A Sharp Reversal Of Fortune After An Era Of Cheap Money Ended
A report from the Arizona Republic. "During the second quarter, about 30 Phoenix-area ZIP codes saw home prices fall. In the first quarter, about 75 Phoenix-area ZIP codes posted declines in median home prices, compared with roughly 100 during 2022’s last quarter. Areas where prices fell also span the Valley and range in cost. Home prices also fell by double-digit percentages in central Mesa, Phoenix and Scottsdale. Glendale, Sun City and Carefree, as well as other parts of Phoenix and Mesa, saw single-digit home price declines during the second quarter. Paradise Valley, Maricopa County's most expensive region, saw median prices drop about 5%."
The Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. "A freeze has descended upon real estate development in Philadelphia, even as cranes dot the sky in Northern Liberties, University City, and parts of downtown. Many of the ambitious developments unveiled over the last year are paused, if not outright canceled. At 42nd and Market Street, in University City, Alterra Property Group has scrapped plans for a 352-unit modular apartment building. '42nd and Market is not moving forward,' said Leo Addimando, managing partner with Alterra, based in Philadelphia. 'The combination of land cost, construction costs, interest rates, scarcity [of] debt capital for development, and rents don’t make for a viable project.'"
"Alterra isn’t alone. None of the projects The Inquirer spotlighted last summer, such as the Goldenberg Group’s 468-unit proposed tower at Broad and Lombard Streets, have broken ground yet. 'We’re definitely seeing the pullback in private spending,' said Lyndsey Christofer, head of real estate with the Philadelphia-based insurance giant Chubb. 'We’ve seen more projects be delayed before the shovels have gone into the ground. We will see more of that.' The so-called Riverwards neighborhoods of Northern Liberties, Fishtown, and parts of Kensington have seen so much new development that lenders such OceanFirst are concerned that new apartments won’t be able to command the rents that would allow them to profit and pay their loans back."
From Fortune. "Boise's meteoric rise to prominence as a Zoomtown during the pandemic was nothing short of remarkable. However, this euphoria was tempered by last year's rapid hike in mortgage rates, which pushed Boise's housing market into a correction. The aftermath was a 12.8% drop in Boise home prices between May 2022 and January 2023, according to Freddie Mac. There's another reason that markets like Boise—and Austin—are at higher risk of further house price declines: Those overheated markets actually have some inventory."
"In Boise, active listings in June 2023 were only down 13% from June 2019, while also up 80% from June 2021 (i.e., at the height of the frenzy). The presence of relatively higher levels of existing inventory for sale in Boise and Austin implies that these markets are more prone to experiencing price softening."
The Herald Tribune in Florida. "According to Coldwell Banker Realty Realtor Sheryl VanDuren, who is based out of the Longboat Key office, 'Many sellers still believe we are in a market that is bringing multiple offers or even full price offers. Here in the Sarasota/Manatee market, we are seeing around 3-4 months of inventory and price 'improvements' on many listings. If a seller takes the professional advice from their Realtor and that agent thoroughly does homework to come up with a competitive list price, the home will most likely go under contract in 30 days or so.'"
Community Impact in Texas. "Local real estate firm officials said hundreds of thousands of square feet of offices are vacant across Austin in spaces that are both directly leased and subleased. The trend has continued from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic through this summer; data from Aquila Commercial shows overall office vacancies in the city have increased by nearly 2 1/2 times since mid-2020. 'Everybody’s questioning where are things going with the economy in general. Where’s the job market going? We’re all paying attention to that, and then you throw in the hybrid work model; we’re just in this weird space,' said CBRE office broker John Gump said. 'So you have lack of demand and you have increased availability. I think everybody’s just looking for a little direction in general. We’re all kind of waiting for that, it feels like, and we may not get it.'"
