Some Housing Investors To Offload Condos Because Of The Financial Strain
A report from the Real Deal. "For just under $22 million, a pocket-minded buyer in New York can get a free beach club membership, a boat and a Tesla. They’ll just need to buy a $2.8 million Red Hook townhouse for the car, a $12 million waterfront home in Water Mill that comes with a boat, and a $6.5 million beach-adjacent home in Montauk offering a Gurney’s membership. It isn’t exactly bargain hunting, but the combined value of the freebies is somewhere in the realm of $100,000. While the throw-ins at the Montauk and Water Mill listings would have happened regardless of market conditions, Eugene Litvak, the listing agent at 115A King Street in Red Hook, said the addition of a Tesla Model Y was intended to get buyers to look past high interest rates. 'If somebody comes in at full asking price, let me give away a Tesla. I think it’s going to make some waves,' said Litvak, explaining his pitch to the seller."
Business Insider. "Western mountain towns — with their scenic views and access to outdoor activities — have been growing at a fast clip since before the pandemic. Vail, Colorado, an expensive ski town a little less than 100 miles outside of Denver, could be viewed as a cautionary tale for other budding ski towns. The median sold home price in Vail is $1.1 million as of August, and peaked at $1.97 million in February, according to Realtor.com."
The Tahoe Daily Tribune. "Traditionally, the onset of colder temperatures tends to coincide with a slowdown in the real estate market. However, in the unique microcosm of Incline Village and Crystal Bay, this has not been the case. Notably, several homes that had been lingering on the market have recently gone pending. For instance, 1061 Lakeshore Blvd., originally listed for $14,500,000, is now listed at $11,500,000 and entered pending status after a total of 656 days. Similarly, 135 Selby, initially listed with a different agent at $11,450,000, is now listed for $9,200,000 and also went pending after a total of 303 days on the market."
From NBC News. "Tens of millions of Americans with federal student loan debt have had a financial reprieve for more than three years as a pandemic-era repayment pause was extended multiple times since March 2020. Now many face a new reality on Sunday, Oct. 1.Keith Kruchten, 40, Rockford, Ill. Expected monthly payment: $375. Trade-offs: Keeping a 21-year-old car, putting off housing repairs, skipping activities with his two children. 'Like most folks, I’m about $500 underwater every month when all the bills are paid. So, it gets stacked onto the credit cards,' he said. 'I’m 40 now and have no significant retirement savings and feel like I’ve done everything that you’re supposed to do along the way, that we’re taught as kids.' Kruchten, who works as an operations manager and is a board member of Rockford Promise, an organization that aims to send public school students to college tuition-free, said he plans to soon decide 'which house repair gets delayed another month.'"
From Bisnow. "Build-to-rent gained significant momentum over the last three years as rising prices forced would-be homeowners to remain renters. 'Even though they have the capital and they could outbid many people buying these homes, it becomes whether they can buy it at the price point that makes sense for their algorithm,' said Craig Torrance, CEO of MCS, a national provider of residential and commercial property services. 'The competitiveness in the market is going to be driven by the appreciation of these assets, and at which point does it just not make sense?' 'They’re usually afterthoughts in the back of a community,' Mark Wolf, CEO of AHV Communities said of the properties acquired from homebuilders in existing developments. 'If they were the best houses they had, they’d sell them to the public market at a higher price.'"
The Wall Street Journal. "Many of the cranes crowding skylines from Phoenix to Denver and Dallas will soon come down. They are likely to stay down for a long time. The number of new apartments starting development has fallen dramatically this year, a consequence of higher interest rates, declining rents and what in some places looks like overbuilding. Falling starts come on the heels of record apartment construction across the U.S. More rental buildings are expected to open this year and next than at any time since the 1980s, according to some forecasts. That crush of new rental supply is driving up apartment vacancies and causing rent growth to flatten or even turn negative in some places."
"'In the Dallas metro area, where new construction has also tumbled, developers that expanded to untested neighborhoods are pulling back. 'The primary example is [far] on the north side where, frankly, you’re getting close to Oklahoma at that point,' said Greg Willett, first vice president at Institutional Property Advisors."
The North Bay Business Journal in California. "Two months after construction halted on what was set to be Windsor’s largest housing project in decades because of 'evolving economic issues,' the 14-year effort to redevelop a former mobile home park is back with a new development team and a much different project. The housing portion, most recently called Vintage Oaks on the Town Green, was approved seven years ago for 387 units in three- and four-story buildings on 18.4 acres. Demolition and grading started last year, with plans to build 120 units in the first of three phases. But work stopped in July because that project was no longer economically viable, the Business Journal reported."
"Eric Higuchi, co-founder of 330 Land Company LLC, the new developer, declined to comment Friday on the economics behind the project change. He did, however, note such reasons in his letter to the town. 'Due to rising interest rates, the development of new multifamily communities, in nearly all California markets, is presently not economically viable,' Higuchi wrote."
