Artificial High Valuation And Hubris Preceded The Eventual Crash
A report from the Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. "Homebuyers who missed out on the buyer's market last year might soon be getting another opportunity for value. 'Buyers are going to get another chance at a buyer's market,' said Tina Tamboer, senior housing analyst for The Cromford Report. There are some cities in the peripheral areas of the Valley where it's already a buyer's market, she said, pointing to Queen Creek, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Litchfield Park. 'Surprise, Peoria and Sun City are in balance,' she said. 'Everything else is a seller's market.'"
The Dallas Morning News in Texas. "The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market slowed in October, bringing the region’s median home price below $400,000 for the first time since March. 'We have seen a tremendous drop in the volume of sales activity,' said Todd Luong, a real estate agent in Frisco with Re/Max DFW Associates. 'Although higher mortgage rates have helped to lower prices somewhat, it has not been enough to make things affordable for many buyers currently in the market.' 'If the home is move-in, turn-key ready, it will go into multiple offers,' said Shana Acquisto, president of the Collin County Association of Realtors. 'If it’s not, it’s going to sit.' She said many clients are turning to seller or owner financing and that other sellers may offer to buy down mortgage rates in place of price reductions."
The Houston Chronicle in Texas. "Houston-area home sales continue to fall, closing in on a slump not seen since the Great Recession of 2007-09. Year-over-year sales in the region fell for the 19th straight month in October as potential buyers paused plans amid mortgage rates at their highest levels in two decades. During the recession in the late aughts, Houston-area home sales fell for a string of 24 months, from September 2007 to August 2009. 'The Houston real estate market had an encore performance of slower home sales and solid rental activity in October, and we can probably expect those trends to prevail for the rest of the year,' HAR Chair Cathy Treviño said in the report. 'Housing inventory has grown steadily in recent months and pricing has moderated, so any notable decline in mortgage rates will likely spark renewed interest in homebuying, but only the Fed can control whether that happens.'"
"Caroline Bean, an agent with Compass who sells in the River Oaks, Avalon, West University Place and Memorial areas, said higher mortgage rates are slowing purchases. Sellers, meanwhile, are having to adjust expectations as comparable sales of six months ago may not be as realistic as homes become more expensive to finance. The days of putting a sign in the yard and buyers lining up to bid appear to be in the rearview mirror. 'Within the last three weeks or so, houses have had to take price reductions,' Bean said. 'We've seen under asking (price) offers and longer days on the market, which I'm very hopeful and expect that to change once the rates come back down.'"
Building Salt Lake in Utah. "Two construction supply companies have asked a state court to foreclose on a set of properties associated with the developer Q Factor, its owners and a web of their affiliated companies that abruptly closed last month. Those buildings include Industry SLC, the marquee project credited as catalytic for redevelopment in the Granary District, and a number of buildings that are still under construction throughout Salt Lake City and the Wasatch Front. The filings are only the latest sign that trouble continues to mount for the owners of a development company at the center of the slate of Salt Lake City construction companies that failed last month."
"Multiple creditors have filed suit seeking payment for work they’ve done in recent months but say they haven’t been paid for by Makers Line, the general contracting company that was owned by H. Jason Winkler, who also owns Q Factor. Jason Winkler declined to comment for the story and didn’t respond to a list of questions about his businesses and the status of money that numerous employees told Building Salt Lake they haven’t been paid for work they conducted before Winkler’s companies folded in late October."
"The web of companies associated with the Winklers were offering labor and materials from any number of companies all providing services required to construct buildings. From sheetrock to concrete to steel to general construction, placemaking and design, the Winklers’ companies became a one-stop shop for investors who were looking to capitalize on the low-rate environment fueling Utah’s commercial construction boom over the past decade. That construction boom came to an abrupt end when the Federal Reserve raised borrowing rates to their highest level in over two decades, bringing new commercial real estate development to a near standstill."
