It Feels Like You’re Paying Into Nothing
A report from ABC News. "Sky-high mortgage rates have helped slam the brakes on the housing market, recent data shows. The home resale market, meanwhile, slowed in July to its lowest rate since 2010, National Association of Realtors data showed on Tuesday. Contrasting the current market with the low-mortgage rate environment that took hold during the COVID-19 pandemic, Bess Freedman, the CEO of real estate firm Brown Harris Stevens, told ABC News: 'It's not champagne and caviar anymore. The party is over.'"
The Bradenton Herald in Florida. "In July, for the third consecutive month, the sales of existing single-family homes in the Bradenton area increased while the median price fell. Sales were up 10% to 624 homes, while the median price fell 1.2% to $515,000, compared to the same month a year ago, the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee reported Tuesday. In May, more homes changed hands in the Bradenton area than in any month since June 2021 while the median price fell 6.4% to $515,000. The trend continued in June with 17.7% more homes — 759 — selling than in the same month a year ago. June also saw a decline in the median price from $550,000 to $525,000."
"The median number of days from the listing date to contract date continues to increase year-over-year. Manatee homes went under contract within a median of 29 days, a 222.2% increase from last year. The condo market showed the highest number of days from listing date to contract date since 2020, with 47 days reported in Manatee County (a 422% increase) and 36 days reported in Sarasota County (a 260% increase)."
The Dallas Morning News. "Two Dallas-area cities are rated as the best real estate markets in the country. And four of the six top U.S. property markets are in North Texas, according to WalletHub. It’s no surprise three of Collin County’s fastest growth cities are at the top of the real estate ranking. Real estate costs in the area are moderating after several years of soaring prices. D-FW area home prices were down 1% year-over-year in the latest survey. 'There is no crash coming, and it is too expensive to boom anything. What we see is that exorbitant increases are stabilizing, and the entire housing market is getting less volatile and more predictable,' San Jose State University professor Kelly Snider said in the report. 'That is good for the economy and good for employers who want a stable cohort of employees. The housing recalibration is very good for long-term stability in the U.S.'"
From Market Place. "Existing home sales for July were way down, about 17% from a year ago, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. A familiar refrain is reentering the chat for would-be homebuyers: 'Well, you can always refinance.' Date the rate, marry the house, aka eat the high monthly payment to get a foot in the door and then refinance after the Federal Reserve declares inflation officially whipped. Sacramento real estate agent Erin Stumpf isn’t a fan. Stumpf said even if mortgages get cheaper, so might homes, which would complicate a refi. And she’s still scarred from that 'you can always refinance' mantra that contributed to the foreclosure crisis. 'You know, 2007 was 16 years ago. I think that maybe has faded a bit from people’s memories a little bit more, but I certainly remember what it was like,' Stumpf said."
CBS Sacramento in California. "Rising mortgage interest rates are having a dramatic impact on the Sacramento region's real estate market. Last week, the interest for a 30-year mortgage rose above 7.3%. Rates have not been this high since the year 2001, back when the cost of a home in Sacramento was a lot lower. 'The median price was just under $200,000 and that's even hard to comprehend since now it's about $590,000,' said Ryan Lundquist, a Sacramento real estate analyst. 'I think that almost everyone got their rate predictions wrong this year.' Real estate experts say about 40% of home sellers are also making concessions on the price for repairs, rate buydowns, and closing costs."
The Real Deal on Illinois. "Record-seekers are getting real and buyers are holding out in Chicagoland’s high-end home market. The result has been another round of big money price cuts on luxury homes from Bucktown and the Gold Coast to the North Shore and out to the western suburbs, as sellers anxious to land deals before the wintertime market freeze show buyers they’re serious about wanting out. In Lake Forest, a buyer in recent days exited a deal that was struck last month for the 15,000-square-foot home at 255 North Green Bay Road when it was listed at $7.9 million, according to listing agent Jennifer Ames of Engel & Voelkers Chicago. Her client since decided to drop the price by another $500,000 last week to just less than $7.5 million for the 1934-built home designed by noted architect David Adler, one of multiple reductions for the listing."