The Mercury News in California. "Construction has paused on a huge tech campus in downtown San Jose amid a feeble Bay Area office sector, dealing a fresh blow to the city’s already wobbly urban heart. Boston Properties has decided to hit the pause button on its Platform 16 tech campus in downtown San Jose, the real estate titan’s top boss told Wall Street analysts. 'Unfortunately, market conditions in the Silicon Valley, including San Jose, have deteriorated meaningfully,' Owen Thomas, chief executive officer of Boston Properties, said during the call to discuss the company’s second-quarter financial results."
"Among the factors that haunt the now-scary Silicon Valley commercial real estate market: rising office vacancy rates, a surge in sublease space being placed on the market by tech companies, and nearly nonexistent demand for large hunks of office space. During the April-through-June second quarter of 2023, office vacancy levels reached all-time high levels in four key Bay Area markets: 31.8% in downtown San Francisco, 35.7% in downtown Oakland, 29.9% in downtown San Jose and 21.6% in Silicon Valley, according to separate reports from commercial real estate firms Cushman & Wakefield and CBRE. 'Vacancy rates are some of the highest that we have seen in a couple of decades with no end in sight,' David Taxin, partner with Meacham Oppenheimer, a commercial real estate firm."
The Real Deal on California."San Francisco’s Department of Homeless and Supportive Housing has entered negotiations on a lease to create homeless housing at an industrial site off Bayshore that would put 60 cabins and about 20 safe parking RV spots at the 2.25-acre site of a former drywall contractor. Scott Mason — an industrial agent whose own business, Calco Commercial, is located three blocks from the proposed site — said all the nearby business owners that he has spoken to are strongly against the project. He said the formerly 'very bright, vibrant' neighborhood where he has run his business for 35 years now looks like 'Beirut after a bombing' — issues he attributes to the Bayshore Navigation Center and Bayview Safe Navigation Center coming to the area."
"Increased break-ins, drug use, drug dealing, human feces and urine on the street, fire risk from propane tanks and an 'ungodly amount of trash' are all the results of problems within those two shelters spilling onto the streets around it, he said. On a recent walk of the neighborhood, he counted 76 RVs and about 50 tents where there had been just a handful five years ago. 'It’s a disaster,' he said. 'It’s becoming very difficult for people to conduct business in any kind of a normal fashion.'"
The New York Post. "After some six years for sale, downtown Manhattan’s 'Pinnacle' penthouse — a residence housed inside the iconic copper top of the famed Woolworth Building — has traded hands for $30 million, far less than the aerie’s original $110 million asking price."
Blog TO in Canada. "Even if realtors and developers want to believe that Toronto's real estate market is holding strong in the face of record inflation and sky-high interest rates, the steep downturn in sales volumes — and now, declining prices — tell a different story. Analyses of certain sectors of the market show that prices for new condos just dropped for the first time in a decade in the last quarter, and the 12-month running total for new condo sales sunk to the lowest level since 2009. Looking at the same data points from 2022, we can see that there had been 51,940 sales by this time last year, with an average price of $1,239,104 (per TRREB's news release, though it is noteworthy that the 2022 charts in their actual report skew slightly different, showing a YTD average price of $1,222,174 by July). That's a fall of nearly 10,000 sales and $100,000 in the typical price, showing how much quieter the market has been this year."
The Telegraph in the UK. "More than a third (37pc) of London-based first-time buyers have left the capital to purchase a home – the highest level since 2018. Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, said: 'The likelihood that mortgage rates will stay higher for longer may keep the pace of London outmigration up.' She said many households who bought a home at the peak of the London market between 2014 and 2016 may be looking to move over the next few years. Ms Beveridge added: 'With property prices in parts of the capital lower today than when they bought, trading the city for a cheaper area outside the M25 might be the only option for those needing to upsize.'"
