A report from Money Wise. "Home prices in 18 of the largest 50 cities in the U.S. fell between the four-week period ending Jan. 15 compared to the same period time a year before, says Redfin. In San Francisco, prices fell 10.1% year-over-year. Other cities experiencing price drops are San Jose, Austin, Detroit and Phoenix. According to the NAR, we may see expensive markets fall further, which if that happens sooner than later, would make it an excellent time to buy into an expensive market. 'Markets in roughly half of the country are likely to offer potential buyers discounted prices compared to last year,' noted NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun."

The Wall Street Journal. "Chen Zhao, economics research lead at Redfin, estimated that total existing-home sales in 2023 would amount to around 4.1 million, which would mark the smallest number of sales since about 2008. Zhao said sales are unlikely to pick up much next year, with mortgage rates likely to remain at elevated levels. 'We’re in for a fairly prolonged freeze,' she said. Almost 18% of homes listed in September had price reductions, the highest level since November 2022, according to Realtor.com."

"'The market has definitely started slowing,' said Steven Fischer, a real-estate agent in Savannah, Ga. 'Everyone’s doing open houses, everyone’s doing price reductions, and now sellers are offering a lot of incentives to get buyers to buy their house.' Desiree Edgington first listed her mother’s three-bedroom ranch-style house in Hesston, Kan., for $650,000 in October 2022, a few months after her mother’s death. The house is now under contract for $400,000, with Edgington agreeing to pay a $7,000 credit to the buyers. 'We really expected it to sell right away, and then the rates went up and the rates went up again,' Edgington said. 'We had to keep dropping our price.'"

The News Press. "Twelve months after Ian left its mark on Southwest Florida, the housing market has certainly shifted. Over a recent seven-day period in late September, we saw over 900 active listings. During that same period, about 630 homes were sold. In my experience, that’s the first time in quite a while where the number of listings has surpassed the number of homes sold. In fact, the number of days that a listing remains on the market is increasing across Collier, Lee and Charlotte counties. This isn’t just a Southwest Florida phenomenon. Our firm, Call It Closed International Realty, works with agents, brokers, buyers and sellers across the country. From Denver and Los Angeles to Charlotte and Louisville, these patterns are playing out similarly. In the last year, we’ve seen the highest level of inventory that we’ve seen in the last four years."

The Washington Post. "When Austin’s tallest building officially opens later this year, all that office space will be empty. Meta has ditched its move-in plans and is now trying to sublease 589,000 square feet of offices, 1,626 parking spots, 17 private balconies and a half-acre of green space. So far: no takers. The skyscraper known as 'Sixth and Guadalupe' is the most glaring example in the city that made a huge bet on the post-pandemic commercial real estate economy. While other cities worry about a glut of office space as workers resist returning to the familiar 9-to-5 grind, Austin’s challenges are Texas-sized."

"Here, about 6 million square feet of new office space will hit the market in the next few years — equivalent to 105 football fields. Between spaces completed since 2020 and what’s still in the pipeline, the office market will grow nearly 25 percent — the fastest rate on the continent. And the vast majority of projects are blazing ahead without companies lined up to move in. Roughly 87 percent of new office space is expected to open vacant, according to data from the commercial real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield."

"Others fear the boom could quickly devolve into a bust, telling a cautionary tale about what happens when development outruns a local economy — and what’s left after the good times end. 'It’s just so striking that even after the economy has cooled off … all I see are cranes everywhere around me,' said Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives and a longtime Austin resident. 'There are ‘for lease’ signs on these brand-new, beautiful buildings. Who is going to go there? I don’t know.'"

"At the same time, though, all of the new space is driving down the value of decades-old buildings that are gradually hollowing out. On one downtown street corner, a drab 40-year-old building bears a large 'For Lease' banner. Right next door, construction crews were working on a 58-story luxury skyscraper. Jeff Graves, research director at Cushman & Wakefield, lived in Las Vegas during the 2007-2008 housing market crash and wonders if a similar bubble could come for Austin commercial real estate. So far, landlords would prefer to throw in perks, such as six months of free rent on a decade-long lease, before caving to a discount. That approach may only work for so long. And things could come to a head if lenders get antsy that they’re taking too much of a loss. 'No one wants to be the first to drop rates,' Graves said. 'They’re in for a lot of money.'"

The New Yorker on California. "In 2021, San Francisco had the highest per-capita income level of any major city in America—something that would have been almost inconceivable a couple of generations earlier. In 1995, the city’s average home value was about double the national mean; a quarter century later, it was five times as much. In February, mayor London Breed released what she called a 'Roadmap to San Francisco’s Future,' a set of policy tweaks that included simplifications to the small-business tax code. 'We are trying to make things a lot easier, more efficient,' she explained in her office. I asked whether leaning heavily on tech to build up downtown had been a mistake. 'We realize just how completely relying on office space, and mostly one industry, is not the right decision for any thriving downtown,' she conceded."