"Sellers are keeping an eye on each other, too. Less than a block north of the Wicker Park listing, Jameson Sotheby’s International Realty agent Ryan Preuett has a client with a big Bucktown house at 1806 North Wood, where the ask has been dropped by nearly $300,000 to $4.5 million on the same day last week as Compass broker Brad Lippitz’s price cut. Preuett is also representing a Gold Coast listing at 1451 North Astor Street that shaved $505,000 off its asking price on Friday to just under $6 million. 'These are both higher end. Neither of them necessarily have to sell but they would both like to,' Preuett said."
Canadian Mortgage Trends. "Detached home prices in Toronto and Vancouver posting year-over-year declines in the first half of the year. RE/MAX found that detached homes in nearly 93% of the 82 districts it analyzed in both cities—which included downtown neighbourhoods and exurbs—were cheaper in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year. The exact amount varied between as little as 1.5% in West Vancouver to a whopping 25.6% in the Toronto exurb of Brock. In Toronto, prices in the district encompassing the Don Valley Village and Henry Farm neighbourhoods—among the cheapest in the downtown core—dropped by 10.8% to nearly $2 million in 2023. In the previous year, prices in the district had jumped by 17.4%, from $1.87 million to $2.1 million."
"Vancouver East saw an 8.1% price drop in 2023, but that followed last year’s whopping 17.3% price gain. And when it comes to towns outside of Toronto and Vancouver, the situation is even more stark. In the Whistler/Pemberton area, outside of Vancouver, detached home prices declined 24.8% between 2022 and 2023, according to RE/MAX data. However, they also rose by 39.3% the previous year, more than cancelling out any benefits from this year. Detached home prices in Orangeville, outside of Toronto, dropped by 14.3% in 2023, but they had shot up 26.47% the previous year."
"'When we start to compare them over three years, we see virtually no price reduction because of what pricing was in 2020-2021 to where it is today,' Elton Ash, executive vice-president of RE/MAX Canada, told CMT in an interview. 'Ultimately, if you purchased a home prior to 2020 and you sell today, you’re likely going to sell for higher than what you paid for it.'"
The I in the UK. "Heena Patel and her partner Demi D’Cunha were so excited to buy their first house together in November 2021. But fast-forward almost two years and it’s a bleak picture financially – a steep increase in their mortgage interest rate could mean they may have to sell their beloved home when their two-year fixed rate ends. The couple were paying £1,100 a month and are now facing finding an extra £800 when their payments shoot up to £1,900. One of the options the couple are considering is selling their house – which they bought for £398,000 – and moving back in with their parents – which Ms Patel says feels like a 'huge backward step' at age 29."
"'Over the next two-year period, our home would cost us an extra £20,000,' said the fashion buyer, from Lewisham, southeast London. 'That’s a hell of a lot of money. It’s devastating, we never expected this would happen with our very first home. That £20,000 is money we would have used to get married but those plans are having to go out the window now. We’re considering extending our mortgage terms but our mortgage adviser was against that. We’re also thinking about switching to interest only, but it feels like you’re paying into nothing.'"
From Reuters. "At an unfinished Country Garden residential complex on the outskirts of the northern Chinese metropolis of Tianjin, construction has slowed to a dull whirr and a few idle workers roam a near-empty site. 'They haven't paid us since Chinese New Year (in January). We are all worried,' said a labourer surnamed Wang, 50, who said he had stopped work at the Yunhe Shangyuan site last week. 'I'm under a lot of pressure,' said a worker at the Yunhe Shangyuan site surnamed Wei, also in his 50s, who added that he had only received a one-off living stipend of 4,500 yuan ($618) so far this year. 'I have a wife and kid who's about to return to school, as well as elderly parents … Workers can't live on this.'"
From Newsweek. "As real-estate developers struggle in a slowing market, local governments are losing money on their land sales, developing a concerning amount of debt. This debt, in turn, puts more pressure on Chinese banks and weakens the government's ability to improve its public services—exacerbating the risk of a financial crisis in the country. Land sales typically amount to 40 percent of local government. China's outstanding government debt was over 123 trillion yuan—or $18 trillion—last year. Almost $10 trillion of this was what's known as 'hidden debt,' contracted by local government by financing platforms backed by cities or provinces."
"'A working-age population that peaked in 2011 at more than 900 million will have declined by nearly a quarter, to some 700 million, by mid-century,' the Brookings Institute, a Washington-based nonprofit, wrote. 'These workers will have to provide by then for nearly 500 million Chinese aged 60 and over, compared with 200 million today. America's social security challenges seem like a policy picnic by comparison.'"
