It's Worrying, In The Future, How Are We Going To Sell It?
A report from Market Watch. "It’s an unwelcome blast from the past — home buyers are facing the most unaffordable housing market since the 1980s, according to a new report. 'Affordability pressure is not coming from interest rates alone, though,' said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at ICE. 'The last time affordability was this bad in the 80s, rates were in the double digits and the average home was about 3.5 times median income, in stark contrast to today’s price-to-income ratio of nearly 6-to-1.'"
The New Hampshire Union Leader. "Last month marked the fewest number of homes and condos sold on the Seacoast for an October in more than a decade. 'I don't think you can ignore that,' said Rachel Eames, owner/broker at RE/MAX Capital Realty in Concord and RE/MAX Coastal Living in Newmarket. 'The real estate market is shifting.' Up until about two months ago, nearly every property she handled during the preceding four years got multiple offers. Lately, 'we are on some properties, but not all properties,' she said, noting some properties aren't even getting a nibble."
The Boston Globe in Massachusetts. "New housing construction, both in the city of Boston and across the region, has fallen considerably this year. The economics behind both residential and commercial buildings 'are going to be under tremendous pressure in the next 18 to 24 months,' said John Fish, chief executive of Suffolk Construction, the largest general contractor in New England. 'It’s the first time in my career where the cost of construction is greater than the value created through construction.'"
The San Francisco Chronicle in California. "The sprawling piece of land billed as 'the largest remaining undeveloped residential waterfront parcel in Marin County and possibly the entire San Francisco Bay Area' just got yet another price cut. Reduced to a $12.9 million price tag last month, the more than 14 acres of vacant shoreline in Tiburon could be considered for sale at a 73% discount. The price for 2800 Paradise Drive ballooned to $47 million in 2017 and has shrunk at least seven times since, with the most recent list price of $12.9 million published in October 2023. Before that, it was reduced to $14.9 million in January 2023."
The Seattle Times in Washington. "The number of pending single-family home sales in King County last month was down nearly 15% from a year ago, according to new data released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The drop illustrates that the chill in the market is more than a typical fall slowdown. Home sellers and buyers made 44% fewer deals in October than in the same month in 2019, before the pandemic and low interest rates fueled a frenzy in the local housing market. Pierce, Snohomish and Kitsap counties recorded a similar trend. 'There is a lot of hesitation both on the buying and selling side,' said Anna Morgan, a John L. Scott agent whose office is in Bellevue, though her clients span the Greater Seattle area. While some listings still draw bidding wars, 'we have exited a market where decisions had to be made in a 24-hour period, you had to pay way over asking and waive contingencies to compete,' Morgan said."
The Wall Street Journal. "Cities hoping to convert emptying office buildings into apartments are running into financing issues, stagnating rental markets and other challenges that are bottling up their efforts. If developers manage to buy old office buildings for a low enough price, conversions are often still profitable, even with higher interest rates. But some major projects have hit the skids, and at least two are facing foreclosure. Developers of One Camelback, a 200,000-square-foot office building in central Phoenix, are trying to convert it into what would be one of the city’s most expensive rental-apartment properties. A website advertises $8,000-a-month apartments, with floor-to-ceiling windows and crystal-clear views of nearby mountains. But the developers, Sagamore Capital and partners defaulted on a loan of about $70 million. The project’s lender, Delphi Financial Group, has moved to foreclose."
"In downtown Dallas, developer Wolfe Investments seeks to convert an 18-story, 1950s office tower into residential apartments, but has recently been fighting off foreclosure from its lender, Thistle Creek Partners, court records show. Wolfe and Thistle Creek recently entered into a forbearance agreement, according to court records, which would give the developer more time to pay off its debts."
The Business of Homes. "If you have a realtor in your life, check in on them. Last week a landmark ruling in federal court threatened to upend the status quo for professionals in the real estate industry everywhere. 'Make no mistake, this is a sea change,' says Jonathan Miller, a New York–based real estate appraisal expert and industry consultant. 'No one has their arms fully around it, but the assumption is that it will take a bite out of commissions especially,' says Miller. The impact on overall housing prices, he says, is slightly foggier—mainly because the far bigger issue is low inventory due to higher mortgage rates. But, Miller says, 'it probably means lower prices, with potential for deeper impact with a more liquid market.'"
CTV News in Canada. "October marked a record month with the number of new listings hitting the market in the London, Ont. region, as the market is beginning to turn in favour of buyers. According to the London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors (LSTAR), there were a total of 1,232 new listings in October -- a record high. 'Amid healthier inventory levels, modest sales, and a surge in new listings, it appears the local housing market is leaning in favour of homebuyers. The scales are tilting, offering buyers greater opportunities,' said Adam Miller, 2023 LSTAR chair. 'In this setting, local homebuyers find themselves with a wealth of choices and a little extra breathing room in their property search. However, some of them are opting to play the waiting game, keeping a close eye on interest rates and wondering if they've truly reached their peak or if they still have room to grow.'"
