The Unseen Hazards Faced By Wile E. Coyote
A report from Business Insider. "Realtor.com has re-examined its previous housing market predictions for this year and pointed them in the opposite direction. 'We made a bold call that home prices wouldn't go down in 2023, and with the latest data, we're revising that projection,' Chief Economist Danielle Hale said in the report. Earlier in the year, West Coast cities saw prices plunge as much as 10%. More apartments are coming to the market, easing rental shortages, Realtor.com said. For instance, completed multifamily construction projects expanded 24% year over year in April, according to Redfin."
The Columbian in Washington. "You’ve heard it time and time again: Clark County has too many buyers and not enough homes. But in May, there were some silver linings for prospective buyers; 864 new listings were added to the housing market, an increase of nearly 40 percent from April. Compared with May 2022, new pending sales are down more than 31 percent. Closing sales also decreased more than 15 percent from April. On a month-to-month comparison, median sale prices — which only include residential home sales — decreased to $515,000, a 2.5 percent drop from the average of $525,000 in March."
The Denver Post in Colorado. "Midwestern apartment markets are now some of the most popular in the country as people place affordability over the hipness associated with one-time draws like Austin, Texas, Seattle and Silicon Valley, according to a report from RentCafe.com. Several markets that were hot prior to the pandemic have lost momentum. Seattle ranked 42nd; San Jose, Calif., ranked 70th; Austin ranked 97th; Boise City, Idaho, ranked 105th, and San Francisco ranked 128th. The bottom five markets for apartment searches were Cape Coral, Fla.; Ontario, Calif.; Laredo, Texas; Fontana, Calif., and Salem, Ore."
"One concern is that developers have concentrated their efforts too heavily on yesterday’s hot markets, and less so on the ones that apartment portals like Rent.com show people have shifted their attention to. But that could help push down rents in the months ahead. Oversupply could exacerbate the softness in markets like Denver; Phoenix; Austin; Nashville, Tenn.; Raleigh, N.C.; Jacksonville, Fla.; San Jose; San Francisco and Portland, Ore., predicted Caitlin Sugrue Walter, vice president of research at the NMHC."
Bisnow Los Angeles in California. "Los Angeles County’s multifamily market is slowing. It’s a phenomenon playing out across the country. Asking rents for new leases rose slightly less than 2% in the 12 months ending May 2023, a sharp contrast to the double-digit increases of 2022. The widespread nature of the rent growth slowdown doesn’t seem to be comforting those in the multifamily business. 'Rents have remained stagnant year over year, concerning investors and landlords in addition to high inflation and interest rates,' a report from NAI Capital reads."
"The number of units sold has dropped by 64.3% compared to Q2 2022, 'as investors have retreated due to tight credit conditions and a disparity in prices between sellers and buyers, resulting in a transactional standoff,' the report states. Higher borrowing costs, inflation and perceptions of weaker growth and greater risks in the market are taking a toll. Preliminary Q2 2023 figures show that every submarket in LA County has seen a decline in the median sale price per unit compared to this time last year, NAI Capital found. The submarket that NAI Capital uses to cover LA’s Westside saw per-unit prices for apartment buildings fall 35.2% compared to Q2 2022."
The Pioneer Press in Minnesota. "When management consultant Sherry Johnson co-chaired a neighborhood task force looking at all the vacant properties on St. Paul’s popular Grand Avenue business corridor, she was taken aback to discover how many spaces were owned by the same out-of-state pension fund — the State Teachers Retirement System of Ohio. The retirement system has kept some of the three-mile corridor’s largest retail areas empty rather than lower rents and negotiate with small, local businesses. 'All those Lululemons and J. Crews are not coming back, and now we’re just stuck with all these empty husks of buildings,' Johnson said. 'Personally, I’m just wondering if they’re waiting to sell them to a developer.'"
"At a time when public pension funds across the nation are increasing their real estate investments to balance volatility in the tech sector and other risks, St. Paul has become an illustrative example of out-of-state control over neighborhood commercial hubs. STRS Ohio lost some $5 billion last year, and then even more money when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed."
The Wall Street Journal. "The world’s central banks raced at an extraordinary pace over the past year to cool inflation, but it hasn’t proved enough—yet. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee compared the potential coming impact of the Fed’s 5 percentage points in rate increases to the unseen hazards faced by Wile E. Coyote, the unlucky cartoon character. 'If you raise 500 basis poits in one year, is there a huge rock that’s just floating overhead…that’s going to drop on us?' he said."
From Reuters. "The world's central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), called on Sunday for more interest rate hikes, warning the world economy was now at a crucial point as countries struggle to rein in inflation. Despite the relentless rise in rates over the last 18 months, inflation in many top economies remains stubbornly high, while the jump in borrowing costs triggered the most serious banking collapses since the financial crisis 15 years ago. 'The global economy is at a critical juncture. Stern challenges must be addressed,' Agustin Carstens, BIS general manager, said in the organisation's annual report. 'The time to obsessively pursue short term growth is past. Monetary policy must now restore price stability. Fiscal policy must consolidate.'"
