Just The Beginning Of A Price War
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Some of the biggest names in commercial real-estate lending have all but turned off the spigot. Blackstone Mortgage Trust and KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, two of the biggest mortgage real-estate investment trusts, have halted loans to any new borrowers. While these firms continued to provide financing related to existing loans, they didn’t originate any new loans during the first half of this year, according to the companies. Starwood Property Trust, another lender in the sector, has greatly decreased its appetite for new lending in recent quarters, securities filings show."
"The remaining lenders in the market, including insurance companies and some nonbank lenders, now essentially have the field to themselves. 'Liquidity from the banks and the mortgage REITs is at its lowest we have seen in a very long time,' said Avi Shemesh, principal of CIM Group, which has a lending business with $12.5 billion in assets under management that remains active. 'We can pick and choose. We receive even better terms from [borrowers with] much better credit.'"
The Commercial Observer. "Phoenix’s office market tanked in the second quarter of this year, multifamily rents have stalled, and the city’s once-thriving industrial market faces a risk of an overabundance of space after the industrial absorption rate fell 80 percent in the last three months. 'It’s instability, and just as every other market is trying to find their footing right now, Phoenix is no different,' Jennifer Barili, senior research analyst at Transwestern Real Estate Services, told Commercial Observer. Barili isn’t wrong that every other city is struggling. Apartment sales in Los Angeles plummeted in the second quarter — dropping almost 49 percent year-to-date compared to the same time last year — while the nationwide vacancy rate for apartments ticked up to 5 percent."
"The country’s struggling real estate market has led to valuation woes coast to coast, and Kushner Companies’ Times Square retail condominium has topped one data provider’s list for the largest drop. The 238,557-square-foot 229 West 43rd Street saw its valuation plummet 82 percent — from $470 million to $84 million — nearly eight years after Kushner acquired the property, according to CRED iQ. It’s not just Kushner getting a downgrade on a property, but the entire country itself (literally). Fitch Ratings gave the U.S. government its first credit downgrade in 12 years last week. That move also led Fitch to downgrade the long-term debt of two government-sponsored entities — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — days later."
The Real Deal. "If Sun Belt multifamily owners had a crystal ball, many of them wouldn’t be in such dire straits. But new rental market data in Texas suggest that conditions may be clearing on the horizon. Some are starting to trend up, according to data from MRI ApartmentData. That means hope, perhaps short lived, for value-add multifamily shops that often factored in continued rent hikes for their Sun Belt assets in 2021 and early 2022, only to see growth fall off a cliff. Rents are down about 4 percent in Austin over the past 12 months. San Antonio is also an outlier, as it was the only Texas city to post negative absorption in the past year. The city is riding a wave of new development, with higher-quality units coming online to challenge existing supply. That can also be tough on rents."
"'People are moving out of the Class B, C and D stabilized product, and people are moving into the new product,' said Bruce McClenny, who leads ApartmentData. 'It has been a drain — the rents cannot hold.'"
From NBC News. "Rudy Tomarchio has been looking for a job for three months — and says time is running out before he'll deplete his savings. The 37-year-old Miami resident is looking for a management-level role, and recognizes that it is likely limiting his results. In the job market trenches, the slowdown has workers like Tomarchio on the verge of substantial lifestyle changes. He has already moved out of Miami’s tony Brickell neighborhood to a more reasonably priced rental apartment in nearby Wynwood, which has recently seen a glut of new apartment construction. 'I’m very urgently looking for a job, because I only have so many months of savings left before I cannot afford my rent or use my car,' he said."
The Messenger. "San Francisco has recovered just 32% of its downtown foot traffic since the start of the pandemic—dead last on a list of more than 60 major North American cities. The ranking, which was compiled based on anonymized cell phone data analyzed by the University of Toronto, comes as San Francisco has struggled with a large population of homeless people and drug users downtown—along with tech workers reluctant to return to their offices. Portland, which has similar problems, also ranked low on the list—with just 36% of people returning."
Axios on Oregon. "Foot traffic in downtown Portland is still lagging compared to pre-pandemic levels, despite ambitious development projects and various attempts by city officials to bring people back. City officials hope developments like the Ritz-Carlton, an extensive food cart pod revamp and the reconstruction of Darcelle XV Plaza (formerly O'Bryant Square) will help resuscitate downtown activity and combat petty crime, open-air drug use and a homelessness crisis. Dozens of businesses have left, or plan to leave, due to the rise in break-ins, robberies and vandalism."
"Meanwhile, some business owners don't believe a few building openings will solve downtown's many issues. 'It'll take a while because there's still a reluctance for people to come downtown,' Brad Popick, president of the Portland Outdoor Store on the corner of SW Third Avenue and Oak Street, tells Axios. 'Plus there's not enough retail; almost every building has vacancies.' Paul Higgins lives in SW Portland and works on NW 23rd, so he's nearby daily, but 'I'm trying to think of the last time,' he said when asked if he comes downtown often. 'It's been a while. I didn't realize how many empty storefronts there are downtown,' he said."
My Northwest in Washington. "Google users are ripping 'Jay Inslee’s Campground' in Oak Harbor via online reviews. It has a nasty reputation for embracing meth heads and looking like a trash heap. But the campground doesn’t actually exist. A group of community activists are behind the stunt. Someone added the fictional 'Jay Inslee’s Campground' to Google Maps in an effort to troll the governor for being astoundingly absent on the issue of homelessness. It replaced a previous and short-lived listing for 'Jay Inslee State Park.' User Pat gave it five stars, but not for the reason you’d expect. 'Super nice place for doing meth and coke,' the reviewer says. 'No laws enforced, and bathrooms are easily accessible since they’re literally everywhere, including in the middle of the road. Will stay here for free again.'"
