Would-Be House Sellers Think The Market Should Behave Like It Did At The Peak Of Frenzy
A report from the Wall Street Journal. "Danielle Tantone and her soon-to-be ex-husband, Michael Tantone, bought their Mesa, Ariz., area home in July 2022 with a mortgage of about $600,000 that carried an interest rate of 5.62%. Both planned to refinance when mortgage rates fell. Instead, they are divorcing and saddled with a house that has fallen in value and that neither can afford on their own. 'It’s currently worth less than we paid for it, so we are forced to short sell,' says Danielle, a nurse. Michael, an insurance agent and part-time elementary-school instructional assistant, plans to stay in the home, although they have stopped making payments, until it sells. 'We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth,' says Michael, who plans to live with friends temporarily."
"Homes are often a couple’s main asset and deciding what to do with it remains a main issue in divorce. Typically, couples sell the home and split the proceeds or one spouse refinances the mortgage and buys out the other spouse’s interest. But with average mortgage rates at 20-year highs, it can be harder to sell or refinance. 'We are working on what some days feels like the impossible: cohabiting and co-parenting in a 1,200-square-foot home,' says one mom sharing a ranch house in Portland, Ore., with her estranged husband."
Sarasota Magazine in Florida. "The recent trend of more houses on the market is staying the course. October inventory in both Sarasota and Manatee counties is the highest it’s been so far this year, according to data compiled by the Realtor Association of Sarasota-Manatee. 'I’m seeing that some people who panic-bought post-pandemic without taking time to do more research are discovering they might not find their neighborhood ideal [for them] and want to move,' says Jana Marie Gouwens, an agent with Preferred Shore Realty. 'Buyers are slowing down somewhat due to interest rates [now at roughly 8 percent for a 30-year fixed mortgage],' she continues. 'But it almost levels out for the buyer, with prices that have cooled somewhat. Sellers have had to lower their asking price for buyers to afford [the houses] along with the interest rates.'"
"In Manatee County, the median sale price for single-family homes decreased by 12.8 percent, to $479,000, while Sarasota County saw a 3.3 percent decrease, bringing the price to $520,000. Gouwens emphasizes that it’s a good time to buy. 'Buyers can get more concessions and more negotiating with the sellers now. There used to be none of that, and it was take it or leave it. Now, if the property is priced right you can still get multiple offers,' she says."
The Providence Journal in Rhode Island. "Shortly after the onset of the pandemic, the housing market went wild. The number of homes listed on the market dramatically dropped, open house lines went down entire blocks and bidding wars erupted as record-low interest rates allowed homebuyers to throw money at sellers. The way Redfin real estate agent Bryan Quinlan sees it, would-be house sellers think the market should behave like it did at the peak of frenzy, when buyers would bid up the price on a house because it cost almost nothing to borrow. 'A lot of sellers are being greedy,' Quinlan said."
"'I think we're seeing buyers at the end of their funds, the end of their savings, and they just can't do anymore,' Quinlan said. With house prices near record highs, and limited inventory, would-be buyers want flawless houses. 'Buyers feel like they need everything,' he said. 'They're paying top dollar, so they want everything to be perfect.' One house Quinlan recently listed for $520,000 went under contract in three days. He took over the listing from another agent, but convinced the seller to lower the price from $575,000, where it had been sitting with no interest. 'If it's overpriced, people are not going to come,' he said."
Bisnow Los Angeles in California. "Los Angeles’ multifamily market, like other sectors in the city and across the country, continues to feel the pain from high interest rates and their cascading repercussions, but transactions haven't totally ground to a halt. Deals that are getting done, according to several multifamily executives, have a common thread running through them: distress. 'We're talking to a couple family offices right now that want to buy what I would call generational, good, long-term product,' said Waterford Property Co. co-founder and Head of Acquisitions and Development Sean Rawson. 'In Orange County, there's a couple core deals that traded at, call it, $450K to $475K a unit. If you were to build that product today, you'd be close to $650K a door. We're starting to see some good opportunities like that.'"
"Rawson gave an example of a distressed office deal that Waterford is pursuing: a property it had made an offer on previously, but the winning bidder won’t be closing the sale. He said ownership is in a time crunch, as it has debt coming due, and has to sell by the end of year. 'Effectively, I think we could come in and buy it for what their loan amount is just to save them from foreclosure, but it's a covered land play — well-located in the Southern California market, zoned residential land,' Rawson said. 'We’re buying that just for land value.'"
"If distress is a key element of getting a deal done, there is a healthy pool of potential deals. The multifamily sector accounts for $7.5B of outstanding distress nationally, with $65.7B of potential distress on the way, third-quarter data from MSCI indicates. MSCI found the sector had the highest potential for imminent trouble, accounting for almost a third of all at-risk properties. 'They're stuck in the pipeline, their carry costs have doubled, and these guys are running around going, ‘How do we make the next payment?’ Kidder Mathews Executive Vice President of Debt and Equity Finance Brad Kraus said. 'There's a lot of pain out there under the surface for those type of guys.'"
