The Times May Feel Bleak For The Many Who Are Only Used To The Feast
A report from KHRD in Texas. "Courtney Ravilla and her husband bought their first home in September. It wasn't an easy process. They were searching for the perfect home for more than a year. 'We went through several houses that we just absolutely loved, but we would put in an offer and then there would be like 10 to 12 other offers at the same time,' Ravilla said of their buying experience. But that is not the case now. Just a few months ago, the Ravillas were fighting for a house. Now, homes are sitting on the market without a buyer. Wendy Flynn, a realtor with Keller Williams Realty in Bryan-College Station, said this increase in interest rates creates a surplus of homes on the market. 'And because there's an increase in the number of homes available, that's more choices for the buyers,' Flynn said."
The Ventura County Star in California. "When developer Shangri-La Industries broke ground last year on a state-funded renovation of the Quality Inn & Suites in Thousand Oaks, the plan was that, by now, the motel would be transformed into permanent housing for formerly homeless people. That didn’t happen. The former Quality Inn & Suites is still mid-renovation, with little or no work happening on the property most days. There’s reason to doubt the project will ever be finished, because Shangri-La hasn’t paid some of its subcontractors and has defaulted on nearly $12 million in loans on the property, according to public records filed with the County of Ventura."
"If the company doesn’t catch up on its payments soon, the lender could foreclose on the property and sell it as early as next month. Six of the seven have 'apparent violations' of Shangri-La’s contracts with the California Department of Housing and Community Development, and the department is 'actively investigating' the company, department spokesperson Pablo Espinoza said. In 2021, BMO Bank loaned Shangri-La $20 million, according to a lawsuit filed earlier this year by BMO in Los Angeles County Superior Court."
"BMO's lawsuit claims that Shangri-La has violated the terms of the loan and has been in default on the payments since April. In a response filed with the court, Shangri-La denied all of the claims in the suit. BMO's lawsuit claims that Shangri-La's financial reports 'do not appear to reflect accurate assets, liabilities and revenue' and showed 'inappropriate use of funds.' For example, the suit states that in November 2022, a bank account used by a company affiliated with Shangri-La paid nearly $1 million in 20 payments to American Express for credit card bills."
The Real Deal. "Recent developments suggest the affordable housing crisis won’t be solved by startups. Veev, a modular housing developer and one of the heavily funded unicorns (startups valued at over $1 billion) in the field, is closing, according to a Crunchbase report. Despite raising $585 million in venture funding, with $400 million secured in a Series D just last year, the San Mateo-based company’s shutdown casts a shadow over the viability of new solutions. Months after its Series D, Veev laid off 30 percent of its staff and pivoted from building high-rises to low-slung homes. The company didn’t say much about the layoffs, referring to it as a 'strategic decision.'"
"Veev recently told lenders that it couldn’t make interest payments on California property acquisitions financed through debt, blaming the economic environment and declining real estate prices in the state. The company has stopped making those payments until the assets are sold. Veev was part of a wave of affordable housing startups that gained enthusiasm during the boom years, envisioning mass production of new homes through prefab components and standardized building processes. Veev’s homes sold for millions, which may have contributed to its downfall. Crunchbase called this a 'chicken-and-egg dilemma' – because it’s hard to make affordable housing without scale, while it’s also hard to scale something that most people can’t afford."
From Geekwire. "Seattle real estate startup Flyhomes has conducted another round of layoffs as the company faces what it calls 'persistent and worsening industry headwinds.' The company did not specify how many employees were impacted, only writing that 'many beloved teammates' had been let go. And a company spokesperson declined to share the company’s current headcount with GeekWire. The startup, which helps home-buyers secure purchases with all-cash offers, laid off an undisclosed number of employees in June. It cut 20% of its workforce in July 2022 and again reduced headcount in November 2022. More cuts appear to have taken place this fall, as Kyle Munson, a former VP of growth marketing at Flyhomes, posted on LinkedIn in November that he was 'laid off a few weeks ago.'"
Yahoo Finance. "The 2024 venture capitalist forecast appears murky so far with many startup companies projected to shut down in the new year. Thomvest Ventures Managing Director Don Butler explains the VC environment and conditions that are serving as a foundation for this early investment forecast. 'What you're starting to see now is… those companies that raised in 2021, call it two and a half years worth of venture capital, coming up towards the end of their capital run. they've tried to cut burn and cut expenses to make the capital last longer,' Butler explains the circumstances to Yahoo Finance. 'But at the same time, you have a revenue environment that's gotten more difficult, especially for a lot of software companies. Now you have… [that] matched with the third factor: venture dollars being invested has come way off.'"
"Sounds like a bleak forecast there for startups in 2024. Why is that? BUTLER: 'Well, if you go back and you look, what we had in 2021 and 2022 was we had a surge in startups that got funded. Like one thing we track is in the same way the housing industry tracks new home starts, we track new venture starts in the form of series A financings. And what's happened is that we saw this great bubble in companies that were formed. And they were formed under a different regime. And in terms of the mentality was all focused on growth, even if they're burning quite a bit. And then we've had this massive regime shift.'"
