The Market Experienced A Temporary Exuberance, Maybe Detached From Rationality A Little Bit
A report from Business Insider. "After wealthy New Yorkers fled to the seaside haven on Long Island during the pandemic, the boom has ended. One Hamptons broker told CNBC that the area was 'chocked with supply,' while another told the outlet that there is 'too much inventory at every level.' While CNBC cited price reductions spanning between 10% and 20%, it's possible that 'greater discounts will show up,' one agent told CNBC. An excess of Hamptons summer rentals is starting to become a trend. Last year, a similar glut of rental properties cropped up without the requisite demand to match, leading homeowners to slash rental prices by up to 30%."
The National Desk. "The pace of rent growth has slowed for 11 consecutive months. 'There’s a lot of supply hitting the market, and that’s helping tilt the balance of power in the rental market back in favor of renters – who suddenly have a lot more options than they did in 2021 and early 2022,' said Jay Parsons, chief economist of RealPage. One of the pandemic’s fastest-growing metros in Austin, Texas saw a 14.3% decline in asking rents from last year, which comes as home values have also declined by double digits. Other areas that saw large declines were Phoenix falling 9.6%, Las Vegas dipping 7.1% and Oklahoma City dropping 6.4%. Redfin said eight of the 10 metros with the largest declines were in Sun Belt states."
From KXRM. "Hundreds of people in Colorado Springs are stressing out over their new property evaluations – some homeowners are furious because the value of their homes has more than doubled, which means their property taxes will reflect that. Many homeowners are confused, because when they look at housing websites the current market price of their house does not reflect these valuations. The El Paso County Assessor’s office says that’s because it was required to assess the market by June 30, 2022, which at that point, was a peak real estate market."
"'Leading up to that June 30th of 2022… interest rates were at all-time lows… and the market experienced a temporary exuberance, maybe detached from rationality a little bit,' said Matthew Arvidson, the El Paso County Chief Deputy Assessor."
The Orange County Register in California. "Orange County housing lost eight million-dollar ZIP codes in a year while adding three 'affordable' neighborhoods. Countywide, the median selling price was $990,000 in March – off 3% in a year, according to CoreLogic data. Sales totaled 2,109 existing and new homes – off 34% in a year. Biggest one-year price dips …Anaheim 92808 – off 33% to $710,000. Orange 92866 – off 30% to $857,500. Laguna Beach 92651 – off 29% to $2.08 million. Yorba Linda 92887 – off 27% to $923,500. Santa Ana 92706 – off 27% to $827,500. Silverado 92676 – off 25% to $735,000. Corona Del Mar 92625 – off 21% to $2.65 million. Cypress 90630 – off 20% to $825,000. Costa Mesa 92627 – off 19% to $990,000. Dana Point 92629 – off 18% to $1.2 million."
"Pricier financing is a big factor in the sales slump. The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.5% in March vs. 4.2% 12 months earlier. The typical Orange County buyer got a 27% bigger payment – $5,027 monthly on the $990,000 price median vs. $3,957 on a year ago’s $1,015,000 home. And that payment requires $198,000 for a 20% downpayment."
From Bankrate. "Mortgage credit availability declined in April to its lowest level since January 2013, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). An April survey by the Federal Reserve found the stricter standards don’t affect conventional conforming loans bought by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the majority of mortgages originated in the U.S. — or loans issued through the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) programs. Instead, lenders are holding back on niche products such as subprime mortgages, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and non-qualified, or 'non-QM' jumbo mortgages."
From Reuters. "Amid a modest gain in overall household borrowing levels during the first quarter, the level of those taking on new housing-related debt dropped sharply, the New York Fed said Monday in a report. The New York Fed took special note of how housing-related debt has performed since 2020, when the pandemic struck and the Fed slashed rates to near-zero levels and bought bonds that helped ensure mortgage rates were super-low, which in turn sparked a huge surge in home prices and purchases. The bank noted that 14 million mortgages were refinanced between 2020 and 2021, some five million borrowers extracted $430 billion in home equity during the period."
From CTV News. "Home sales continued their decline last month in some of the major markets in northeastern Ontario. Statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) said the biggest decline last month was in the Timmins, Cochrane and Timiskaming Districts, where sales declined by 35.3 per cent compared to April 2022. 'Home sales were 21.3 per cent below the five-year average and 12.8 per cent below the 10-year average for the month of April,' the CREA said. 'On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 298 units over the first four months of the year. This was down sharply by 42.7 per cent from the same period in 2022.' The average sale price last month was $259,642, a drop of 6.3 per cent compared to a year ago."