From Bloomberg. "Office prices in the US are due for a crash, and the commercial real estate market faces at least another nine months of declines, according to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey. About two-thirds of the 919 respondents surveyed by Bloomberg believe that the US office market will only rebound after a severe collapse. An even greater majority says that US commercial real estate prices won’t hit bottom until the second half of 2024 or later. But lenders looking to offload their exposure now are finding few palatable options, because there aren’t many buyers convinced the market is close to a bottom. 'Nobody wants to sell at a huge loss,' said Lea Overby, an analyst at Barclays Plc. 'These are properties that don’t need to be sold for long periods of time, and that means holders are likely to delay a sale as long as they can.'"
From Reuters. "The U.S. bond market is calling a moment: the age of low interest rates and inflation that began with the 2008 financial crisis has ended. What follows is unclear. The market's view has come into sharp focus in recent days amid a dramatic run-up in 10-year Treasury yields that hit 16-year highs. 'We have moved into a new era here,' said Greg Whiteley, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. 'It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. It's going to be working to keep it down.'"
The Canadian Press. "With interest rates increasingly expected to stay higher for longer, many of the homeowners who locked in low rates years ago are likely bracing themselves for financial pain as their mortgage comes up for renewal. Borrowers with variable rates but fixed monthly payments will face the greatest increases ahead as some have had their payments only cover the interest costs, or not even that. People with these products face an expected 44 per cent average rise in payments by 2026 as their mortgages reset. More than 46 per cent of Canadian mortgages had payment schedules longer than 25 years as of the second quarter, according to the Bank of Canada, an amount that’s been steadily rising from around 32 per cent in the summer of 2020. Many mortgage amortizations at Canada’s biggest banks now stretch past 30 years, from 24 per cent of mortgages at RBC to 30 per cent at BMO, with the vast majority going beyond 35 years. CIBC and TD Bank fall somewhere in between those two."
"Meaghan Hastings, chief executive of The Mortgage Coach brokerage, said she's heard from clients who are surprised to learn just how high interest rates have climbed, especially since they have to pass the mortgage stress test if they want to switch lenders. The test is pushing more borrowers into the alternative lending market, she said. Hastings said she does expect some housing investors to offload some condos because of the financial strain, but that overall, most homeowners will do what it takes to hold on to their property, whether it’s selling their car, taking a job or whatever else they can figure out. 'Canadians in general will do really anything possible to keep their home. We love being homeowners.'"
Domain News in Australia. "Sydney’s property market is picking up overall, but the median unit price in some suburbs is lower than it was five years ago. In neighbourhoods where new apartment development has outpaced demand, prices have come under pressure, Domain figures show. The steepest fall was in Rushcutters Bay, where the median unit price over the year to June was $690,000, down 19.4 per cent from five years earlier. The harbourfront neighbourhood includes a significant stock of smaller, studio or one-bedroom units, and their growth prospects can be limited."
"It was followed by Chippendale (down 19.2 per cent in five years to a median of $727,500) and Blacktown (down 18.9 per cent to $430,000). Eastgardens, Harris Park, Eastwood, Rosehill, Wiley Park and Rosebery recorded falls of 16 per cent or deeper. Buyer’s agent Rich Harvey said many neighbourhoods on the list were affected by a high supply of apartments either within the suburb or nearby, such as Harris Park, Rosehill, Merrylands and Granville. Competition for rentals was not as strong as elsewhere, he said. 'I would say to any buyer, you really need to have a clear understanding of the volume of new developments coming into these areas,' he said. 'If there’s going to be 1000 apartments built or 2000 apartments built – which could be built with the new densities – that has an immediate dilution effect on the price of your property.'"
South China Morning Post. "People who had agreed to buy homes at a residential complex under construction in downtown Shanghai have expressed dismay at the pace of the development, which resumed a month ago, raising the prospect of a boycott on mortgage payments that threatens to worsen sentiment in China's embattled property sector. Since August 31, only a handful of workers have been conducting building work at The One-Rivera Shanghai, a project led by Shanghai Dongying Real Estate and located on Puyi Road in Pudong, according to two buyers who signed home purchase contracts and declined to be identified."
"One buyer said the cash-strapped developer did not appear close to completing the project, and the recent resumption of development work looked 'half-hearted' - likely a temporary measure to soothe outside concerns. No heavy equipment or workers were seen at the construction site when this reporter visited on Sunday during China's week-long National Day holiday. Construction had stalled at The One-Rivera Shanghai, which consists of about 300 flats in two buildings, after a liquidity crunch hit Dongying in early 2022. Homeowners in the first building were supposed to get their keys by March 12, 2022, while the second lot was set to delivered on December 10, 2022, according to the buying contracts."
"Located within Shanghai's Inner Ring Road, an elevated expressway loop, The One-Rivera offered flats at about 110,000 yuan (US$15,080) per square metre, with prices ranging from 15 million yuan to more than 30 million yuan. Homebuyers interviewed by the Post in late September declined to say if or when they would stop repaying mortgage loans. 'A mortgage boycott is likely because delivery of the expensive homes has been delayed for more than 500 days, which has already infuriated buyers,' said Yin Ran, an angel and property investor in Shanghai. 'Given that the developer is stuck in a liquidity crisis, it is difficult to see a happy ending to the drama any time soon.'"