Finally, The Penny Is Dropping
A report from US News and World Report."It was a case of good news, bad news as new home sales increased by 12.3% in September while prices dropped sharply from a year ago, the Census Bureau said on Wednesday. Builders have been offering incentives such as mortgage buy-downs and additional upgrades to lure buyers as mortgage rates flirt with a level of 8% for a 30-year fixed rate loan. The median sales price, meanwhile, was $418,800 – down from $430,100 in August and a 12% drop from $477,700 a year ago."
From WFLX. "It's what appears to be a housing cooldown across south Florida. From the Treasure Coast to Miami, home sales slowed down and median home prices dipped for now several months in a row. And it's not just Martin County's sales slowing down. 'Parts of Indian River County, St Lucie county, Martin county, Palm Beach County, even parts of Dade,' Stuart real estate agent Alex Haigh said. He also said inventory is up and houses are staying on the market longer than about a year ago. 'We can feel it as real estate agents, the phone doesn’t ring as much,' Haigh said."
WAFB in Louisiana. "According to the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors (GBRAR), new listings, pending sales, and closed sales have fallen since September 2022. On the other hand, the number of days on the market, inventory of homes for sale, and months supply of inventory increased. President Kendra Novak of GBRAR said in the last few months, the housing market seems to be picking up as more properties make their way to the market. She’s hopeful that there will be more inventory but said buyers are still reluctant to quickly pull the trigger. 'I’m hoping that it somewhat stabilizes first,' said Novak. 'And as buyers begin to return to the market, I think we are shifting where right now they somewhat have the power, basically to say no, I’m not paying that amount of money.'"
Market Place. "At the end of last year Clark Ivory was getting really concerned about his business. He’s CEO of Ivory Homes, a building company in Utah. When interest rates spiked, 'We just saw traffic go to almost nothing, and sales really dried up,' he said. Now though they’re in a much better position. 'We sorta found our footing, we figured out what we needed to do to buy down interest rates to make it still affordable for people,' said Ivory. Today they’re able to offer mortgage rates around six or six-and-a-half percent, much better than eight."
A press release. "More homebuyers looked to leave Austin, TX than move in during the third quarter, according to Redfin. That’s the first time on record there hasn’t been a net inflow into the Texas capital. Redfin’s records go back through 2017. By mid-2022, when Austin home prices peaked, prices were up more than 75% from before the pandemic. Austin’s median home price is down about 5% year over year, the biggest decline in the U.S., and it’s down nearly 20% from its pandemic peak. 'I’m telling buyers that this is the first time in years they can get a deal on a house, even with high mortgage rates,' said Austin Redfin Premier agent Carmen Gioia. 'It’s probably a better time to buy down than waiting for mortgage rates to drop, because once that happens, competition will escalate and prices will shoot up. Right now, buyers are able to take their sweet time, negotiate with sellers, and buy a home without getting into a wild bidding war.'"
The Seattle Times. "A Bellevue investment firm is facing bankruptcy and legal trouble after allegations of raising millions of dollars from investors, many of whom are Chinese nationals and immigrants, then failing to finish promised real estate projects and repay investors. Operating for around a decade, iCap raised money telling investors it planned to develop apartment complexes, mixed-use buildings and senior housing throughout Washington, according to court filings. ICap and its subsidiaries operated more than two dozen affiliated companies and appeared to own at least 10 properties in the state, including sites in Seattle, Tacoma, Bremerton, Lynnwood and Vancouver. Some sites remain undeveloped despite promises to investors, lawsuits allege."
"Trouble began for investors this spring when the company stopped paying monthly interest payments, citing challenges hitting the slowing real estate market. It’s not clear how many investors bought promissory notes from iCap companies or how much the company owes, but bankruptcy filings list more than 2,700 people and entities owed money and total financial liabilities between $100 million and $500 million. The company owes nearly $196,000 in payroll taxes to the IRS and $11,000 in property taxes to Snohomish County for a property in Lynnwood, according to bankruptcy filings. Dozens of Chinese investors are among those owed money, sparking a lawsuit this summer alleging iCap 'specifically targeted Chinese immigrants who relocated to Washington and Chinese nationals with their marketing efforts.'"
"'According to that case, a group of 28 investors invested more than $17.5 million and have not been fully repaid. 'My clients — all of whom are from China, and many of whom do not speak English — invested their savings with iCap so they could improve their lives or the lives of their families here in the U.S.,' attorney John Bender said in a statement to The Seattle Times. The investors 'have been completely devastated by the revelations over the past few months' and 'are committed to holding accountable those who are found to have misled unsuspecting investors or who have engaged in other misconduct,' Bender said."
