It's Gone, My Money Is Gone, I Don't Think … It's Coming Back
A report from Bank Rate. "'We simply don’t have enough inventory,” said Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors chief economist. 'Will some markets see a price decline? Yes. [But] with the supply not being there, the repeat of a 30 percent price decline is highly, highly unlikely.' Housing economists agree that prices could fall, but the decline won’t be as severe as the one homeowners experienced during the Great Recession. One obvious difference between now and then is that homeowners’ personal balance sheets are much stronger today than they were 15 years ago."
WPDE in South Carolina. "There are programs out there to help you purchase a house even if you don't have money for a down payment or closing costs, and they can have you building equity in your dream home in no time. 'Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA all of them are pushing for affordable housing. They’re all trying to get in that game, and so they’re all coming up with new products which is awesome,' said Lori Beardslee, a Sr. Branch Manager at Silverton Mortgage. 'If you were buying a house for $250,000, I would tell the agent to write the contract, and I’m making this up, for $257,000 with the buyer paying $7,000 in closing costs. So, the seller still gets the 250 they wanted. The buyer has financed those closing costs technically into the price they’re going to pay in the house, and they’re getting 100% financing. So, they can literally have little to nothing invested in the purchase.'"
"Beardslee said it’s a good time to buy now because you’re missing out on the equity you could be creating in your home. 'If you don’t buy now and say I’m going to wait a year and a half and buy when they drop to five, well you’ve lost anywhere from five to ten percent appreciation on the value of that house by not getting in the game. The housing values aren’t dropping. They’re still going up because of the lack of inventory. So, get in the game. Start making money for yourself. Then you can refinance later,' said Beardslee."
The Waco Tribune in Texas. "The housing industry in Greater Waco remains challenging. 'We’re seeing more price reductions, and some builders are dumping their higher-end lots because they can’t sell them,' said Jenny McCaslin, an agent with White Label Realty Co. 'Higher-end homes are not selling.'"
News 12 in Arizona. "Lisa and Michael Murphy were moving into their dream home. They had moved from Oregon to Arizona in July 2022 and eyed a brand new community, the Lakes, being built in Maricopa by Richmond American. They were elated when Richmond American called and said one of their model homes was available - and for an additional few thousand dollars, they could pay for the house to come fully furnished. They closed on the home in January. But they say when they moved in, it was far from perfect. It was a mess. 'The house was filthy. There was urine on the toilet seat,' Murphy said. 'Dirty decorator towels, the shower wasn't cleaned. They said, 'Oh, we hire a construction cleaning crew. So it's never clean.'"
"The Murphys moved out of their infested home while Richmond American came back and cleaned. Their problems did not end there. 'The irrigation system just blew up,' Murphy said. The company did not address the problem or others on their 93-page inspection report for months. Most items still need to be fixed today. 'They treated you like kings and queens, but then once you sign and get your money, that's it. It's like they don't care,' Murphy said. The Murphys are not alone. 'We still haven't had a housewarming because we're too embarrassed,' said Renault Carrington. They live two doors down from the Murphys."
The Seattle Times in Washington. "After years of huge pandemic-driven price growth, King County home prices peaked in May 2022 at nearly $1 million and have since fallen 9%. But a limited supply of homes for sale keeps prices from plummeting further. Higher mortgage rates — currently averaging 7%, up from 6% a year ago and 3% in 2021 — drive up monthly payments and dampen competition as many would-be buyers abandon the market and others become choosier 'If you’re going to pay 30% more this year than you were going to a year ago, you’re going to be a little more picky,' said John L. Scott agent Jon Bye, based in Kent. 'It still favors towards a sellers’ market.' Fewer than 3% of homes sold in the Seattle area from May through July were sold at a loss, up from 1% a year earlier but still far below San Francisco’s 12%, according to Redfin. The median loss in Seattle was about $50,000."
The Lovell Chronicle in Wyoming. "The real estate market has finally cooled down in north Big Horn County after being supercharged during the COVID-19 pandemic, but high interest rates and a limited supply still make housing a difficult local market. 'Yes, it is on its way back to normalization,' real estate broker Sarah Johnson said. 'That is happening.' In 2021, there were a lot of people from the West Coast walking into Johnson’s office looking to make the move to Wyoming. That phenomenon has largely disappeared. 'That was true in 2021. That has calmed down. We’re back now to seeing what we’ve always seen,' Johnson said, 'It’s people moving around versus people moving in.'"
