors contributing to increased inventory, Yoder is also seeing pandemic-induced investments take a pivot. 'A lot of people bought short-term rentals in 2021 after the pandemic due to a boom in the tourism industry because people could suddenly travel and work remotely. But it was a bit of a fad and many were managed half-heartedly and they’re not making money and being offloaded now,' he adds."
From WTOP News. "Second home sales surged during the first year of the pandemic, peaking in August 2020, up 89%from pre-pandemic levels. Maryland and Delaware beach communities became among the most-frenzied for vacation home buyers. Second home sales have now dropped 52% since that peak, according to March data from Redfin, compared to a 13% decline for primary homes. Many second home buyers also took advantage of those low rates to purchase a second home as an investment and put it in short-term vacation rental programs when they weren’t using them. A separate report by listing service Bright MLS suggests second home and short-term vacation homeowners are looking to get out of those investments."
"In the Mid-Atlantic, one in six sales in March was a rental or investment property, led by 21.4% in Delaware and 19.1% of sales in Maryland, both of which have popular beach communities. 'This pattern suggests that people who purchased second homes of investment homes during the pandemic — particularly in coastal markets — might be looking to offload them as we head into the summer months,' Bright MLS said."
The Scottsdale Progress in Arizona. "Did the Super Bowl take the bloom off short-term rentals’ rose? Valley housing market analyst The Cromford Report thinks it might – and maybe ought to. The report said that while short-term rental landlords were looking forward to cashing in big time on out-of-state traffic to the big game, they scored no touchdown. 'Many owners were disappointed with their receipts from the Super Bowl,' the Cromford Report said. 'We seem to have an excess of short-term rental supply which means owners are having to compete with each other on price for short-term tenants. As we head into the low season for holiday rentals, we may see some get sold off.'"
KSNV in Nevada. "The Oakland A’s announcement to come to Las Vegas has many excited for the endless opportunities it could bring the economy. However, short-term rental operators are concerned they might be left out as they await licenses to legal operators in Clark County, as County Commissioners work out an application process to license short-term rentals still illegal in Unincorporated Clark County. 'Our politicians need to allow everyone else to enjoy themselves. Right now, everything that happens is only for the benefit of the resort hotels; what about the rest of the community? They also need to make extra money,' said Jacqueline Flores, of The Greater Las Vegas Short-Term Rental Association."
Hawaii Real Estate Dreams. "The end of the quarter saw Kona having its highest closing total for March since September, very good news. But you can tell by the graph that we are off to a slow start for the year. We are down to 184 sold properties for the first quarter compared to 290 last year, or 36%. But wait! That was the good news, we are down 58% from 2021 sales. Vacation rental supply on the Big Island has increased 33% from 2022… that is huge! The demand only went up 14% resulting in a 65.7% occupancy, down 11% from 2022, with an average daily rate of $249. February hotel occupancy dropped 5% to 77% from 2019 levels. But the room rates are up a whopping 52% from 2019 so that has to have something to do with it, I would think. Occupancy at its heart is pricing. Nightly rates for Kona went up 75% since 2019, or roughly $100 a night. In that same timeframe, occupancy dropped 22% to 63.3%… yikes! I believe there is a direct correlation."
The Wall Street Journal. "It is bad news for the banks, pension funds and asset managers that are among the biggest lenders to and owners of commercial buildings, which means they could face losses for years to come. Commercial mortgages account for around 38% of the median U.S. bank’s loan holdings, according to KBW Research. North American public pension funds on average hold around 9% of their assets in real estate, according to Preqin. 'You literally have trillions of dollars of investment that are suddenly just massively impaired,' said Dan Zwirn, chief executive of rena Investors, a New York-based asset manager and real-estate investor."
The Associated Press. "Housing developers are converting empty office towers into housing as part of an effort to revive struggling downtown business districts that emptied during the pandemic. Conversion projects are underway in New York, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. There also can be environmental issues, said Anoop Davé, the CEO of Victrix, a real estate investment management development company specializing in converting mostly vacant office buildings into residential buildings and hotels. 'A lot of these buildings could have asbestos or something like that. That is not necessarily a deal killer, but sometimes the cost or remediating is so large that even if you are given it for zero, it doesn’t work.'"