CTV News in Canada. "An early morning fire destroyed three new homes in the northeast community of Cy Becker on Saturday. The fire was called in around 2:45 a.m. Two of the fires were in homes under construction and the other was in a house that had recently been completed. The neighbour said his home was damaged by one of the fires in the lot next to his. 'I just took a little view inside the house, it's crazy,' he said. 'You cannot imagine that it was your house. It was hard to see your [hard-earned] money burning in front of your own eyes.'"
The Toronto Sun in Canada. "Are we about to witness a mass exodus from the real estate profession? We certainly witnessed an influx during the pandemic when business was booming. It seemed like everyone wanted to be a real estate agent to get in on the action. At one point there were so many deals flying around that it felt like you barely needed to compete for it. All a freshly-minted, new agent needed was a 3-series BMW and a social media strategy and they were in business, literally and figuratively. No one seemed to care that they had no experience and barely a frame of reference. Fake it ’till you make it, baby."
"Now that those days are firmly behind us and it would seem that well has dried up, the industry is certainly deep in the throes of a period of reflection with many agents who felt like a big deal last year now having to grapple with the uncomfortable reality that maybe they’re not so brilliant after all. Maybe, just maybe, their success was entirely attributable to the frenzy of a moment in time – and that moment is now behind us."
"Because business is slow – this most recent September and October were the slowest months in year-over-year comparison in TRREB’s history. Social media is rife with stats on this, some of which are more sensationalistic than others. But even by the most conservative estimate, with just over 63,000 transactions this year to date and TRREB’s membership sitting at 73,000, there isn’t enough business to go around. Once you also consider that the majority of that business was handled by a fraction of those agents, it’s clear that it is dark times for some out there. The industry is in the thick of a much-needed reset. And while the times may feel bleak for the many who are only used to the feast, the other side of the famine will be better for everyone."
The BBC in the UK. "A woman said she was 'convinced' she and her family would lose their home due to the increase in mortgage rates. Natasha Roughton, from Corby, Northamptonshire, said the repayments were set to double in March. As well has their mortgage rate rising by more than 3%, Ms Roughton and her fiancé will also have to start paying interest on their Help to Buy loan. The 39-year-old nurse said it felt as though people had been 'thrown to the wolves.' The mother-of-two has taken on a second job to help with the increase, while her fiancé, Neil, has been doing overtime."
"She said their repayments would increase from about £700-a-month to £1,500-a-month when they remortgage in March. As she was concerned 'things could get a lot worse' she wanted to lock-in a deal at current rates. 'Reading the stories and listening to the radio, we were convinced that we were going to lose our house, our children's home' she said. 'I didn't sleep. We were so anxious. The couple were due to be getting married in July, but Ms Roughton said they were looking at postponing due to the cost of living crisis."
"'We were prepared for an increase due to the Help to Buy loan, but we weren't prepared for this,' she said. 'I've cancelled my gym membership, decreased our TV package, decreased our childcare as much as we can and I've taken on another job while my fiancé does overtime where he can. It makes me really angry.' Ms Roughton said she had 'severe anxiety' that her children would lose their home or she would have to 'choose which child to feed.' 'I've worked very hard, my fiancé's worked really hard and it feels like we have no where to run,' she said. 'We are working harder than ever to make sure we don't lose our home. With the cost of living crisis and now the mortgage crisis, it just feels never-ending. It feels like we're kind of being thrown to the wolves.'"
From Asia News. "This week China concluded its annual economic conference. The leaders of the ruling Communist Party have set the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth target for 2024 at 5%, amid general risks of debt for the entire country and a tendency towards deflation. China's official Xinhua news agency admitted that the Chinese economy is facing several risks and uncertainties, including lack of demand, excess capacity in some sectors and weak expectations of society in general. The sudden collapse of some real estate giants such as Evergrande and Country Garden caused spillover effects that transferred risks to financial institutions and shadow banks. Huge debts have also resulted in paying high prices for home purchases and taking out expensive bank loans for apartments."
"Added to this is the bankruptcy and insolvency of real estate agencies and construction companies, which have left housing projects unfinished. The protest of families who ended up bankrupt for purchasing unfinished buildings has continued since last year and is still an unresolved issue today. Millions of people are on the authorities' blacklist in the credit system due to the inability to repay bank loans. According to Chinese court statistics, the number of people on the blacklist has risen to 8.54 million in the current year, up from 5.7 million in 2020."
"Those on the blacklist are barred from the banking system and cannot purchase airline tickets. Most defaulters are aged between 18 and 59, almost 1% of the total active population. The reasons for non-compliance vary. Some were unable to repay their home loans, others were unable to repay their credit cards due to job loss. After the youth unemployment rate in China exceeded 20%, the Beijing authorities stopped disclosing the data. The meeting which recently concluded also set itself the aim of increasing the country's expectations and confidence, 'strengthening economic propaganda and guiding opinions.'"