The Real Deal on Georgia. "An Atlanta apartment investor, specializing in buy-and-flip properties, had one of its complexes fall into foreclosure, while another potential auction was postponed due to missed payments. A subsidiary of MSC Investment & Management LLC defaulted on a loan for the Virginia Highlands Apartment Homes located at 609 Virginia Avenue, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported. The lender, H.I.G. Realty Financing, took control of the property through foreclosure for $65 million. No other bids were placed on the nine-building, 270-unit complex, which MSC had acquired just last year for $81 million. Another property owned by an MSC subsidiary, Celebration At Sandy Springs at 7000 Roswell Road, was also slated for foreclosure, but the sale was delayed."
"Both loans for the properties were relatively short-term — about three years — with variable interest rates that amounted to over 70 percent of the purchase price. Experts said that long-term apartment investors typically borrow around 50 percent of the acquisition cost."
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. "The second office building in as many months has sold in downtown Boston — for a price 17 percent less than what it fetched a decade ago. Boston-based real estate firm Synergy Investments has acquired One Liberty Square, a 13-story building in the Financial District, for $45 million, according to a deed filed in Suffolk County on Friday. In a sign of the troubles facing Boston’s office market since the start of COVID-19, that’s a sum $9 million lower than the $54.4 million New York-based real estate firm Clarion Partners paid for the building in 2013, and $24 million less than the $69 million at which the Boston assessor’s office values the property. It’s a striking reversal from pre-pandemic years, when sales were brisk and buildings fetched ever-higher prices."
"Synergy’s purchase of One Liberty Square comes at a time when office space availability is at an all-time high in Greater Boston. It’s even higher for so-called 'Class B' space — typically older and smaller buildings like One Liberty — that are now on average 30 percent empty. That sector 'continues to be the biggest drag on the market,' according to Colliers. Some experts estimate that many buildings have lost between 20 to 40 percent of their value — a big reason why the city is starting to encourage some to be converted to housing or other uses."
London Free Press. "A new report on August home sales released by the London St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR) says the average local sale price was $663,663 in August, down about $5,000 from the month before. The average local home price last month was far off the record set in early 2022, before a series of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes to address inflation put the brakes on the runaway market. Average home prices in the LSTAR area hit $825,000 in February 2022, dropping to $762,400 by May and hitting $648,000 by August 2022. About 1,200 new listings came online last month, compared to 1,333 the month before."
The Telegraph in the UK. "Spiralling mortgage costs are upending the carefully laid financial plans of millions of homeowners across the country, stretching budgets to breaking point and forcing some to sell beloved family homes. But for the super-rich, it’s a different story. With the help of elite tax lawyers, accountants and private bankers, uber-wealthy individuals are sidestepping surging remortgaging costs on expensive properties, and even cashing in on the property crisis. One German billionaire, a client of Paul Welch, founder and chief executive of private finance business Million Plus, used a low-interest loan to snap up a £6m UK property at a steep discount. The seller could no longer afford the mortgage payments and needed a quick sell, and the client spied an opportunity to put his wealth to work."
"Borrowing against the value of an asset – known as a Lombard loan – is one of the cheapest ways to raise money quickly. And it’s the wealthy making the most of it, expanding their property portfolios using low-interest credit. 'It’s opportunistic buying, which if you have the money makes perfect sense,' Mr Welch says. 'You buy a property at a 20pc discount from a ‘distressed’ seller, rent it out with a yield of 5pc, then the yield covers the debt servicing cost – and you haven’t had to part with any cash.'"
DPA International. "Germany's construction sector is facing collapse as financing for new projects dries up, the head of the country's skilled crafts association (ZDH) warned on Sunday. 'In the construction sector, we're heading for a wall at high speed, and the government is simply unable to hit the brakes,' Jörg Dittrich, head of the ZDH, told the Sunday edition of the mass-circulation Bild newspaper. 'The construction section, with its 2.33 million workers is a key sector for skilled crafts, and this sector threatens to collapse completely,' Dittrich said."
"Projects agreed and financed years ago were being worked through, while financing for future projects had collapsed, he said. While the ruling coalition was talking about deregulation, it was doing nothing, he said. 'The regulations remain just as complex, the subsidy programmes agreed are just a drop in the ocean,' Dittrich said."