"Sales in North Bay also dropped, dipping 33.6 per cent compared to April 2022. Home sales were 30.4 per cent lower in April than the five-year average and down 30 per cent compared to the 10-year average. So far this year, home sales are down by 364.6 per cent compared to a year ago. The average sale price in April was $426,475, down by 19.2 per cent compared to 2022. In Sudbury, meanwhile, sales declined by 29.5 per cent last month and are down by 35.9 per cent for the first four months of the year. The CREA said the average sale price in April was $460,012, down 9.1 per cent compared to April 2022. 'The dollar value of all home sales in April 2023 was $84.6 million, a big decline of 35.9 per cent from the same month in 2022,' the CREA said."
From Reuters. "South Korean house prices weakened for an 11th consecutive month in April - its longest streak of declines in 11 years - but the pace of falls continued to slow, data showed on Monday. The data showed the house price index fell by a combined 8.53% during the 11-month period, the worst since 2003 when the board began to release the data. Still, the current cycle of decline was partly due a price correction following a non-stop rally over 32 months until May 2022, the data showed."
The South China Morning Post. "Triangular debt, a problem that first troubled China's economy over three decades ago, has resurfaced as the country's post-pandemic recovery is challenged by weak demand at home and abroad. Triangular debt arises when delayed or partial payments leave companies owing money to each other and to their banks. It discourages production and investment and the resulting liabilities or bad loans can put a damper on growth and exacerbate financial risks. Liu Ge, who runs an industrial printing company in Guangdong province, said the problem of overdue payments had been getting worse by the year and the insufficient supply of orders faced by most SMEs this year would definitely make the situation worse."
"'For the same supplier, the payment term is extended by an average of about 20 days compared to last year,' he said. 'But, for the domestic market, it is impossible for a company to avoid the problem of extension of payment terms, unless you stop doing business. I think the fundamental reason is that the profitability of private firms, especially small businesses like us, is getting lower and lower. Firms are trying their best to maintain their own operations by delaying payments and keeping more cash in hand.'"
"Liu Yun, a property decorator from Zhuhai, Guangdong, said the overall environment seemed a bit better this year, but payment terms had yet to shorten significantly. His company was owed tens of millions of yuan late last year by clients who included some state-owned real estate developers. 'There are more construction projects than last year, mainly municipal engineering works, and the cost of construction is generally the same as last year,' he said. 'But small- and medium-sized subcontractors like us hardly win bids. The real estate developers have repaid us some cash, but most of the rest still require us to accept some of their presale dwellings as payment. That means we will lose at least 10 per cent of what we budgeted for, due to China's property market slump.'"
From Pedestrian TV on Australia. "In case you need any more reason to distrust real estate agents, a Sydney realtor not only landed himself in deep shit with angry Facebook commenters, but also been suspended from his job after he basically admitted to having disdain for renters. Honestly, this is why no one likes y’all! The drama began when Abhnit Kumar, a 23-year-old real estate agent from Ray White Macarthur Group in Campbelltown, posted about a home he helped sell for $958,000 on his Facebook page."
"'The market doesn’t dictate your home’s price, the agent does,' Kumar wrote alongside his sale, encouraging homeowners to reach out if they wanted to sell. One Facebook commenter asked why Kumar was 'artificially inflating house prices during a period of high inflation.' Kumar, not having yet picked up on the scent of danger crackling through the air, brazenly admitted prioritising money over people and told the commenter he could 'maximise on the profits you can make' when selling their 'biggest asset.' Big mistake, buddy."
"'You said you inflate prices, so that the market is overpriced. Your words, not mine, I know when I’m in the market for a house I will be staying well away from your agency,' they wrote. 'It’s no wonder real estate agents are one of the least trusted professions.' Aaaand this is where the drama really kicked off, because Kumar then responded: 'Hey buddy you must clearly be a renter. Please stay away from my agency as we would not like to deal with people like you.'"
"Naturally, the comments took a nosedive as the real estate agent was then accused of being anti-renter, and by extension, anti-poor people. The backlash prompted him to apologise though, and he deleted the post. Things don’t end here, though: the online hullabaloo was clearly picked up on by Kumar’s agency, who immediately suspended him and kicked off an internal investigation."
"The wildest part to me about all this is the real estate agency’s claims that Kumar wasn’t acting like he was supposed to. Just last year a Ray White real estate agency in Queensland was exposed for telling its agents to convince landlords that they should take advantage of the housing crisis and hike rent by another 20 per cent. I’m pretty sure we’re all aware inflating house price is common practice among real estate agents looking for a juicy commission. Let’s not pretend Kumar wasn’t behaving exactly like the culture in the real estate world has taught him to."