"Before the pandemic, thirty-eight per cent of San Francisco’s office space was occupied by the technology industry. 'We no longer manufacture things in San Francisco to speak of,' Rodney Fong, the president of the city’s Chamber of Commerce, told me. 'We’re the first to see our downtown as impacted as it is, because when we said ‘Work from home,’ everyone just grabbed a laptop, and boom!' That reliance on tech made downtown especially vulnerable."

"'The pandemic and fentanyl collided,' Lydia Bransten, the executive director of the Gubbio Project, which offers coffee, health services, and a safe place to nap to a hundred homeless people a day, told me. 'People in the throes of addiction were hanging out with other people in the throes of addiction without the rest of the community. Then the city reopened, and housed people coming out of their homes were confronted with this scene of absolute devastation. And they’re flabbergasted: ‘How could this happen? We’ve spent all this money!’ From 2021 to 2022, San Francisco spent seventy-six million dollars on drug-treatment programs; its homelessness budget was nearly seven hundred million dollars. But after living through their own pandemic challenges, people had what Bransten calls 'compassion fatigue.' 'It was a feeling of ‘Look at these people. Clearly nothing’s working,’ she told me."

Insauga in Canada. "Home prices remained high across the GTA last month, but that didn’t stop some communities from shifting into a buyer’s market and seeing properties sell for well below asking price. A recent breakdown of real estate numbers across Southern Ontario found that while sales were generally down in September. Some municipalities like Brampton (average list price $1,183,632) and Ajax (average list price $1,137,451) saw a gap of 11.98 per cent and 12.68 per cent respectively between the average sale and list prices. But others like Caledon (average list price $2,356,199) and Halton Hills average list price ($1,899,398) had the largest differentials 42.12 per cent and 42.94 per cent."

"In Halton Hills, that difference translates to a more than $815,600 gap between the average price sellers are listing and what homebuyers are actually paying, while Mississauga had an average asking price of $1,355,825 in September and an average sale price of $1,021,324 for a difference of 24.67 per cent of $334,501. All of the more than 30 municipalities examined in the report had an overall average sale price below the average list price, but Orangeville had the smallest difference between asking price ($908,292) and sale price ($756,906) at 10.9 per cent for a difference of more than $151,300. Zoocasa says that based on the September numbers, Oshawa and Orangeville are the 'most affordable' cities on the list, having an average price of $756,906, 13.60% lower than the average list price of $876,004."

"The report says that the ratio of sales to new listings (SNLR) across Southern Ontario and the GTA reflects sellers struggling as over a dozen regions including Brampton, Milton, Ajax have been classified as being in a buyer’s markets while another 16 'are in a balanced state.' 'While prices haven’t exactly declined in the GTA, sellers are having a tougher time due to the decline in interest driven by a lack of affordability,' the report reads. 'Many homes are selling for less than their listing price, while others are sitting on the market for long periods of time as those selling are less willing to budge.'"

Bisnow London. "The pressure on lenders and borrowers to deal with problem loans is ratcheting up, and 2024 will see a significant uptick in distressed sales. That was the verdict of a panel of lenders speaking at Bisnow’s Real Estate Outlook event in London, held at the Royal Institution of Great Britain. Consensual sales will come first as loans that need to be refinanced can’t be, due to higher interest rates, panellists said. Then things will start to get more acrimonious. Loans coming to maturity now were likely underwritten during the period from 2017 to 2021 when interest rates were at historic lows. In many cases, there is not enough income from properties to refinance debt at base rates of 5% when loans were originally underwritten at base rates of 1%. 'Lenders are saying to borrowers, ‘Put it on the market or we will enforce,’ Birchwood Real Estate Capital CEO Lorna Brown said. 'We’re already starting to see the number of exits ticking up.'"

From Bloomberg. "Germany’s housing sector slumped deeper into crisis as project cancellations hit a record, prompting construction companies to become more pessimistic about the future than ever before. In September, 21.4% of residential builders said they were affected by construction projects being called off, according to a survey by the Munich-based Ifo Institute. That was the highest level since records began in 1991 and worse than August’s 20.7%. 'The apartments that aren’t being started today will be missing from the rental market in two years’ time,' Klaus Wohlrabe, head of surveys at Ifo, said in the report. 'Many projects are no longer economically viable.'"

"As conditions deteriorate, the business climate for residential construction also plunged in September to its lowest level since the survey began in 1991, Ifo said. Almost half of companies complained about a lack of orders. 'That’s a threefold increase over the past 12 months, which is a dramatic development,' Wohlrabe said. 'The conditions for new construction are difficult, to say the least.'"