Mission Local in California. "Patrick Quinlan sat hunched outside the Memorial Court Gates across City Hall, hoping the next few phone calls he’d make could keep his dream of building housing alive. Back in 1978, Quinlan purchased land in Bernal Heights, hoping to develop it and fund his retirement. After some navigating unworkable plans and neighbors’ opposition since plans submitted in the ‘90s, Quinlan finally secured the entitlements in 2019: Five sets of duplexes at 1513 York St., totaling 10 units. Instead, on Tuesday the lender Gerrard McConville foreclosed on the property after Quinlan stopped making mortgage payments, thus closing the final chapter on the 81-year-old’s sisyphean development saga. 'After 44 years, I don’t get anything,' Quinlan said. Quinlan’s hopes died not with a bang, but an auction."
Market Watch. "Bids are coming due on the biggest commercial-real estate transaction of its kind, at a crucial moment for property markets. When the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in March seized $33.2 billion of assets from New York’s Signature Bank after it failed, the banking regulator also inherited a tangled web of about $15 billion of loans mostly on rent-stabilized or rent-controlled buildings in New York City. Some in the industry have taken to calling those loans 'toxic.' It’s footprint in the city was estimated to span almost 3,000 buildings, representing nearly 80,000 homes, according to New York City Comptroller Brad Lander. An investigation by The City, a nonprofit New York City newsroom, found tenants at some well-managed buildings in the Signature Bank portfolio, but also 'hundreds of vulnerable properties' where tenants are suffering and values have 'plummeted.' Real-estate brokerage firm Newmark is overseeing the Signature Bank portfolio sales, but the FDIC also can opt to delay or pull assets from the market if bid levels come in too low."
The Globe and Mail in Canada. "Unpaid contractors and unsatisfied buyers are demanding answers from a Toronto-area developer that is years behind on delivering multiple condominium projects. Vandyk Properties and owner John C. Vandyk have a decades-long history of building primarily low- and mid-rise residential multifamily projects. According to court records, in recent years it has secured hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to rapidly expand. But work has stalled on a half-dozen Vandyk projects. There are hundreds of preconstruction buyers and real estate agents waiting on Vandyk as well."
"Akshay Sehgal is a condo sales specialist with Re/Max Plus City Team who said that agents who sold preconstruction units at Vandyk sites are still waiting for partial commissions that have been owed to them for years. 'I’m not asking anybody to cry for real estate agents … I know about 40-50 agents that did that and did not get paid,' Mr. Sehgal said. Hundreds of buyers are also trapped. 'I’m just hoping they are not going to go bankrupt,' said Dean Khan, who worries about getting his deposit back and or some day getting his condo."
"'I go there on a daily basis to look, to see what’s moved,' said Casendra Vijaya, who purchased in 2017. 'I’ve been renting now and I lived with my parents for longer. … I should have bought a house by now, but my money is stuck.' She also recently received unsolicited advice from a Vandyk receptionist when she contacted the company for an explanation as to why work has stopped at the site: 'She told me just stop going and looking.'"
The Evening Standard in the UK. "In the early summer the sun was shining, the air was scented with lilac and Kam Babaee was full of optimism when he put his former family home on to the market for £7.95 million. The magnificent seven-bedroom Gothic vicarage in Chiswick had just been fully renovated and Babaee thought that another family would snap it up. But over the weeks that followed, his optimism faded along with the lilac blossom. Buyers came to look. One even made an offer but could not raise the cash and had to drop out. Last month, Babaee bowed to the inevitable and knocked a cool £1 million off his asking price. The house is now listed with Dexters for £6.95 million."
"Across prime London, homeowners are reaching similar conclusions. Trophy mansions, beloved family homes, glamorous townhouses on famous streets and fabulous lateral flats on garden squares are all having seven-figure sums shaved off their asking prices to tempt buyers over the threshold. Some owners simply want to unload surplus homes, even at a loss. Buying agent Camilla Dell is currently acting for a client who is in the process of buying a house in Knightsbridge. 'Its owner is a billionaire, he bought it at the peak of the market, and he put it on sale for significantly less than he paid for it,' she says. 'He is selling it for even less, because he just doesn’t need it any more. It is not just super-distressed sellers who are cutting prices.' 'Finally, the penny is dropping,' says Dell. 'Anyone who wants to sell a property has got to be realistic, because buyers are super sensitive about price.'"
