When You Go Up, Up, Up, There’s Nowhere To Go But Down
A report from the Asheville Citizen Times in North Carolina. "It was the epitome of a hot market: Local buyers so anxious to snap up a house, they wouldn't even bother to haggle with the seller. In fact, they would offer more than the asking price. Now, that Asheville area trend appears to be cooling slightly. According to recently released home sale data for a 13-county Western North Carolina region, sellers in June got on average 97.7% of the list price. That's down from 100.4% in June 2022, numbers from Canopy MLS released July 28 said. Asheville real estate agent Dave Noyes attributed the slowdown to rising mortgage rates. 'It took 25-30% of the buyers out of the market,' said Noyes. Other average sales prices drops: Henderson County at -1.5% to $500,994, Madison County at -5.8% to $463,247, Transylvania County at -5.9% to $572,698, Jackson County at -35.3% to $351,681, McDowell County at -9.6% to $329,101, Burke County at -0.2% to $294,693, Swain County at -9.8% to $340,817, Rutherford County at -10.4% to $338,485."
The American Statesman in Texas. "In June, home sales in the Austin region decreased 8.5% from the prior June, and the $483,000 median sold price was down 9.6% from June 2022, the Austin Board of Realtors said in its latest report. The board's housing economist, Clare Losey said it's important to remember that home prices 'are still very much elevated' relative to pre-pandemic levels. In June, the median sales price in the Austin region ($483,000) surpassed that of June 2019 by 50%. That means 'affordability constraints on home prices are still very much at play,' she said. And coupled with higher interest rates, 'that's what has been driving that moderation in sales activity and prices themselves.'"
The Miami Herald in Florida. "Despite the wave of outsiders who relocated to Florida during the pandemic, Miami-Dade County actually saw a net decrease in population from 2020 to 2022, according to newly released U.S. Census Bureau figures. The newcomers were outnumbered by those departing by a margin not seen since the throes of the Great Recession that began in late 2007. Miriam Merino’s life might cause anyone to think she enjoyed the best of Miami-Dade County. In recent years, her quality of life declined. The city’s allure had faded. 'Traffic became impossible. People that came in were disrespectful. The developers get whatever they want,' Merino said. 'It became a pirate town. Whoever has more money, wins.'"
KTVU in California. "A new study suggested that the Bay Area’s housing market was seeing one of the nation’s largest cooldowns, as 13 local cities were among a list of the top 18 U.S. spots, where home prices were falling. At the top of the list was the East Bay city of Dublin, where home values plunged more than 15.37%, according to the study. Prices for the typical home in Dublin averaged $1,264,563 in May, a drop of $230,000 from the previous year. San Francisco ranked second, dropping 13.3%, or $195,275, to bring the average home value of a typical home to $1,273,464. Palo Alto saw the third-largest percentage drop falling 12.82%, or $464,868, though the average home value there was the highest on the list. Fremont took the fourth slot with a drop of 12.77% or $202,814 to average $1,384,781."
"Kirkland, Washington broke up the Bay Area streak, coming in fifth. But Oakland followed, and it was the only city in the top 10 with a home value under $1 million, according to the analysis. Pleasanton and San Mateo took the sixth and seventh rankings respectively. Other Bay Area cities identified among the top to see the biggest percentage drops included Alameda, Mountain View, Berkeley, Livermore, Union City, and San Ramon."
Money Wise on California. "America’s most-robbed Walgreens was the victim of at least three thefts within 30 minutes in July, according to CNN Senior National Correspondent Kyung Lah — one of the latest examples of brazen crime at the location. The thefts were witnessed during the filming of a televised report at the Walgreens in San Francisco’s Richmond neighborhood. According to Lah, Walgreens has identified this location as having the 'highest theft rate' — hit more than a dozen times a day — of the pharmacy chain’s nearly 9,000 U.S. stores. San Francisco resident Richie Greenberg, who toured the Richmond Walgreens with Lah, described what he felt after previously seeing the chained-up items. 'This was bizarre, something I’d never seen before,' he said. 'This is just more icing on the cake. Telling us that rampant crime has become a regular part of life.'"
"Real estate investing expert Patrick Carroll said the commercial real estate market is tumbling toward a crash that could be as devastating as the 2008 crisis. 'The party’s over, unfortunately,' he said. 'The office market’s going to be destroyed, hotels are going to be destroyed — it’s going to be ugly.'"
The Real Deal. "Last summer, well before multifamily syndicator Tides Equities would show its troubled hand to investors, economists warned that the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate hikes could trigger a wave of defaults. Meanwhile, MF1 Capital, one of Tides’ favored lenders, was doling out loans like it was 2021. The debt fund, led by Scott Waynebern, originated at least $7.4 billion in debt between 2020 and 2021, giving high-leverage loans to multifamily syndicators looking to act on aggressive fix-and-flip plans."
"Though the loans were floating-rate, they were short-term, the benchmark federal funds rate was near zero, and most real estate players did not expect inflation, then dubbed transitory, to set off the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. But industry observers say that by 2022, with the fight against inflation in the spotlight, a downturn was apparent to anyone willing to notice it. 'You could make an argument the writing was on the wall by the end of 2021, and especially the first quarter of 2022,' one Sun Belt-focused investor said."
