It's Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. "When Neil Harris moved his family to Miami from Tennessee in 2020 during Covid, he signed a $29,500-a-month lease for a beachfront apartment that he said was 'well worth it.' In April, Harris rented a six-bedroom house in Miami’s Keystone Islands. While it was originally listed for $40,000 a month last year, he got the waterfront home with a dock for $27,500. 'I’m saving $20,000 a month and I’ve got everything I want,' he said. 'Two years ago, people needed a roof over their head—you’d have 12 offers and everyone was just trying to find a place,' said Miami real-estate agent Christopher Wands of Douglas Elliman. 'Those days are kind of over.'"

"Meanwhile, Miami is bracing for a glut of inventory. Currently, there are about 70,300 luxury apartments in Miami with another 30,000 under construction, according to the Florida Apartment Association. By comparison, the total luxury inventory was about 53,440 in 2020. At the Missoni Baia condo tower in Edgewater, new units are listed daily for sale and rent, according to Compass agent Ivan Chorney, who is listing a two-bedroom apartment there. The unit came on the market for $15,000 a month in August and is now asking $14,000, he said. Though the unit has unobstructed views, he’s only gotten lowball offers. 'My client doesn’t have leverage,' he said. Chorney said the client recently decided to sell the unit, and plans to list it for $2.8 million."

"It's looking as if Austin — and Texas — won't be getting its first Conrad Hotel, at least not for now. Last year, North American developer Intracorp announced plans to build a 65-story high-rise on a half block just west of the Austin Convention Center. The building, to be at East Second and Trinity streets, was to house the first Conrad hotel in Texas, along with luxury condominiums. Now there's been a change. CBRE, the global commercial real estate services firm, is marketing the entire half block, or portions of it, for sale. 'All options are on the table and we recognize the value of being flexible in today’s environment,' Brad Stein, president of Intracorp Texas, told the Statesman."

"At the end of a cul-de-sac in Los Angeles’s gated Hidden Hills neighborhood, Sylvester Stallone has sold his sprawling residence to Creedence Clearwater Revival co-founder John Fogerty. The 'Fortunate Son' in the deal would certainly appear to be Fogerty, 78, who paid $17.2 million for the mansion — $1 million less than the $18.15 million 'Rocky' star, 77, paid for the pad less than 2 years ago, in spring 2022 — and $5.3 million less than his $22.5 million asking price for it."

"San Francisco apartment buildings now trade at 2014 prices, according to data from a Compass report on the market for buildings with five or more units. What agents are not seeing are the big institutional investors buyers who had bought nearly every building over 12 units in the city that came to the market in at least the last 10 years. They are largely absent from the marketplace as they contend with the impact of the rising cost of the debt on their existing portfolios. Veritas, for example, was once one of the city’s biggest apartment owners and a very active buyer. It has now defaulted on about a third of its San Francisco portfolio. Looking at Compass data through the third quarter of this year, seems like a glimpse back in time. Average gross rent multipliers are at 12, the lowest since 2011, which is also the last time cap rates were higher than today’s 5.7 percent. The average price per unit is $359,000, the lowest since 2014."

"A new report says Toronto's condo market could be headed for a slowdown amid high interest rates and a dearth of buyers. Overall, the volume of condo and townhouse sales in the GTA is down 12.8 per cent compared to the first eight months of last year, while the average sale price for condos and townhomes sits at $747,040, down 6.2 per cent from the same period last year. 'Opportunities exist in the current environment as a growing number of assignments come to market,' the report said. 'Many of these buyers purchased condominiums during the pre-construction phase at a time when interest rates were at record lows. As the buildings near completion, many are unable to qualify at new interest rate levels, leaving them no choice but to sell their units.'"

"The UK is facing a 'double whammy' as higher-for-longer interest rates begin to bite. Look at a list of companies whose debt is trading at wide discounts to par and you can see just how widespread the suffering has become across the economy. Loans and bonds linked to the likes of the Canary Wharf financial center, travel agency Saga Plc and lender Metro Bank Holdings Plc, which has just announced a capital raise and a haircut for some bondholders, are trading at distressed levels. Private sector landlords are more vulnerable than their listed counterparts because they took on more leverage and, with prices falling, lenders may demand that they sell assets to recoup their loans. 'Forced private sales could push property prices down further and increase pressure on the higher levered listed companies,' said Sue Munden, a senior real estate analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence."

"Hong Kong mortgage loans that exceed the property’s value are likely to reach their highest since 2005 next year if home prices keep falling, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Rising interest rates are weighing on the city’s home market, with used property values falling 18% from their peak in 2021, according to data from Centaline Property Agency Ltd. Banks may struggle with losses and foreclosures stemming from a higher number of underwater mortgages, according to BI. Hong Kong has seen the number of foreclosed homes rise, with such properties for sale climbing to the most since 2009 in September. Banks have been struggling to offload them despite discounts."

"China's outlook is complicated by the rise of financial instruments that help investors manage risks in good times but accelerate downturns in bear markets, as the global financial crisis showed 15 years ago. A recent court decision in Shanghai on a case of asset-backed security fraud warns of potential dangers. Asset-backed securities were introduced in China in 2005 in a pilot scheme, which was suspended at the end of 2008 amid the financial meltdown worldwide. Viewing securitisation as an important source of alternative financing, Beijing resumed the scheme in 2012 after enacting more comprehensive regulation."

"So why be concerned? In the last global financial crisis, asset-backed securities played an outsized role in quickening the cascade of troubles, in which the values of asset-backed securities collapsed within hours and investment banks imploded. Credit markets were devastated, shutting out even qualified homebuyers, whose frenzied purchases caused real estate prices to soar. The complexities of asset-backed securities made it difficult to assess losses, compounding the collapse of trust in financial markets. When it all crashed, the emperor had no clothes on."

"In China's first case of asset-backed security fraud, a Shanghai court recently held that the underlying assets of Meijite Dengdu Management Co and their cash flows had been grossly misstated. The court ordered the five defendants to pay Postal Savings Bank of China the principal sum and interest due on its 967 million yuan investment in Meijite. Whether this is a one-off case remains to be seen. Problems with asset-backed securities also jeopardise savings held with trust companies. When investors lose money, public trust and confidence disappears, slashing demand for securities, which in turn increases borrowing costs. The opaqueness of asset-backed securities can only compound investors' fears. No one wants to be the fool catching falling knives."