ABC News in Australia. "Kris Agrawal was the go-to advisor for many in his orbit. When Yogita Patel needed a home loan, fellow temple-goers encouraged her to seek his help. He was Rajeev Kumar's mortgage broker, financial advisor and accountant. Others turned to him to help build their dream home. Three years ago, Mr Agrawal began developing properties, offering his friends and loyal clients enticing returns on investment in his projects across western Sydney. More than 150 mum and dad investors sunk almost $60 million into the scheme – money they fear they may never see again after the shocking collapse of several companies connected to Mr Agrawal and his wife Shashi."
"Mrs Patel has been her family's sole earner since her husband was brutally bashed in 2010, an attack that left him with a severe brain injury and unable to work. She had her own health issues and was worried for her family's future when Mr Agrawal – her financial advisor of about a decade – suggested she invest in a housing project at Castle Hill. Mrs Patel received some interest on her initial investment, but she cries as she recalls the company's demise. It went into voluntary administration in June. 'I got the email and I told him in my language, 'Did you lose all my money?' and he said, 'Yes,' Mrs Patel told 7.30. 'I was so shocked I just literally drop on the floor. It's gone, my money is gone, I don't think … it's coming back. Everything is messed up.'"
"Mr Kumar estimates he invested more than $1 million in the scheme. He told 7.30 he and his wife have nothing left in their superannuation fund. 'My message to Kris is, you have to pay our money back,' he said. 'We need our money back — everyone.'"
From Bloomberg. "Hong Kong property stocks suffered their biggest selloff in seven months, hit by disappointing earnings at the city’s top builder and a major bank’s reported plan to raise mortgage rates. The Hang Seng Index’s property sub-gauge dropped as much as 4.5%, the most since Feb. 13. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Hong Kong’s biggest developer, led the declines by plunging nearly 13% to its lowest intraday level since 2009. The selling came after Sun Hung Kai recorded a worse-than-expected 17% drop in full-year profit, another example of a local real estate market pressured by rising interest rates and a supply glut. HSBC Holdings Plc’s reported plan to increase mortgage rates also has exacerbated concerns about a potential price war among local developers."
"If more banks follow HSBC’s lead, it will add further pressure on local developers 'as they either need to cut prices to support sales, which will hurt margins, or simply suffer from lower revenue,' said Patrick Wong, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. Fears of a home price war in the city has surfaced since billionaire Li Ka-shing’s real estate arm offered deep discounts on a new project last month. Other local builders also fell Monday."
From News.com.au. "The saying goes that when China sneezes, Australia catches a fiscal cold – and if that adage holds true now, some fear our economy is in for an especially nasty illness. Not too long ago, China was meant to overtake the US as the world’s economic superpower – a milestone that was meant to be met by now. In its latest analysis, Bloomberg predicts 'it may never pull ahead to claim the top spot.'"
Channel News Asia. "In 2015, when Lingshan was deciding what to study in university, China’s property market was booming and civil engineering seemed a lucrative choice. Fast forward seven years and Lingshan, who graduated with a master’s degree last year, is in an awkward situation. She has been unemployed for a year and is living in an apartment merely 8 square metres in size in the eastern city of Nanjing. 'Why did I study civil engineering? Oh my, that was stupid,' said Lingshan, who asked to be identified by her online alias. 'I had wanted to work for a real estate developer but by the time I graduated, they were going bust one after another,' she recalled. 'I was hit in the face by the downturn.'"
"According to Chinese media reports, the country’s top 50 property developers cut 200,000 jobs last year. With many homes unfinished and property prices continuing to decline, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Lingshan recently received another reality check from an employment consultant. 'If you still want to stay in civil engineering, your resume is a bit awkward,' the consultant, Xu Hongfei, told her. 'First, you are a woman, so you can’t work at construction sites. Normally they hire men to do that,' he continued. 'Also, most companies would only recruit from the graduating class. Right now, that’s the Class of 2024, and you graduated in 2022.' China’s unemployment data and social media chatter show Lingshan is not alone in her predicament."
"Qiang, who is from China's southwest, recently graduated in eldercare – a relevant skill in a rapidly ageing country. But he is no longer keen on putting his degree to use. 'It pays too little, and the hours are long,' he said. 'You need to be on standby 24 hours a day and do night shifts. When on probation, the salary is only 1,500 to 2,000 yuan (S$279 to S$372),' he said. 'Even when you are confirmed, you get paid at most 3,000 yuan (S$558).'"
"Bantering with friends over a meal, one of them quipped: 'Become a care worker? Who’s going to marry you? You want to be single forever? With the salary of a care worker, you can’t even afford to have a cat.' Another friend piped up: 'Can’t even support yourself, forget about the cat.'"