Sky-High Mortgage Rates And Slipping Prices Have Turned What Seemed Like Surefire Investments Into Money Pits
A report from the San Francisco Chronicle in California. "In a historic trophy building overlooking breathtaking San Francisco views, 1360 Montgomery, Unit 12, is a penthouse condo for sale perched on Telegraph Hill. After a long stint on the market, it’s now for sale at $2 million — $999,999 less than its original list price. 'In regards to the price adjustment, our objective is to figure out the market value for the current market conditions,' said listing agent David Bartels of Everhome Realty. 'Because the SF market has gotten so soft and seems to be getting softer, rather than chasing the market down with smaller price adjustments, I recommended a steep price adjustment to attract buyers and increase showings.'"
The Real Deal on Illinois. "A California real estate investor purchased a 268-unit apartment building in Streeterville at a steep discount. Irvine, Calif.-based Trinity Property Consultants bought the Seneca, a 17-story building at 200 East Chestnut Street for $55 million, according to a Cook County deed transfer. The building was sold by New York-based Vanbarton Group, a real estate investor that has holdings in residential, retail, office and hospitality properties. Vanbarton paid $74.9 million for the property in December 2014, marking a 26 percent decrease in the value of the property. The property traded hands for about $205,000 a unit, making it one of the best values a buyer has gotten for Chicago multifamily in premier Near North Side downtown submarkets in recent years."
"In another recent loss in value on a Streeterville apartment complex, Miami-based Crescent Heights paid $173 million for the 400-unit apartment tower at 340 East North Water Street, handing the seller Invesco a big loss from its 2016 purchase of the asset for $240 million."
From Florida Realtors. "Commercial real estate lenders are dusting off old playbooks to deal with a growing pipeline of bad loans. Earlier this month, Westfield made headlines when it confirmed that it was handing back the keys to the San Francisco Center, which backs about $560 million in CMBS (commercial backed securities) loans. It’s just one example of recent anecdotes of owners walking away from assets, but in many more cases lenders are hoping to get borrowers back to the bargaining table to work out solutions that don’t end in dreaded 'jingle mail.'"
"'There is a lot of talk about office, but people are going to be surprised about the disruption they see in sectors such as multifamily that people were not expecting,' says Scott Larson, managing principal, Pangea Mortgage Capital in Chicago. In the past few years, there was some aggressive buying with business plans that would work only if a sponsor was able to precisely hit every piece of their projections. They may not have accounted for higher debt costs or softening fundamentals that some markets are experiencing, he adds."
"One strategy for a distressed owner is to sell an asset before the loan matures. Ten-X is seeing potential deals of this type for its auction platform. However, the expected valuations aren’t always meeting an owner’s expectations. 'You can’t bring a deal to our platform hoping for a miracle or a magic show,' says Joseph Cuomo, a senior managing director at Ten-X. Ten-X also is getting calls from owners who have their lenders in tow. Rather than going through a lengthy workout or REO process, both sides have agreed to sell the asset and jointly cut their losses. 'We’re seeing more of what I would call a lender-involved short sale,' notes Cuomo. There is a recognition that the borrower has lost equity and the lender also is going to take a loss, but there is a willingness for both sides to come together to expedite a resolution, he adds."
The Globe and Mail. "Real estate brokers say they are also seeing things slow down after a rush of sales in the spring. Paul Maranger, broker at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, has seen an increase in listings in recent weeks, but he said overall supply is still thin. He said prospective buyers who were concerned about the health of the economy and the impact on their business put sales on hold. 'I think you can only hold back in Toronto for a certain period of time. Then you have to move forward.' He predicts some homeowners who have been struggling with higher interest rates and inflation may decide to sell, but he’s not expecting a flood of supply. 'We’ll see anxiety sales,' he said. 'But we’re not going to see panicked sales with silly low prices.'"
The Daily Hive in Canada. "Sky-high mortgage rates and slipping condo prices in Toronto have turned what seemed like surefire investments into money pits, evidenced in a recent listing for a condo in one of the city’s most luxurious buildings. A condo purchased in 2021 for north of $2 million is now up for sale at less than two-thirds of that price. Located in the St. Regis Residences at Bay and Adelaide, this 47th-floor, two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit is currently listed for just over $1.5 million under Power of Sale, suggesting the owner may have bit off more than they could chew for an investment property."
Landlord Today in the UK. "A prominent buying agent says nervous buyers are pre-emptively slashing asking prices before the housing market worsens. Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of Garrington Property Finders, says: 'We’re starting to see a shift in pricing behaviour. As the summer slowdown approaches, some pragmatic sellers are recalibrating their aspirations by cutting prices pre-emptively to get ahead of the market, rather than slicing off thousands in response to a low offer. In some areas double-digit price reductions are now not uncommon, with regions that saw the frothiest excesses during the boom, as well as those with high levels of Help to Buy ownership, seeing some of the sharpest price falls. For many sellers this will be a bitter pill to swallow, albeit one that is preferable to the limbo of having their home sit unsold for months before they cut the price anyway.'"