The Real Deal on Texas. "The spotlight on multifamily distress in Houston just got brighter, as a southwest suburban apartment complex is slated for a foreclosure auction early next month. A lender has taken steps to foreclose on the 264-unit Retreat at Stafford apartment complex, after the owner, Austin-based GVA Real Estate Group, defaulted on a $288 million loan, Bisnow reported. The loan, issued by LoanCore Capital in February 2022, has five borrowers, all LLCs connected to apartment complexes owned by GVA. In addition to the Stafford apartments, the mortgage is tied to two properties in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, along with two more in Tennessee and South Carolina."
"GVA, which focuses on value-add multifamily investments, is swimming in debt. Earlier this month, it was reported that the firm was delinquent on two loans, totalling $55.6 million and connected to four apartment complexes. GVA defaulted on a $56.3 million loan on a San Antonio apartment complex, recently prompting LoanCore Capital to foreclose on that property as well. This potential foreclosure adds to a growing list of distressed multifamily properties in Harris County. Applesway Investment Group, for instance, has lost five Houston-area apartment properties this year via foreclosure, including the Cabo San Lucas Apartments in the city’s Greenspoint neighborhood."
The Financial Post. "Canada’s housing market is in 'recessionary' territory, and it’s going to get worse before it gets better, economists warned this week. The picture looks even bleaker when viewed by population with per capita sales at lows not seen since the 2008 recession. 'The housing market in Canada is in recessionary territory, as it faces its most significant test since the 1991 recession,' said CIBC economists Benjamin Tal and Katherine Judge. 'And activity will deteriorate further into the first half of 2024 as interest rates remain elevated, and supply floods the market.' New listings have been climbing in recent months, rising 31 per cent from the low in March 2023. 'That surge in part reflects increased distress sales as owners list their properties due to financing issues as mortgages payments increase rapidly,' the economists said."
From Global News. "A Halifax-based realtor says the city is experiencing a housing market slowdown like many parts of Canada. 'We’re finally seeing things on the market stay on the market for 10 days or two weeks, which is totally unusual,' says Priority One Real Estate Owner Mark Stein. 'Six months ago or a year ago, a property would be on the market for four days, 12 offers, and then, poof — sold, gone.' As a result, he says, home prices are softening. 'Consumers are used to them selling quickly, so if they don’t sell within a week or two the sellers are realizing, maybe we’ve overpriced this,' Stein says. 'So prices are actually being reduced, which hasn’t happened in three or four years.'"
The Sun Times in Canada. "Residential building permit demand has plummeted in Grey County this year over the last two years, a county staff report shows. Forty-five per cent fewer residential building permits were issued to the end of September this year over last — 371 units this year compared with 687 last year. It’s also a 53 per cent drop from 788 units two years ago for the same period. County planner Scott Taylor said in an interview that building permits are down but they’re down from 'banner' years. Barry Kruisselbrink, owner of Allenford-based Barry’s Construction, said he has built 'a lot less' this year than last year or the year before."
"'What the problem now is, there’s no sales. It’s not only in Grey-Bruce. It’s all over Ontario.' He said sales are 'probably a little bit worse' than pre-pandemic levels. Someone who before qualified for a $600,000 mortgage now qualifies for half that, he said. 'So it’s making it impossible for people to get a mortgage.' And people who locked in low interest rates for say five years are renewing at higher rates, which will see their mortgage payments 'more than double,' he said. 'There’s going to be a lot of houses that come up that people can’t afford.'"
"Asked about the lower levels of residential building permits, after Thursday’s county council meeting, Warden Brian Milne said he sees it in his own municipality. Anecdotally in Dundalk, part of Southgate Township where he’s mayor, Milne said the developer FLATO Developments had plans to start building over 500 homes this year. 'Well he hasn’t started half that. So that’s just an indication of what’s going on.'"
News.com.au in Australia. "The Victorian government is considering a major change to the process of building apartment blocks after multiple homeowners were stung by a blind spot in the law. In September, news.com.au reported that a loophole had left 77 Melbourne apartment owners financially ruined. Apartment complexes more than three storeys high are not covered by Domestic Building Insurance (DBI) under Victorian law, which means if the builder goes bust, those buildings have no insurance to automatically pay to fix defects."
"This was certainly the case for the 77 residents at a four-storey block in West Footscray, inner Melbourne, who were left them to foot the $4.5 million defect bill themselves. Their builder, Shangri-La Construction, went into liquidation earlier this year after residents had begun a lawsuit against the building firm, leaving them with no recourse. This caused many to find themselves tens of thousands of dollars in debt and forced some to move in with parents, and in case, a resident was left suicidal."
"Zoe Muller, 47, has been forced to move back in with her mother as she drowns in debt. She is $6000 behind in payments. 'Half my wage goes to strata fees, the other 25 per cent goes to mortgage, I have hardly any left over,' she told news.com.au. 'That’s the reason I decided to move (into my mum’s), I couldn’t afford to live anymore really.' Another resident, Jessi*, only managed to save $200 last year amid the rising costs in the apartment. 'Essentially I’m working to live,' the teacher told news.com.au. Others are struggling to accumulate savings, including Maria de Leon, 29, telling news.com.au: 'I didn’t save at all last year. I was eating into my savings.'"