The Deep Dive in Canada. "Continuing the bewildering trend of under-construction homes in Toronto catching fire, a massive inferno ravaged 35 residences this past Sunday, laying waste to a valuable piece of firefighting equipment in its wake. The alarm was sounded at approximately 4 a.m. as firefighters raced to Simmons Street, located in the vicinity of Highway 27 and Rutherford Road in Vaughan, Greater Toronto Area. This is not the first time a pre-construction real estate project has burned down in Vaughan. In a similar incident that occurred in April, a devastating fire took place, resulting in the damage or destruction of at least 71 home units within a subdivision under construction. Vaughan Fire and Rescue confirmed that the incident affected 32 single homes, 21 townhomes, and 16 firebreak properties. A year ago, a massive fire erupted, engulfing numerous homes under construction in Hamilton. The incident occurred in a recently developed area by Losani Homes near the intersection of Rymal Road and Upper Red Hill Valley Parkway."
The Chronicle Live in the UK. "A Northumberland homeowner has slammed a housing developer for leaving areas of a new estate 'unfinished.' Crystal and Tom Fletcher bought their Persimmon property on St. Nicholas Manor development, Cramlington, three years ago but since moving into the property say the estate has remained unfinished. Crystal said: 'Right from the very start with snags, I've lived here for three years and still have work that hasn't been finished. Is just hanging over us, it is an added stress, trying to chase them to get things done. We have still got our shower in the en-suite is rusty. It went rusty within two years and I reported it in June last year and they have said now they'll fix it after saying the shower needs to be washed and dried after every use. It is just ridiculous. I don't know what shower isn't waterproof.'"
The Oldham Times in the UK. "Homeowners in a new development claim they have been left to deal with an 'eyesore' of 'derelict wasteland' that has attracted rats, fly-tipping and anti-social behaviour after a housing developer 'abandoned' the project. As many as 12 neighbours moved into new build properties on Brookdale Mews in Failsworth four years ago, under the impression that the rest of the development to build a further eight properties was in the works. Jessica and James Knowles were first-time buyers when they moved into the development in 2019, but described their experience as like a 'nightmare.' Ms Knowles was pregnant at the time with their third child and said they had high hopes the rest of the development would be built as they were one of the first families to move in on the street."
"However, they've sat next to the derelict field ever since. Ms Knowles continued: 'I'm annoyed and frustrated. Would we have bought this if we knew it was going to be left? No. It's worrying. In the future, how are we going to sell it?'"
ABC News in Australia. "After keeping rates on hold for the past four meetings, the Reserve Bank has resumed hiking its cash rate target, with a quarter of a percentage point increase taking the benchmark interest rate to 4.35 per cent. The Reserve Bank's governor Michele Bullock warned in her post-meeting statement that it may not be the last. Mozo's Rachel Wastell said a survey of more than 2,000 people commissioned by the rate comparison website found 57 per cent would be under financial stress with a mortgage rate of 6 per cent or higher. 'If the 25 basis point rate hike is passed on in full by all providers, this could take the average variable rate across all providers to 6.87 per cent, and the big four average variable rate to 7.46 per cent,' she observed. 'The data suggests that mortgage holders paying rates starting with six are already under stress, so if the banks hike rates by another quarter of a percentage point, this could push them over the edge.'"
From Bloomberg. "After letting two of the world’s biggest property developers plunge into default, Chinese authorities are attempting to save a third industry giant from following suit. China Vanke Co., the country’s second-largest builder by contracted sales, received an unusually strong show of support from officials in its hometown of Shenzhen on Monday — following a dollar-bond plunge that made Vanke Asia’s worst investment-grade performer last month. Its notes climbed as much as 4 cents Tuesday after some surged a record 12 cents a day earlier. Still, several of them remain at distressed levels of below 80 cents."
"Founded by Wang Shi in 1984 when China’s economy was in the early stages of opening up, Vanke was the country’s largest property developer for years before more aggressive peers Country Garden Holdings Co. and China Evergrande Group topped it. After Wang cautioned in 2013 that China’s real estate sector faced the risk of a 'bubble,' Vanke made early efforts to diversify from property development."
"While regulators are unwilling to see defaults expand to other property firms, be they privately-run or state-backed, the reality is there has been no significant improvement in property sales or financing channels, said Wang Chen. He is co-founder of The Belt&Road Origin (Beijing) Tech Co., a credit risk analysis provider. 'If sales cannot improve,' he said, 'it is meaningless to talk about anything else.'"