The NL Times. "Housing prices in the Netherlands plunged by 8.9 percent from the peak of about 451,000 euros set in the second quarter of 2022. Now one year later, the sales price of an owner-occupied home averaged 410,000 euros, according to an analysis of the housing market by realtor association NVM. The decline is the sharpest ever measured by the organization, a spokesperson told newswire ANP. Existing home sales prices were down compared to a year ago regardless of the style of home. Apartment sales dropped by 9.4 percent to 342,000 euros. Terraced homes were sold for an average of 374,000 euros, down 7.1 percent in a year. Corner homes sold at 397,000 euros, down 8.4 percent. Semi-detached homes were valued at 438,000 euros, a fall of 9.8 percent. Fully detached houses were sold at 589,000 euros, an 11.1 percent fall."
From News.com.au. "Experts polled in Finder.com.au’s monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey said more distressed sales was a looming risk for the market. It comes as a whopping 41 per cent of Aussie mortgagees surveyed in the comparison groups monthly Consumer Sentiment Tracker revealed that they struggled to pay their home loan in June. This was the highest proportion recorded since Finder began tracking the question in 2019. The finding came on the back of a data release from regulator APRA that showed mortgage defaults increased to $15 billion worth of home loans in March 2023."
"Stella Huangfu from the University of Sydney told the Finder survey that investors may be vulnerable too. 'Mortgage rates (are) typically 2-3 per cent higher than the RBA’s cash rate. At the moment the cash rate is 4.1 per cent, which means we are looking at mortgage rates between 6-7 per cent. For investors, rental income is not enough to cover such a high mortgage rate. I expect to see a significant increase on defaults of both investment loans and owner-occupied home loans very soon.'"
Newshub New Zealand. "A new report out by CoreLogic shows Aotearoa's housing market downswing "continues to roll on" as the decline in property values accelerated in June. The report indicates the monthly decline in property prices was led by weaker figures in Auckland, down 3.0 percent for the month, with four out of six of Aotearoa's main centres recording larger falls in June. CoreLogic says the decline takes the national annual rate of change 10.6 percent below the same time in 2022, from 10.2 percent in May. Aotearoa's average house value remains $183,000 higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. But head of research Nick Goodall says the fall from the peak now exceeds $130,000. He said that shows just how strong the 'pandemic-induced growth upswing' was."
The Phnom Penh Post. "The Real Estate Business and Pawnshop Regulator (RPR), a body under the Ministry of Economy and Finance, reported that from June 9-26, they received a total of 339 requests for intervention by people whose homes – either boreis or condos – had been seized or repossessed by developers when they failed to make the repayments that were due. Mao Pov, RPR’s head of license management and legal affairs department, told The Post on June 26 that 229 complaints were reported to his regulatory body, while the other 110 were reported to The Council for the Development of Cambodia. The push to resolve cases where homes have been confiscated follows a call from Prime Minister Hun Sen. Instead of moving straight to confiscation, Hun Sen encouraged developers to extend repayment periods."
"'This means no one would have to suffer the loss of their home, and the developers would not be disadvantaged. They would actually benefit, as they will be able to collect interest from their buyers for longer,' he said."
The South China Morning Post. "Hong Kong's government has defied market expectations by announcing it will sell only two plots of residential land in the second quarter of the financial year - about half the number forecast by some analysts. Analysts suggested the surprisingly small offering of land in the second quarter may reflect the gloomy market conditions, though the government denied this was a factor in its decision. A rapid succession of interest rate increases has cast a long shadow over a growing property oversupply that is being exacerbated by newly built flats coming onto the market."
"'Developers' bidding offers will be conservative,' said Dave Ma, chief executive of Hong Kong Property Services. 'There has likely not been much profit generated by home sales from construction sites bought in recent years. I believe they want a good price when bidding for land now. You would not buy at the price of two or three years ago, nobody wants to do loss-making business.'"
From Bloomberg. "Fresh signs emerged Wednesday that China is facing yet more challenges in its property debt crisis. Defaulted developer Shimao Group Holdings Ltd. failed to find a buyer for a $1.8 billion project at a forced auction, even at a heavy discount. Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd. saw its bonds tumble on news that the state-backed builder told some creditors it’s been working with two major shareholders on its debt load. The nation’s second-largest developer by sales, China Vanke Co., said last week that the home market is 'worse than expected,' joining a chorus of investors and analysts who have become bearish on the sector."
"No buyers bid for Shimao’s land portfolio in Shenzhen, even though the asset was offered at a price 20% lower than its appraised value, according to results posted on online auction site JD.com. That will likely add hurdles to Shimao’s debt restructuring, Bloomberg Intelligence property analysts Kristy Hung and Lisa Zhou wrote in a note. The developer’s onshore commercial property unit purchased the land — spanning an area equivalent to 34 football fields — in 2017 for 24 billion yuan ($3.3 billion), a record in Shenzhen at the time."
"Its original plan was to build a landmark complex with a 500-meter skyscraper, but the project ran into trouble last year after the company missed some payments on high-yield trust products used to fund the construction. Citic Trust Co., which manages the trust project, seized the asset and sued Shimao’s unit, according to the auction documents and Shimao’s company filing. Sino-Ocean bonds slumped further Wednesday, putting prices at just half their start-of-week levels. A 2 billion yuan onshore note due next month, the company’s next maturity, plunged 34.6% and saw trading suspended twice. A Sino-Ocean dollar bond due 2024 fell to a record low at about 15 cents."