We’re Starting To See The Bubble Pop And Ponzi Schemes And Pyramid Schemes Failing
A report from Alabama.com. "Average home sale prices declined slightly in Baldwin County in the month of July, after more than two years of skyrocketing home values. 'We’re heading into a buyer’s market,' Rachel Romash-Reese, president of Baldwin Realtors, said. 'If [buyers] want to negotiate and make a deal, now’s the time to shine. Everyone’s holding on to their money. I keep telling sellers, ‘You need to negotiate, because we don’t have the upper hand here.'''
The Bellingham Herald in Washington. "Whatcom County’s median home sale price has fluctuated throughout 2023. The median home sale price reached an extreme high of $682,000 on Jan. 2, the highest price so far this year, according to Redfin. In July, Whatcom’s median home sale prices decreased, dropping to $524,250 on July 31, the lowest price since February. 'We are still in a sellers market despite the head wind of recent mortgage rate highs. Seller credits for closing costs and rate buy downs are more common for homes that have remained on market longer than average,' wrote Jason Lee, a local broker with Windermere Real Estate in Bellingham."
The Real Deal. "Brokers, buyers and sellers across South Florida are in a paradoxical situation. Despite the continued slowdown in deal volume, high interest rates and a pricing disconnect between sellers and buyers, sales are still setting records across South Florida, including in wealthy enclaves like Miami Beach and Indian Creek. Luxury single-family home sales, defined as the upper 10 percent of the market, in Miami Beach and the nearby barrier island cities, fell by about 30 percent in the second quarter, year-over-year, according to Douglas Elliman. The median sale price also dropped 20 percent to $16.7 million."
"Price cuts are ubiquitous. Of the 98 single-family homes that sold in Miami Beach over the past six months, 91 sold at a discounted price off the asking price, according to MLS data compiled by Miami Real Estate Group, a brokerage led by Andres Asion. The houses that sold traded at an average 15 percent discount off their asking prices and spent nearly six months on the market. But it’s still not easy to convince sellers to 'improve' their pricing or accept below-asking price offers. Successfully closing some deals is like 'pulling teeth and nails,' said Dora Puig, owner of Luxe Living Realty."
The Wall Street Journal on California. "Known as Stanley 2, the three-story house will be very different from the other billions of dollars worth of real estate that the couple has sold in the L.A. area, says real-estate broker-turned developer Branden Williams. After nearly five years of construction, Stanley 2 is finally slated to come on the market for $38 million this fall. It is one of two major spec houses the Williamses, who run the brokerage the Beverly Hills Estates, have developed in the Hills over the past several years. Having acquired the construction site for $2.9 million in 2016, at the height of the L.A. spec-home construction frenzy, the Williamses have run up against a series of hurdles. Now realizing that the team will struggle to make any significant profit on the project, Branden says these two houses in the Hills will be their last major ground-up developments. 'If I really looked at what we’re going to make on this house, it’s not a lot of money,' Branden said. 'There’s no more meat on the bone.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "Redfin real estate agent Alex Sobieski has seen Bay Area agents reduce their typical commission from 2.5% of the transaction down to 2% or even 1.75%, depending on the home price. Agents should be ready to pay for staging, photos and even more 'gimmicky stuff,' he said. One agent he knows will hire a taco truck for his open houses to attract buyers to homes over $2 million. 'They’re doing whatever it takes. … The sellers expect that kind of stuff now too,' he said. '… They’re very anxious.'"
"Lower commissions and more money spent on marketing mean agents are working harder than ever while earnings shrink. 'Pretty much every agent out there is making 25%-40% less income than they used to,' Sobieski said. 'Sellers more than ever are looking for value, and that means less commission. They know their homes are worth 8%-10% less because of the [interest] rate increase.'"
The Philadelphia Inquirer in Pennsylvania. "Even as an undergraduate at Drexel University, Benjamin Nelson knew he wanted 'out of the rat race.' On social media, he discovered that real-estate influencers Greg Parker Jr. — known online as Big Bizzneesss — and his wife, Danielle 'Nikki' Morris Parker, offered an enticing option. Against backdrops of private planes, luxury cars, and their palatial $2.3 million home in Fort Lauderdale, they shared their own rags-to-riches story of building a real estate empire from the ground up in North Philadelphia. They had gotten rich while investing in their own community, and promised to empower their 285,000 Instagram followers to achieve similar success. Parker sought to create a sense of urgency. 'Stay locked in,' he urged his viewers. 'If you blink, you’ll miss it.'"
"In an August interview, Nelson said he had hesitated to take action because he was embarrassed about being conned. He hasn’t yet told his family about the loss. He had also been holding out hope that Parker, whom he once regarded as a mentor, would make good. 'They were the people that introduced me to real estate,' he said. 'I wasn’t expecting the person I learned the thing from to do that to me.'"