The New York Times. "As China faces another period of deep economic uncertainty, policymakers are drawing on elements of its crisis playbook, but with little sign of the same. More than 50 real estate developers have run out of money and defaulted or stopped payment on bonds. The companies have left behind hundreds of thousands of unfinished apartments that many predominantly middle-class families had already purchased, taking out mortgages to do so. results. It has become considerably harder for China to borrow and invest its way back to economic strength. 'The traditional way of stimulating the economy, through a credit boom and leveraging, has reached an end,' said Zhu Ning, a deputy dean of the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance."
"Apartments were bought as investments to rent out, including by many Chinese families who saw an opportunity to accumulate wealth. But as more and more apartments were built, their value as rentals declined. Investors were left with apartments whose rent wouldn't pay for their mortgages. Because rents are so low, many investors have not bothered to finish apartments over the past decade, holding newly built but hollow shells in the expectation of flipping them for ever-higher prices. By some estimates, Chinese cities now have 65 million to 80 million empty apartments. Prices for existing homes have fallen 14% in the past 24 months. Prices of new homes have not fallen as much, but only because local governments have told developers not to cut prices drastically. Sales of new homes have plunged as a result."
Channel News Asia in Malaysia. "A bustling, futuristic metropolis with spacecraft-shaped towers draped in greenery is what the area around the Forest City residential project in Johor Bahru should look like today. But it remains a mirage for Singaporean Chee Pei Lin, four years after moving into her two-bedroom apartment there that she paid RM700,000 (S$204,779) for in 2019. Ms Chee, who works in finance, adds that the recent news of the project developer’s parent company Country Garden in China edging towards financial default exacerbates her concerns."
"Specifically, she fears that construction for the remainder of the Forest City development may not be completed and that the area she lives in will continue to be a 'deserted ghost town.' 'The reports are very worrying. I think it raises a lot of questions (on) whether the developer in Malaysia also has cash flow problems, and if they will be able to finish what they planned to do?' she adds."
"According to news reports in Australia, the beleaguered China company is putting up for sale a 150-hectare undeveloped portion of its Windermere estate with an asking price of A$250 million (S$218 million). A report by Financial Review also quoted the developer as saying that it plans to 'divest' its last remaining project in Australia - the A$2 billion Wilton Greens Estate in Sydney."
"According to the developer, a total of 28,000 residential units have been completed and to date, around 9,000 residents live in Forest City. Forest City has also been infamously reported by various media outlets as a ghost town - in reference to how the area is largely deserted, with a large number of residential units remaining unoccupied. When CNA visited Forest City recently, the housing estates seemed quiet and mostly unoccupied. Singaporean Ms Chee, who lives in Ataraxia Park, tells CNA that she feels it will be 'extremely unlikely' that Forest City’s construction will be eventually completed."
"'What I’m concerned about is the impact on my property’s value. I bought the unit at around RM700,000 but now they are worth only (around) RM400,000,' adds Ms Chee, who bought the apartment partly for investment. 'I fear that with this news of potential default, the Malaysian developer will cease construction of the remainder of the project and we will see the value drop even more in the coming months.'"
"Another property owner Hong Li Wei, who owns a three-bedroom apartment at Starview Bay in Forest City, tells CNA that the recent financial woes will likely hit his rental rate. The Malaysian citizen bought the 1,130 sq ft property at around RM1 million in May 2019. With the lack of progress in construction of amenities near his estate, he fears he can no longer convince tenants to continue paying the same amount. 'The market rate for units of this size has dropped to around RM900 a month because the amenities around Forest City have not been built as promised. There are no major grocery stores or cineplexes in the estate,' says Mr Hong. 'When I read that Country Garden is having financial issues, I am afraid the rent may fall more and my investment would not be worth it anymore,' he adds."
"Singaporean Mr Mukhzin Hamid has also not received his strata title, despite having completed the purchase of his seaview three-bedroom apartment unit in 2015. He fears a scenario that his apartment may be seized by the government or liquidators. 'It seems unreal that this can happen to us. We have already paid hundreds of thousands of ringgit but something basic like the house deed cannot even be settled yet,' said the 52-year-old retiree."