The Belleville News-Democrat in Illinois. "The late Mayor Mark Eckert wore one of the chain’s bright-orange aprons and used a power saw to cut a piece of plywood instead of a ribbon. He spoke of the city’s future along the Illinois 15 corridor. Sixteen years later, the 50-acre development of retail stores, restaurants and other businesses has hit a rough patch. Tenants and city officials have been complaining about tall weeds, malfunctioning signs, overflowing trash receptacles and potholes in the parking lot for years. Several large storefronts are empty. The main strip mall within the shopping center is in court-ordered receivership due to defaults on bank loans."
"Owner Jonathan Larmore and his family 'have been diverting Company assets to fund their unbelievably lavish lifestyle,' according to a civil lawsuit filed in May and voluntarily dismissed without prejudice in October in federal court. It could be filed again. The lawsuit pointed to the family’s 12 residences, two airplanes, boats, vehicles and other 'luxury toys' and accused them of throwing 'six-figure' parties, including one for their dog’s birthday. The investors argued that, while all this was going on, Belleville Crossing was falling into disrepair."
Multi-Housing News. "Navigating the multifamily real estate landscape through the discerning eyes of institutional players offers a varied spectrum of insights and evolving strategies. Our detailed analysis of feedback from over 30 prominent institutional joint venture partners sheds light on the contemporary narratives defining the market. There’s also a marked change in investor sentiment with regard to the the once-favored pre-1990s era value-add assets. Today’s narrative has dramatically shifted as most institutions now sidestep these assets. The few that show interest demand returns on par with high-risk development projects, specifically an IRR exceeding 20 percent. Concerns around functional obsolescence, rising renovation costs, and the inherent risks that generally fail to justify returns underpin this shift."
"Rent growth paints a picture of cautious optimism. Projections of around 3 percent rent growth are common in many regions, but there’s palpable unease in overbuilt areas, notably within the Sun Belt. Here, the pendulum swings towards flat or even negative growth due to oversupply concerns and doubts about timely product absorption. Feedback indicates that institutional partners are heavily inclined towards assets displaying signs of distress. The allure isn’t restricted to traditionally distressed assets but extends to those with compelling stories: sellers pinned by floating rate debt, those entangled in liquidity challenges due to redemption issues, or properties tethered to failed business strategies. The collective sentiment is clear: Assets without a distressed backstory find fewer takers."
From Bloomberg. "WeWork Inc.’s bankruptcy filing caps a years-long saga that revealed breathtaking flaws in the investment style of Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son, damaging his professional reputation far beyond the money he lost. Son overrode his lieutenants’ objections and handed WeWork founder Adam Neumann billions of dollars from both SoftBank Group Corp. and the Vision Fund, lifting the co-working office space’s valuation to an astronomical $47 billion in early 2019. Just months later, investors balked at the deep losses and conflicts of interest WeWork’s IPO filings revealed."
"'You can recover from mistakes, but how do you recover from the perception that you don’t know what you’re doing?' said Aswath Damodaran, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. 'His actions say, ‘I am arrogant.’"
"The impact of Son’s infatuation with WeWork and other startups was magnified by the initial $60 billion committed by the Saudi and Abu Dhabi wealth funds to the first Vision Fund. Son’s determination to mint unicorns at breakneck speed by pushing startups to scale up inflated valuations around the world, as rivals such as Tiger Global Management and Sequoia Capital were pressured to match the Vision Fund’s big checks. It only took a few years for such values to come crashing down when spending failed to translate into sales, profits and IPOs. 'It is not just the investment losses that are important but the story behind it,' said Kirk Boodry, an analyst at Astris Advisory. 'The massive cash infusion drove the artificial high valuation and hubris that preceded the eventual crash.'"