"Commenting further on the economic picture, Carstens, former head of Mexico's central bank, said the emphasis was now on policymakers to act. 'Unrealistic expectations that have emerged since the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic about the degree and persistence of monetary and fiscal support need to be corrected,' he said."
From Bloomberg. "Some Canadians have extended the amortization period on their mortgages, and real estate experts say it could bring uncertainty for renewals. Amortization refers to the time it takes to pay back a mortgage. As elevated interest rates hit the housing market, some people have been extending their amortization period out several decades and are only paying interest on their homes. 'These extended amortizations, this is really just a temporary Band-Aid solution, which in my view is preventing mortgage defaults,' said Danie Vyner, the principal broker at DV Capital. 'In other words, if somebody was in an adjustable-rate mortgage where each time this prime rate continued to hike, and they weren't able to afford these mortgage payments, the mortgage would be in default.'"
"Vyner said that well-capitalized borrowers that have fixed-rate variable mortgage payments are generally not fazed by extended amortization periods. However, he said they understand the 'free ride' will end and they will need to 'increase these payments or pay down principal.' 'But there are many people that I speak to, (who) are realizing when the maturity date of their mortgage comes and they're going to be expected to either pay down principal or increase this mortgage payment, they're not going to be able to afford this mortgage payment,' Vyner said. Those who are unable to afford their payments may need to explore their options, Vyner said, which could include things like selling their home, repurchasing or seeking alternative financing. 'At renewal, it's judgment day, and we're going to see if these homeowners are able to make their payments or not,' he said."
From Sky News. "The UK's property values are expected to continue declining until the second half of 2025 as a hike in interest rates affects mortgages. A couple from Chorleywood said they have been left 'reeling' after almost £700 was added to their mortgage - and fear this could end up even higher after today's announcement from the Bank of England. Cathy, 60, and Jim Patton, 61, say they have pleaded with their mortgage company to give them 'breathing space' as they try to sell their home."
"In June 2021 the couple took a two-year fixed-rate interest-only mortgage at 1.19%. 'We knew we’d need to repay the mortgage within the next eight years so my husband retired just over a year ago. We put our house on the market in January and we weren’t too worried as we’d assumed it would sell quickly. But it hasn’t and now we are in a panic with the new rate being raised from £218 to £894.' With the rest of their bills, plus food, they say they are facing a £150 a month shortfall. 'I’ve sent the mortgage company a letter outlining our situation but haven’t heard back,' Cathy said."
Daily Mail Australia. "New data has revealed the surprising suburbs in each state where Aussies can get their hands on a home for the same price they would have paid in 2013. Units and houses in several suburbs around Australia have stayed at similar median prices for the last 10 years largely due to more availability of accommodation. Deniliquin, a small town near Echucha on the NSW-Victoria border, was severely hit by floods in the 2022 record weather event. The devastation has caused the median price in the town to fall to the same price as in 2013 with units at $146,500. The median price of a house in Cobar, a mining town in central NSW, has fallen by four per cent since 2013 to $200,000."
"The biggest dip in median unit prices around the state was recorded in Travancore. In 2013 the median price for a unit in Travancore sat at $501,250 but has fallen by an incredible 33 per cent to just $338,000 in 2023. Median prices have stayed the most consistent in regional areas of Queensland. The biggest property market falls in the state when comparing 2013 to 2023 were, by far, in the Gladstone region. In 2013 the median price of a unit in Gladstone Central was $472,500 but dropped by 51 per cent compared to 2023 with the median price now $230,000. In 2013 the median price of a unit in Gladstone Central was $472,500 but dropped by 51 per cent compared with 2023, with the median price now $230,000."
"Similar falls can be seen in the town's coastal regions with house price in Barney Point falling by 25 per cent. Several rural areas around Queensland have also suffered steep median price declines. Units in Emerald, 270km west of Rockhampton, fell by 43 per cent to $200,000 and houses in outback hub Longreach dropped by 12 per cent to $225,000. Unit prices in Hackham, in Adelaide's south, saw the second biggest drop in the entire state with the median in 2013 sitting at $229,500 while the 2023 median dropped by 35 per cent to $150,000."
The Investor. "Vietnam should restructure its real estate market towards reducing high-end housing and increasing social housing, including housing for workers, National Assembly member Tran Van Khai said Friday. He said people were hoping that the amendments would help remove the mindset that trading land was the most profitable business and provide coming generations with more opportunities to realize their dream of owning a house. 'If government policies do not feature timely and effective solutions, there may be a financial crisis, or even more seriously, an economic crisis,' he said, noting that many real estate businesses were on the verge of bankruptcy."
"In a previous group discussion, National Assembly Economic Committee Chairman Vu Hong Thanh had acknowledged that Vietnam’s real estate market was unbalanced. The housing segment worth several hundreds of millions of Vietnamese dong (VND100 million = $4,250) a square meter was abundant, while that for low-income people was very scanty, he said."
"Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, senior manager of residential project marketing at CBRE Vietnam, said that last year, apartment supply hit 22,000-24,000 units, half of which came in the first two quarters. But this cart did not contain affordable housing, causing a scarcity in this segment at the end of the year. Many developers have plans to launch luxury and super luxury apartments, Kiet noted, adding that this could lead to a higher price range in the future."