From Extra. "A decade of financial pain could be in store for mortgage holders with Leo Varadkar stating that rising interest rates could persist for 10 years. After a series of nine rate hikes by the European Central Bank, adding up to a €6,000 annual extra cost for some Irish households, the Taoiseach said rates of 3% to 5% may become the norm for the next five or 10 years. Rates are now at their highest level since 2000, rising to 4.25%, while the Taoiseach has said they could hit 5%, and be almost on a par with soaring interest rates in England, which have hit 5.25%. Mr Varadkar said the long period of low interest rates has come to an end. He said: ‘We had a prolonged period of very low interest rates… It might be the case that interest rates of 3% to 5% become the norm for the next five or 10 years and we need to bear that in mind. We had a very prolonged period of very low interest rates in Europe. That was unusual and that has now come to an end.’"
"Sinn Féin finance spokesman Pearse Doherty warned that many mortgage holders risk falling into arrears. Mr Doherty said: ‘This is a massive income shock for households. The Central Bank estimates that one in five households will see their annual mortgage costs spiral by more than €5,700 as a result of these rate hikes, with two in five seeing their annual mortgage costs rise by more than €3,000.' ECB president Christine Lagarde said the bank’s next move to beat inflation would be guided by the data and ‘on the basis of that, we will determine whether we hike or whether we pause’. She warned: ‘What I can assure you of is that we’re not going to cut. That is a definite no.'"
From Reuters. "Germany's largest real estate group Vonovia slipped to a 2 billion euro ($2.19 billion) second quarter loss and wrote down the value of its properties by 3 billion euros on Thursday in the latest sign of stress in the country's property sector. After a decade-long property boom, Germany is undergoing a sharp reversal of fortune after an era of cheap money ended."
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. "More than $500 million worth of major Sydney housing development projects are poised to hit the market as fugitive Jean Nassif’s failed property empire is rapidly dismantled by major lenders seeking quick sales to recoup debt. Thousands of anxious apartment owners living in Toplace buildings are concerned that nothing will be left over for them to fix serious defects as the big lenders move to offload Toplace assets to reduce their own losses. 'The owners’ worst fear … is that any legitimate claim or opportunity to claw back funds for defective work is gobbled up by secured creditors,' said a source close to one of the owner’s corporations."
"The Herald revealed this week that court documents have detailed Nassif’s failed property empire has debts of more than $1.24 billion, including $88.5 million to suppliers and tradespeople. In June, a warrant was issued for Nassif’s arrest over an alleged $150 million fraud relating to falsified sales contracts to secure a $150 million Westpac loan on Toplace’s Skyview development in Castle Hill. While Nassif is believed to be in Lebanon, his daughter Ashlyn, 29, has had her legal practising certificate suspended while she fights the same fraud charges."
"While Nassif has appointed administrators dVT Group to manage most of his crumbling empire, the banks and finance companies, who have mortgages over a number of development blocks, as well as unsold apartments in existing buildings, have moved quickly to appoint receivers to protect their interests. Among the projects poised for a quick sale is Nassif’s grand plan for the Box Hill City Centre in the city’s rapidly growing north-west. But all that now exists is a muddy basement in a field. Work has stopped, the project’s social media accounts have fallen silent and the phone number for apartment sales is rerouted to a person who said they had no knowledge of the project and hung up."
"In one Toplace apartment block in Charles Street, Canterbury, the NSW Building Commissioner has issued urgent rectification orders which identify inadequate beams and support columns. Left unfixed, these could result in the 'inability to inhabit' the building or even its collapse. The owners’ corporation, representing 276 owners, has been left with a rectification bill of $16 million but the final cost could be much more. Real estate records reflect that the apartment block has already been a financial disaster for purchasers, who from 2014 paid between $445,000 and $750,000 for their apartments."
"There has not been a sale in that block for almost two years and all but one resale has resulted in serious losses. One apartment, purchased for $590,000 in November 2016, was on the market for two years before finally selling for only $500,000 in June 2021. 'Now I am so, so stressed and so worried that the building might collapse and hurt my tenants and I’m going to have to go back to work overseas to make more money to help pay for all this trouble,' Margaret Wong, who bought an apartment in the complex off the plan."