The Globe and Mail. "For new Canadians, purchasing a first property is sometimes the fulfilment of the dream of a better life. But a group of buyers in a Cambridge, Ont., townhouse project are warning that an obscure section of Ontario tenant law can turn that dream into a nightmare. 'All the things went wrong. Nothing went right,” said Roland Shehaj, who bought a three-bedroom condo townhouse on Parkview Crescent in Cambridge Ont., in 2022. What he soon found out was that, because the townhouse was part of a complex that had been converted from purpose-built rentals to condominiums, he was not going to be able to move in so long as the tenants he inherited wanted to stay. 'I have a cousin who’s sort of a paralegal. He said, ‘You’re screwed.’"
"The couple started a family, and in 2020 Mr. Shehaj became a citizen. In April, 2022 near the peak of a frenzied real estate market, he paid $485,000 for a townhouse that he now finds his family can’t legally occupy. The family of five is still paying $2,000 a month for a two-bedroom apartment in Mississauga while also paying $2,100 a month for the townhouse mortgage, rent from which is just $1,300, or less than one-third of his costs. 'There’s no way out,' he said. 'I’m obligated to be liable for something I don’t want.' For the buyers, even a year later they still feel trapped and desperate. 'I understand I made a mistake,' said Mr. Shehaj, who has tried and failed to sell his unit for a price that won’t ruin him. 'This thing is not resolvable by any means.'"
I News in the UK. "As a growing number of people report defective new build homes, Alexandra Druzhinin, 49, tells i how her property purchase ruined her life. She lives in a new build flat in north London with her daughter, where she has been financially trapped for five years. 'I paid almost a million pounds for my new build property, and every day I wake into a nightmare. When my husband and I separated, we sold the family home, and I used my share to buy a luxury apartment in Camden, north London. It was supposed to be a new chapter in life for me and my daughter, who was 17 at the time, and studying for her A-Levels.'"
"'It was a brand-new property finished in 2018. Prior to purchasing, I viewed it four times and had an extensive survey carried out, so I never imagined anything could go wrong. But in 2019 we discovered damp and mould in the ceiling cavity of my daughter’s bedroom. When we removed the ceiling we found boards which were rotten and mouldy, and when a contractor drilled into the boards, black water gushed out of the ceiling – buckets of it. My neighbours also discovered leaks in their apartments. Shortly afterwards, large cracks appeared around the façade of the building.'"
"'I paid £900,000 up front for this apartment, plus fees, and I spent another £120,000 renovating it because even though it was marketed as a “luxury” property, the interiors were ill-fitting and shoddy. I’m lucky not to have a mortgage, but I’m constantly borrowing cash to subsidise my legal fight. I’ve spent £104,000 on legal fees so far, and between the three of us we’ve spent at least £325,000 fighting. We’re stuck in the middle between the developer who took our money, and the warranty provider who’s supposed to pay out if something goes wrong. Neither of them are taking responsibility. We’re trapped. I want to get paid out and I want to just forget that this happened – that this ever existed. I want to move on with my life.'"
From Bloomberg. "A $5.5 billion selloff in Ping An Insurance Group Co. is underscoring why a mooted takeover of distressed developer Country Garden Holdings Co. would be perilous for both the insurer and the Chinese financial system. Ping An has repeatedly denied a Reuters report on Wednesday that Chinese authorities asked the company to buy Country Garden — and analysts have put low odds on a deal materializing. Yet even the outside chance of a rescue has sent Ping An shares tumbling almost 7% over the past two sessions to the lowest level in a year. The market’s response offers a fresh reminder of why a Ping An-Country Garden combination might cause more problems than it solves."
"'Investors are worried that Ping An is being asked once more to clean up a mess, much like it did with China Fortune Land, which ended up being a huge drain on its finances,' said Li Xuetong, fund manager at Shenzhen Enjoy Investment Management Co. 'Any investment may take down Ping An,' given the depressed valuation of Chinese property assets, he added. Ping An may have no obligation or intention to take over the property company 'considering that it has already cut its position in Country Garden,' Nomura analysts including Shengbo Tang wrote in a note. 'It has also controlled its overall exposure to real estate which shows that it has learned a lesson from its investments in China Fortune Land.'"