",Jayson Thornton, is a St. Louis-based financial adviser. In his view, Parker is similar to many other influencers who offer expensive books, classes and mentoring programs, leading to investment opportunities — but often landing clients in ever-deeper debt. He said such offerings proliferated during the pandemic as the government pumped out stimulus checks, unemployment support and forgivable small-business loans — ensuring that their growing audiences suddenly had more free time to devote to social media, and more access to capital than ever before. 'Over the past four or five years it’s been the Wild West of criminals and convicts turning themselves into finance gurus,' he said. 'Now, with all the stimulus and unemployment money running out, we’re starting to see the bubble pop and Ponzi schemes and pyramid schemes failing.'"
The Globe and Mail. "The condominium market has slowed in Toronto this summer, except for one cadre of buyers. Downsizers who have cash to spend are driving sales. But even those in the upper echelons are looking for a deal. Christopher Bibby, broker with Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Real Estate, says condo units were selling quickly in the spring to people who planned to live in them. Potential sellers saw sales bouncing back and began to list more units. But the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hike in June – followed by another increase to its key rate in July – doused the enthusiasm of buyers. 'It very quickly took out those ideal conditions and deflated the market. Sellers have had to change their expectations very quickly,' as bidding wars backfire and properties sit on the market. 'We’re getting showings on properties and nobody wants to pay.'"
"In June, Andre Kutyan, broker at Harvey Kalles Real Estate listed a two-bedroom, two-bathroom unit in an older building at Bay and Bloor. The condo has a nicely renovated interior but doesn’t provide outdoor space, he says. The sellers purchased the unit for $2.7-million in 2018. When it came time to sell this year, Mr. Kutyan advised the sellers to list the unit for less than they paid for it. The owners set an asking price of $2.495-million but, after three weeks, the unit hadn’t sold so Mr. Kutyan reduced the price to $2.349-million. Two days after the price cut, the unit sold for $2.315-million, or $1,137 per square foot."
From Delano. "House prices in Luxembourg have enjoyed remarkable growth over the past decade. However, the housing market has hit a speed bump in recent months due to higher interest rates. Property prices in the grand duchy fell by 7.5% during the second quarter of 2023 and residential listings are declining. Kat Henson, founder of Match Works design studio in Esch-Sur-Alzette, says the challenging market conditions pose a problem for homeowners. 'Currently the housing market is stagnant and saturated with homebuyers that cannot afford future mortgage repayments and others that can, but who have to sell in order to secure the deposit.' Rather than selling or remortgaging their homes, Henson says that homeowners should consider investing in their property through renovations."
From Bloomberg. "Judging by China’s official statistics, the nation’s housing market has been remarkably resilient in the face of tepid economic growth and record defaults by developers. But the picture emerging from property agents and private data providers is far more dire. These figures show existing-home prices falling at least 15% in prime neighborhoods of major metropolitan areas like Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as in more than half of China’s tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Existing homes near Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s headquarters in Hangzhou have dropped about 25% from late 2021 highs, according to local agents."
"In Hangzhou, close to where Alibaba is headquartered, home prices in some neighborhoods are down 25% to 28% from a peak around October 2021, agents said. In Lianyang, a downtown area popular with expats and financiers in Shanghai, residential prices have slid 15% to 20% from record highs in mid-2021, they said. Even as of March, before a fresh slowdown, more than half of tier-2 and tier-3 cities saw existing-home prices fall more than 15% from peaks, Guolian Securities Co. economists wrote in a report. Actual declines from peaks could be sharper, as the agency only compiles data starting November 2018, the economists cautioned. Top cities, once considered resilient against a housing downturn, aren’t immune. Prices of existing homes in at least five popular districts of Shenzhen have slumped 15% in the past three years, according to a July report."
The South China Morning Post. "Yu Qian, a 26-year-old freelance English teacher, has moved with her husband and newborn to Zhengzhou, the capital of central China's Henan province seeking more lucrative work. The small family will not be buying a home for now. They are currently renting a 90-sq-m (968-sq-ft) flat for 2,100 yuan (US$290) a month. The unit's sale price is listed at 1.08 million yuan (US$148,000). 'We are also considering buying an apartment in Zhengzhou, but I think property prices will very possibly drop next year. The liquidity and preservation value of real estate are much worse than before,' Yu said. 'All of my friends who bought an apartment over the past couple of years have regretted the decision.'"
"Eli Mai, a sales director with a foreign company in Guangzhou, saw the value of his two flats rise from 3.8 million yuan in 2016 to 6.4 million yuan in 2017. They peaked at 8 million yuan in 2021 and are now worth less than 7 million yuan. 'No one knows how the economy will be in the future. Under such circumstances … you should not invest rashly,' he said. 'Now, most Chinese ordinary people who own housing feel that their wealth is shrinking dramatically.'"
"Li Wei, a freelancing copywriter in Shenzhen, has to repay 18,000 yuan each month for three apartments bought in the late 2010s when the property was still booming and buyers were betting on persistent price hikes. Adding to her stress, she has not yet been paid for freelance work done this year. 'The mortgage is now a heavy burden for me,' said the 34-year-old with a two-month-old, as current market prices have fallen below what she paid."