"Jordan Woods, a federal government contractor, moved to an apartment in downtown Washington in 2019. Then the pandemic came and downtown became 'like a moonscape' for more than a year. 'And even before the pandemic it was still missing basic stuff like playgrounds and dog parks and a normal non-Whole Foods grocery store that I could walk to,' Mr. Woods said. 'I wouldn’t say I regret it, but if I was considering the same move right now, I’m not sure I would do it.'"
The New York Post. "Struggling Silicon Valley startups reportedly face a potential bloodbath this year as cash runs low and wary tech investors flee a major downturn in the sector. Conditions in the tech sector have gotten so rough that many embattled startups will likely be forced to raise funds from outside investors at a lower valuation – known as a 'down round' – or risk running out of money entirely, industry experts told Bloomberg in a dire report published Monday. 'We haven’t had a compression in values like this in more than 20 years. It’s an absolute bloodbath,' Cameron Lester, global co-head of technology media and telecom investment banking at Jefferies, told the outlet."
"'We’re actually in one of the worst times in recent memory in venture activity,' AngelList CEO Avlok Kohli told Bloomberg. 'It’s the lowest activity we’ve seen and the lowest positive activity we’ve seen.'"
Palo Alto Online in California. "Midpeninsula Realtors are navigating the spring real estate season with no shortage of challenges. This season’s housing outlook is accompanied by higher Well-priced, well-presented properties are selling,' said Brian Chancellor, a Palo Alto Realtor at Christie’s International Real Estate Sereno. 'This market was so strong for so long, some agents have not seen some of the conditions we have now. I do think more and more sellers are accepting the realities of the current market ... and it’s an up and down market.interest rates, economic uncertainties, large-scale tech industry layoffs and very tight housing inventories.'"
"Despite higher interest rates, tech lay-offs and other economic challenges, Denise Welsh, a Los Altos Realtor at Compass Real Estate, predicts a 'good market overall' this spring. 'But, no one should expect it to be like 2021' said Welsh, noting that year’s pandemic-fueled frenetic housing market. 'That was an anomaly.'"
The Globe and Mail. "Canadian mortgage insurers are guaranteeing billions of dollars’ worth of loans for which borrowers increasingly owe more than the value of their property. Financial disclosures from Canada’s three major mortgage insurers show that the drop in home prices over the past year has chipped away at the equity in homeowners’ properties. The more a homeowner owes relative to the property value, the more it pushes up a key lending metric called the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio. Now, insurers are reporting that a growing share of their individual mortgage borrowers have an LTV ratio above that threshold. In some cases, borrowers have mortgages that are bigger than the updated value of their property, or an LTV ratio greater than 100 per cent."
"Disclosures from Canada Guaranty Mortgage Insurance Co. show its proportion of loans with an estimated LTV ratio above 100 per cent increased by more than six times to nearly $4-billion in the fourth quarter of last year. That represented 5 per cent of its outstanding insured mortgages for individuals, according to Canada Guaranty’s quarterly portfolio metrics. That is up from $532-million, or 0.74 per cent of its outstanding insured mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2021, according to the disclosures. The country’s other two insurers, Sagen MI Canada Inc. and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., also reported that the proportion of loans with the highest LTVs doubled in 2022."
"The interest rates have risen so quickly that borrowers have found themselves in a position in which their monthly payment does not cover the entire interest portion of their loan. The unpaid interest is then added to the principal, and the borrower’s original loan amount increases. That also has contributed to the higher LTVs."
The Independent. "Nicolas Cage has defended his many straight-to-VOD films, explaining why he accepted the roles, stating: 'I was over-invested in real estate. The real estate market crashed, and I couldn’t get out in time.' The actor, who reportedly blew his $150m (£120m) fortune on real estate, previously said the money earnt from the straight-to-VOD roles also helped him keep his mother out of a mental institution.'"