Prices Rose Too Drastically, So Now They’re Dropping, But They Still Haven’t Fallen Enough
A report from the Telegraph. "Almost half of America’s 4,800 banks are already burning through their capital buffers. They may not have to mark all losses to market under US accounting rules but that does not make them solvent. Somebody will take those losses. 'It’s spooky. Thousands of banks are underwater,' said Professor Amit Seru, a banking expert at Stanford University. 'Let’s not pretend that this is just about Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic. A lot of the US banking system is potentially insolvent.'"
From CBS News. "The stock prices of Comerica, PacWest Bancorp, Western Alliance Bank and Zions Bank shares fell sharply Tuesday. 'Wall Street is quickly hitting the sell button as banking turmoil appears it is not going away anytime soon and is ready to focus on the next weakest link — potentially distressed lenders with tremendous exposure to commercial real estate,' said Edward Moya, a senior market analyst at Oanda. Investors aren't withdrawing from PacWest and Western Alliance for the same reasons they ditched Silicon Valley Bank, said Adam Crisafulli, an analyst at Vital Knowledge. In March, customers pulled their money out because of concerns the banks could be on the hook for hefty losses, Crisafulli said in a research note."
"'That is not spurring the selling now,' he said. 'Instead, the anxiety today is more philosophical, with people asking 'Why do you exist?' with regards to many regionals."
Senior Housing News. "The industry has billions worth of loans coming due in 2023 and 2024 amid a tough capital markets environment where the cost of capital is higher and — thanks to recent bank uncertainties — there are fewer willing lenders. For senior living operators, this cross-current of operational difficulty and tougher capital markets will likely amount to rising distress and falling valuations in the year ahead, according to NIC Chief Economist Beth Mace. The industry’s near-term pain may affect valuations to the point that they lead to new opportunities. 'I think we’re going to see so-called creative destruction,' Mace said."
Multi-Housing News. "One month later and it seems the industry is experiencing déjà vu. Multifamily is again racked with uncertainty over the Federal Reserve Bank’s upcoming meeting. 'As interest rates rise, cap rates rise, and given the inverse relationship of cap rates to values, higher cap rates translate into lower values and pricing,' said Karlin Conklin, Principal, COO, Investors Management Group, told MHN.. 'Sellers are reeling at the loss in values right now, particularly if they purchased in the last several years when deals traded at cap rates in the low 4s for desirable, top-tier markets.'"
"These higher cap rates result in a 12 percent to 18 percent loss of value causing sellers to hold onto their assets until value recovers, she continued. 'I estimate that it [the difficulty of acquiring financing] has impacted about 75 percent of projects around the country,' said Morris Kaplan, president of Kaplan Residential. 'The lending landscape is so restrictive that it has pretty much slowed down multifamily to a standstill.'"
The Real Deal on California. "Sales and prices of Los Angeles County apartments have fallen off a cliff. The number of units sold in L.A. County fell nearly 11 percent in the first quarter from the final quarter last year, while the year-over-year drop was 37.5 percent, the Commercial Observer reported, citing a report from NAI Capital. At the same time, the average sales price per unit dropped 18.4 percent."
"For investors, the San Fernando Valley and Santa Clarita Valley had the largest drop in average multifamily sale price per unit, down 35.9 percent year over year, while the number of vacant units rose 22 percent. The San Gabriel Valley had the largest rise in vacant units, up 32.2 percent as the average sale price per unit sold dropped 20.3 percent year over year. The average price per unit sold on L.A.’s Westside fell 9.5 percent, while the number of vacant units rose 10.7 percent."
The Gazette. "The Colorado Springs-area housing market remained in a funk last month as home sales, prices and construction fell again, two industry reports show. In April, sales of Springs-area single-family and patio homes totaled 1,090, a nearly 27% drop from the same month last year, according to a Pikes Peak Association of Realtors' market trends report. Home sales now have declined for 11 straight months. The median price of homes that sold in April declined 5.3% to $459,000 from $484,450 in April 2022, the association's report showed. Year-over-year prices now have fallen four of the last five months, which followed an eight-year streak in which prices increased every month during that span."
"The supply of homes listed for sale totaled 1,590 at the end of April, which was almost two-thirds higher than during the same month last year, according to the Realtors Association's report. Sellers need to accept that higher mortgage rates have led to softer demand, said Bruce Betts, a real estate agent with Re/Max Advantage in Colorado Springs. 'We have 1,500 homes on the market and 1,000 or 1,100 sold in a month,' Betts aid. 'That's not a cratering market. That's not a buyer's market at all. That's a really strong, healthy market for sellers. But they have to be realistic about their price. It's not cratered, it's not crashed or any other words like that at all,' Betts added. 'It's slowed from what it was. It's not as crazy as what it was.'"
