A Large Number Of Mortgage-Holders Will Now Be Facing Terrible Pain
It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "Owners with a mortgage lost a small amount of equity last quarter — an average of $5,400 per borrower — marking the first annual decline since 2012, according to CoreLogic. But home-equity changes varied widely across regions. Western states posted the biggest losses, led by Washington, California and Utah. In the San Francisco area, the typical homeowner experienced equity loss of $174,000 year-over-year. 'While homeowners in some areas of the country who bought a property last spring have no equity as a result of price losses, forecasted home price appreciation over the next year should help many borrowers regain some of that lost equity,' said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic’s chief economist."
"Redfin found that the housing market overall is seeing fewer and fewer sales. But although inventory is severely limited, prices are continuing to decline year over year. The Redfin report said that prices in the four weeks ending May 28 were down 1.9% from a year earlier. The company reported in April that the median home price had decreased by $18,000 since April 2022. Some markets are seeing bigger price drops than average. Here are the five cities with the highest year-over-year price declines, according to Redfin: Austin, Texas (down 16.4% from May 2022). Oakland, California (-11.5%). Las Vegas, Nevada (-9.9%). San Francisco, California (-8.6%). Sacramento, California (-8.5%)."
"In the first quarter of this year, investor home purchases plummeted compared to the year prior. Data shows a 49% drop in investor purchases nationally, the largest drop on record. The annual drop in investor purchases in Phoenix is over 64%, the fourth largest drop in any real estate market led by Nassau County New York, Atlanta and Charlotte. One of the major explanations for the decline is simple economics. Redfin says as many as 31% of homes in Phoenix are being sold at a loss. Investors are buying homes at a median price of $400,000 but selling them for only $10,000 more. Which is not enough in most cases to recoup any associated expenses. The annual sales price of investment properties is also down 9%."
"The Waco economy is not in recession, says Amarillo-based economist Karr Ingham, who prepares a monthly snapshot of local trends. That is not to say blemishes are not showing. The housing industry continues to flounder. First National Bank of Central Texas CEO Joe Barrow said his son, a builder, 'has tradespeople calling him, looking for work. That used to not be the case. Those at the top level are staying busy. Those in the second or third tier, not so much.'"
"With mounting mortgage costs and tighter bank lending, the outlook for the commercial real estate market nationally is bad and getting worse. In the Dallas-Fort Worth area alone, almost $2 billion in commercial real estate debt is coming due by the end of next year, analysts estimate. Many borrowers could be hard-pressed to get new funding for those properties. 'We’ve got the sharpest rise in interest rates in 40 years,' said Richard Barkham, global chief economist for Dallas-based CBRE Group. “It’s pushed the cost of capital up in real estate and we’ve got a value drop taking place in all the sectors.'"
"Barkham told journalists this week that nationwide values of industrial buildings are down 16% and apartments’ worth has fallen by more than 20%. The greatest decline is in the beleaguered office building market where property values are sinking by more than a third."
"Borrowers will soon wave the white flag on a sizable percentage of office buildings across the country, two major CEOs in the sector say. Of the $1.5T worth of office loans coming due in the next three years, a third will either be foreclosed on or returned as deeds in lieu of foreclosure, PGIM Real Estate CEO David Hunt told CNBC on Wednesday. Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick predicted in an interview with Bloomberg that 20% of the U.S. office market will 'have the keys handed in.' 'Let's face it, if rates go to 8% or 9% and your rents haven't gone up like that, the math doesn't work,' Lutnick told CNBC. 'Give the keys back to the bank.'"
"The Bank of Canada's interest rate hike of another quarter of a percentage point will dial up the financial pain felt by borrowers with variable-rate mortgages and some of those with fixed rates. Higher mortgage rates will also hurt real estate investors with variable mortgage rates, said Victor Tran, a mortgage and real estate expert. Especially among those who haven’t been able to cover their costs with rental income for months, 'we will likely see some forced sales due to pressures from rising housing expenses,' Mr. Tran said."
"Many mortgage holders who’ve hit the trigger rate haven’t been asked to pay more so far, Desjardins economists noted in a recent report. Instead, a number of financial institutions have added any interest amounts not covered by the borrowers’ payments to the principal amount outstanding and extended their amortizations – the time it takes to fully pay off the mortgage. These borrowers, though, will face payment shock at renewal, when lenders reset amortizations back to the original schedule, experts warn."
"Ankur Gupta pauses as he looks across the busy landscape in Melbourne's fast-growing west. 'This is the estate we were building our house in,' he said, gesturing towards the rows of construction fencing and earthmoving equipment. Although construction was yet to begin, the 40-year-old IT worker had invested significantly with the major home builder before its disastrous collapse in March. He was only weeks away from signing a formal contract, and his $20,000 payment was also uninsured. 'We thought there was a ray of hope and once a support package is already announced, I'm not sure the government is going to go back on its word to amend that package,' he said. 'It's literally a hope gone. It's quite difficult to fathom.'"
"Justin King, who had hoped his new build would comfortably house his growing children, said those rising costs combined with the lost money would force his family to compromise on their home. 'I can't walk away from $18,000. It doesn't happen,' he said. 'It's too much money under mortgage stress and everything else that's going on. $18,000 is extra payments on the mortgage; it's three holidays away; it's $18,000 my kids shouldn't have to go without.'"
"The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise the cash rate another 25 basis points to 4.1 per cent has dismayed many experts who now warn that a large number of mortgage-holders will now be facing 'terrible pain.' 'I’m already meeting daily with people who now drive Ubers before work, do their regular job and then clean offices later in the evening just to be able to afford their mortgages in metropolitan Sydney,' said property advisor Anna Porter. 'Then, at weekends, they rent out their homes on Airbnb and go and stay with their families just to earn a little extra income. A lot of families are already really hurting, and now this will put them in terrible pain.'"