The Irish Independent. "31 out of 43 of the homes on the Tobar Mhuire development site in Creagh Demesne in Gorey remain unfinished since the site closed in December 22, 2022. 'My gripe here is that I don’t believe that at this moment in time with the building site closed for ten months that Wexford County Council are pulling out all the stops to sort out whatever issue that is holding up the site and why the site is closed. The limbo at the moment is just a waste of everybody’s time and it’s actually giving the two fingers to everybody on the housing list,' said Councillor Joe O’Sullivan."
ABC News in Australia. "Hundreds of failed construction companies are suspected of insolvent trading, but not one has been prosecuted by the watchdog responsible for holding them to account. One of those home owners is Christine Tugwell, whose builder went under in May, with the company's liquidator finding it had likely been trading insolvent for 'at least six months.' Ms Tugwell said the building franchise, Stroud Homes Northern Rivers, asked her to make extra payments in the months before it entered liquidation, and she had to borrow money from a relative to cover the unexpected cost."
"Her builder, Matthew Lowson, is accused of accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in deposits from other customers during this time, without insuring them. Ms Tugwell and her partner Oliver, who are in their 30s, said they were struggling to find more than $1,200 a week to cover the mortgage on their unfinished house and land and their rent, while awaiting an insurance payout to select another builder. 'We're roughing it out in a one-bedroom tiny home and are putting plans to have a second baby on hold until we can get this sorted,' Ms Tugwell said. 'I'm working extra night shifts and weekends when he can look after our daughter and he's working during the week, we're tag teaming it.'"
South China Morning Post. "Hong Kong's luxury home market, which has been dealt a triple whammy of lower economic activity in mainland China, elevated global interest rates and higher mortgage costs, is poised for disappointment at this week's policy speech by the city's chief executive. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu will deliver his second policy speech in the Legislative Council at 11am on Wednesday and the market anticipates some rollback of the property cooling measures announced earlier. Despite sellers reducing their asking prices, the luxury housing market has yet to witness an influx of buyers. The transaction volume for residential properties valued at or above HK$20 million (US$2.56 million) has plummeted by 52 per cent in the third quarter."
"The luxury market has been flooded with new flats in recent months, with unsold inventory levels in completed projects at the highest level since 2007. This could put pressure on property values at a time when the investment environment continues to deteriorate. 'We anticipate a decline in luxury home prices of up to 5 per cent in 2023 and another 5 per cent in 2024 due to elevated interest rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and sizeable unsold stocks,' according to JLL."
The Wall Street Journal. "With China’s property bust threatening to sink the country’s economic recovery, Xi Jinping is looking for someone to blame. After putting the billionaire founder of Evergrande, a heavily indebted property firm, under investigation for possible crimes, Beijing is expanding its probes to include bankers and financial institutions that facilitated developers’ risky behavior, people familiar with the matter say. Among those under scrutiny: a former head of Bank of China, one of the country’s biggest lenders, the people said. While meeting with senior officials last month, Xi made it clear he wants no stone left unturned when it comes to disciplining a real-estate industry that at its peak made up as much as a quarter of China’s economy."
"The end of China’s property boom has saddled the country with debt, spooked investors and left many consumers unwilling to spend. Another focus of the Hui probe, people close to Beijing said, is whether Hui and his management team engaged in illegal fundraising activities, such as giving kickbacks to banking executives in exchange for loans. Following news of the investigation into Hui, dubbed 'Brother Belt' by many in China for his penchant for Hermès belts, videos of his lavish lifestyle—including a dancing troupe he kept on the company’s payroll to entertain bankers and other VIPs, despite its financial stress—have flooded China’s tightly monitored social media, a sign of Beijing’s intention to make an example of him."
"Meanwhile, developers’ financial distress is dragging down home sales and housing starts as they run out of money to finish projects and build new ones. Weakening home prices are squeezing developers even more and slowing China’s rebound from dismal growth this summer. In a sign of potential wider risks, fears of Evergrande’s financial troubles sparked a run this month on a small bank in northern China’s Hebei province. Depositors lined up at the Bank of Cangzhou after social-media posts said the bank’s lending to Evergrande totaled 3.4 billion yuan, equivalent to $465 million, which would make it one of the developer’s top 20 bank creditors."