"Bankruptcy is another path for syndicators in a cash crunch, industry insiders say. But most of the bridge loans coming due carry a so-called 'bad boy' guarantee — a declaration that the borrower won’t commit a nefarious act, like filing for bankruptcy or scoring subordinate debt on a property without a lender’s consent. If any do file for bankruptcy, it would break the guarantee and lenders could go after more than just the property. A person familiar with multifamily syndicators put it thus: 'It’s [like] when you mortgage all your properties in Monopoly — you’re done.'"
Bisnow Philadelphia. "Without the backing of billion-dollar funds, developing student housing is like threading a needle right now — and developers are running out of needles. The flood of institutional capital into the sector has flowed primarily toward universities in Power 5 athletic conferences, and longtime student housing developers like The Michaels Organization and Campus Apartments have been priced out, executives from both companies said. 'At the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, there’s 3,500 beds coming,' said Campus Apartments Executive Vice President Miles Orth said. 'Florida State [University], [The University of] Florida — all the markets you’d expect. We’re a little worried about the overbuilding happening in those markets.'"
The Beacon Herald in Canada. "Permits for construction projects in Brant County dropped sharply in the first half of the year in comparison to 2022 but there are signs business is picking up. 'We’ve been hitting records year after year and it can’t keep happening forever,' said county chief building inspector Richard Weidhaas. 'When you go up, up, up, there’s nowhere to go but down eventually.'"
Metro in the UK. "Rishi Sunak has appeared on LBC Radio this morning to take calls from concerned listeners asking how he can help them amid the cost of living crisis. One caller explained that he is a married father-of-four in his early 30s with a family to support and has ‘been encouraged to invest in bricks and mortar and become homeowners’. Jack, from Guildford, asked: ‘But when my current two-year fixed rate expires at the end of this year, my new fixed rate will go up from £1,500 a month to £2,800 a month.' While admitting he was ‘incredibly sympathetic’ about Jack’s situation, which is being ‘faced by many across the country’, Mr Sunak effectively told him to ask the bank to deal with it. ‘So you can talk to your bank and you can do a couple of things with them. You could extend the term of your mortgage by say five to 10 years – or you could switch to an interest only mortgage.'"
"When presenter Nick Ferrari asked what he made of the PM’s advice, Jack replied: ‘I’m already on a 35-year term and that £2,800 was extending that term to 37 years. Now bearing in mind I am in my early 30s, I don’t really want to be paying it off until I’m in the grave.’"
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. "A home hunting couple with no children could spend $1,038,000 at auction while the cash rate is 4.1 per cent, modelling from comparison platform Canstar shows. That assumes they have saved a 20 per cent deposit, slash their living expenses to a frugal level to maximise their borrowing power, and each earn an average income of $94,000 a year based on ABS figures. But in April last year, that couple could have spent $1,422,000 if they had the deposit ready. Their budget since dropped $384,000 as the Reserve Bank raised interest rates at the fastest pace in a generation."
"An average couple could no longer borrow enough to purchase a median priced house in Sydney, which cost about $1,334,000 in July on CoreLogic figures. That’s a drop of only $109,000 since April last year, a far more modest change compared to the cut to their spending power. The average couple could afford the median house in Melbourne, valued at about $924,000, and down only $86,000 since April. Brisbane’s median house value of about $820,000 is down just over $71,000 in the same time period."
Frontier Myanmar. "With rows of smart houses with large yards and reliable electricity, on winding lanes secluded from Yangon’s main thoroughfares, Golden Valley has long been one of Yangon’s most desirable neighbourhoods. A luxury housing bubble helped to enrich members of the military and their associates in the decade of reforms that preceded the 2021 coup, but a subsequent exodus of foreign professionals has tanked the rental market – possibly beyond repair."
"At its peak, homes in Golden Valley were being rented for as much as US$10,000 a month and sale prices for certain tower blocks became even more expensive than New York City. Rents eased gradually from 2016, but the military coup in February 2021 caused demand to collapse. Expat-heavy areas like Golden Valley emptied out, leaving once highly desired homes vacant and pushing prices down by more than 50 percent, according to two real estate agents who spoke to Frontier."
"Daw Htet*, a doctor and Golden Valley resident who spoke to Frontier through an intermediary for safety reasons, said she had to slash the rental cost of one of her two properties by two thirds to entice a tenant. 'In the last couple of years, it has been harder to find a tenant because most of the expats have left the country. In 2015, I rented my house for $3,000 per month, but now I only rent it for less than $1,000,' she said. 'For the market to recover – I don’t think it ever can. It was a fluke that so many people came in when they did at a time [when] the housing market was at a place where there was very limited supply in relation to the rapid high demand,' said Mr David Ney, who worked as a real estate agent in Yangon from 2009 to 2015. 'Now there is more stock than ever before and more to come online when paused developments eventually get finished.'"