"User Samuel had a similar tone but gave the site only one star. 'Would not recommend. Their carbon-related policies are outdated. However, at least no carbon tax… or property tax,' Samuel noted. Activist Steve Adams took partial responsible for this stunt. 'Jay Inslee State Park stands for the true pinacle [sic] of Inslee’s accomplishments in Washington. Filled with garbage, human excrement, burnt-down RVs, derelicts, criminals, and needles, this park has it all. It is so loved by all, not even county and city police can stay out of it. Rumor has it, it’s a sweet pedophile haven,' the review reportedly said."
The New York Post. "Some residents of trendy Williamsburg are crying foul over the dozens of migrants being sheltered in the recreation center at its popular McCarren Park — claiming the city’s asylum crisis has left 'chaos emerging everywhere.' The Brooklyn rec center warned residents on its Web site Monday that all programs in its south wing, including its media lab, are 'canceled until further notice' because of migrant housing set up there three days ago."
"'I’m a Latina person. I don’t want to sound racist because you have to be really careful about what you say these days. But it’s not fair that these people are brought in in these conditions or that they’re brought in at all,' said Adriana Mesen, 41, a freelance graphic designer who walked to the park to get a first-hand look at the new shelter after hearing about it from a friend. 'We come to the park every day, we work out, it’s a safe space,' she said. 'You don’t know who — I mean not everybody is dangerous, but somebody might be. The city government is weird. It’s like they don’t care about the city,. You see trash everywhere, it’s like chaos emerging everywhere. It’s like they’re trying to bring in the chaos somehow.'"
"'I remember when this place used to be abandoned,' Teriq, 54, an art student and shiatsu practitioner who has lived in the neighborhood for 34 years said of the facilities at McCarren Park. 'It used to be closed off and you could worship Satan and drink. It’s very different now.' said Teriq, who declined to give his last name."
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. "The state’s shelter system has become so overburdened that Governor Maura Healey is preparing to take action aimed at relieving the pressure exacerbated by an influx of migrants on top of the state’s already dire housing needs, according to several people with knowledge of the proposed plan. The action could come as early as this week in the form of an emergency declaration. 'There’s been a group of providers who have really been pushing hard in the governor’s office' for such a declaration, said Danielle Ferrier, chief executive officer of the Boston-area homeless services provider Heading Home, in an interview. At present, she said, the shelters are in a 'catastrophic' situation. 'It is not safe any longer on the ground, in our sites,' she said."
"This comes months after New York called a state of emergency and Florida activated additional National Guard members to help cope with surges in migrants. New York City, Chicago, El Paso, and Washington, D.C., have also made emergency declarations. John Yazwinski, head of Father Bill’s & MainSpring, which runs shelters south of Boston, said he is among those who have been urging the governor to declare a state of emergency. He said Father Bill’s took in a few dozen of the migrants that Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida flew to Martha’s Vineyard last summer — and most of them remain in his shelter system. And one major reason for that, he said, is that, 'We can’t get them their work papers.'"
From Reuters. "Country Garden said on Tuesday it has not paid two dollar bond coupons due on Aug. 6 totalling $22.5 million, confirming market fears that the biggest privately owned developer in China is slipping into repayment troubles. Country Garden had total liabilities of 1.4 trillion yuan ($194 billion) at the end of 2022 and large exposure in lower-tier cities. 'The fact that (Country Garden) is struggling to address an interest payment, rather than a full bond principal repayment, perhaps underscores its very tight liquidity,' said CreditSight analyst Nicholas Chen. 'Given (its) size, we think such an event will have a negative spillover effect for the sector, particularly on investor sentiment towards other privately-run developers that are still afloat.'"
The South China Morning Post. "Hong Kong homebuyers rushed to snap up new flats at the lowest prices the city has seen in seven years, betting that the flagship property company of Hong Kong's richest man has the correct reading of the slumping market. More than 8,000 prospective buyers have deposited cheques to bid for 254 units at The Coast Line II in Yau Tong, which has not yet launched. The project by CK Asset Holding, the property flagship of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing, lies about 10 minutes from an MTR station in the southeastern corner of Kowloon."
"The 132 flats in the project's first batch are priced at HK$14,997 (US$1,921) per square foot on average after discounts - 16 per cent cheaper than the most recent launches of Wheelock Properties' Koko Mare and Koko Rosso in the neighbouring Lam Tin neighbourhood. 'The launch of Coast Line II is just the beginning of a price war,' said Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL in Hong Kong, who called CK Asset's aggressive pricing a bid to raise attention and spark an improvement in sentiment among homebuyers who are reluctant to buy right now because they foresee prices continuing to fall. 'What CK Asset did is actually quoting a more down-to-earth, more realistic and more updated market price,' Tsang said. 'If new projects are launching at a normal market price, the responses are going to be very slow and cold.'"
"Meanwhile, the number of unsold units in completed projects is the highest since 2007, according to JLL. A total of 83,000 housing units are available in Hong Kong, with 18,000 in completed projects and the rest under construction. About 25,000 more units are expected to hit the market in 2023. The glut of new supply in the second half will further exert pressure on the already floundering residential market amid a challenging external economic environment, high interest rates and a slow economic recovery in mainland China. 'In order to digest inventory, developers understand they need to offer some discounts,' said Raymond Cheng, managing director of property management at CGS-CIMB Securities. Price pressure in the new-home market has spilled over to the secondary market as well. 'Transaction volume over the weekend has frozen' in the secondary market, said Cheng."