A press release. "Home prices are falling fastest in pandemic boomtowns like Austin and expensive coastal markets like Seattle and San Francisco because prices in those places skyrocketed to unsustainable levels in recent years. Prices are now making their way back down to earth after many homebuyers were priced out. In Boise, ID, the median sale price fell 15.4% year over year in March—more than anywhere else in the U.S. 'Home prices in Boise jumped during the pandemic because people were flooding in from high-income states like California and Washington. Now locals can’t afford to buy homes,' said local Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton. 'Prices rose too drastically, so now they’re dropping, but they still haven’t fallen enough to bring a ton of buyers back to the market.'"
"In Austin, home prices decreased 13.6% year over year in March—the second biggest decline in the country. In many parts of the country, home sellers who bought during the pandemic are in an especially tricky situation because there’s a chance they’ll sell at a loss, Pendleton said. One seller Pendleton is working with bought their newly built home for $390,000 less than a year ago and now needs to relocate to care for family. While their house received four offers in under a week and sold at the $370,000 asking price, the seller still ended up losing about $37,000 when accounting for agent commissions."
"'When I meet with prospective sellers who purchased their homes recently, I’m suggesting they stay put for a while longer if they can. If you bought in 2021 or early 2022, you may sell for what you paid or less,' Pendleton said."
The Vancouver Sun. "Just over half of people in the housing market who are paying variable-rate mortgages are having a tough time financially, according to the latest poll from Angus Reid Institute. The survey found that three in 10 Canadian homeowners report difficulty paying their mortgage, rising to 51 per cent among those paying variable rates. Over three-quarters (77 per cent) of those surveyed said they’re worried about added costs the next time they have to renew their mortgage, regardless of what type they have, fixed, variable or other. That’s true of nearly all (91 per cent) of those who are in the early days of their mortgage, those with 25 or more years left in their amortization schedule."
"Nearly one in five homeowners (18 per cent) say they would lose money if they had to sell, rising to 24 per cent among those whose mortgage is for 25 years or more. The overall real estate situation has seen a major correction in recent months. By February, prices had fallen 15 per cent nationwide from a peak in February 2022. Prices are still above pre-pandemic levels. But 24 per cent of those with longer terms remaining on their mortgage, or who may have bought around the peak of the price spike in 2022, say they are likely to lose money if forced to sell."
The Grocer in the UK. "As if inflation and the march of the discounters wasn’t enough to contend with, supermarkets have something else weighing on their profits: the plummeting value of their estates. Sainsbury’s this week became the latest to reveal the impact, with its results noting a £141m writedown on property, plant and equipment included in its adjusted underlying profit before tax in the year to 4 March. That followed this month’s announcement of a walloping £982m writedown in Tesco’s statutory profit before tax in the year to 26 February, to £1bn – primarily on property. And Waitrose parent John Lewis made a loss before tax of £234m in the year to 28 January, ballooning from a £27m loss the previous year, largely due to property writedowns, its results showed last month."
"The losses can be enormous. 'Much of the market relates to debt-driven investors, so when their borrowing costs increase, the values of the properties they are buying fall' since the return relative to the investment lowers, says Matthew Hobbs, head of retail lease advisory at Colliers. 'The last time there was a major writedown in supermarket property values was in 2015,' says Hobbs, driven at the time by an excess of land acquired by the retailers in the preceding ‘race for space’. 'As a result, in their 2015 accounts, Tesco reported a pre-tax loss of £6.4 bn – its worst loss in its then 97-year history,' says Hobbs."
From ABC News. "As the head of credit risk at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA), Glenn Homan oversaw the introduction of a serviceability 'floor' in 2014, as part of the regulator's attempt to rein in risky lending that was fuelling a runaway housing market. However, the interest rate floor was scrapped by APRA in 2019, after lobbying from the banking sector. It was a move that, Mr Homan said, with some benefit of hindsight, had led to a 'bad outcome' for many Australians who had cashed in on the COVID-19 property boom and were now facing financial hardship as interest rates returned to historically average levels."
"'It was designed to not have people over-gear themselves too much,' he said. 'I think it's been almost frightening that people, in their own mind, don't have a sense of what the maximum mortgage is that they want or they're comfortable with. They have had a tendency to rely on the lending shop to tell them, 'Why borrow $500,000, when you can afford, you know, $1 million?'"
"Across his four decades in the financial sector, Mr Homan observed lending institutions pushing borrowers to their absolute limit if the prudential regulations permitted it. Lenders directly dealing with customers also often had commissions and bonuses tied to the volume of loans they gave out. 'I think people have been encouraged [by lenders] to really try borrow the supposed maximum they can afford against the serviceability model that any particular organisation uses,' he said."